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Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL26 Round 5 Tips - Cotton revenge game

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
Editor
Last updated: Tue 14 Oct 2025 13:27

Bryce Cotton of the Adelaide 36ers is set to take on the South East Melbourne Phoenix in a revenge game after scoring in single figures in his last match. Cotton has historically struggled when scoring under 15 points, but with Phoenix's weakest perimeter defense in the league, he's projected to make significant comebacks, possibly surpassing 30 points and hitting multiple threes. Adelaide, as the better offensive team, is expected to score over 92.5 points and win, showcasing Melbourne's defensive vulnerabilities.

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Jeremy Darke 14 Oct 2025
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Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL26 Round 5 Tips

Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Round 5 Expert Tips


Bryce Cotton will go off and will single-handedly take down the South East Melbourne Phoenix in a revenge game against himself.

I would fear for anyone who is coming up against Bryce Cotton after the 5-time MVP scores in single figures in the match prior. Unfortunately for the Phoenix they find themselves in this situation and to make matters worse they are the worst team in the NBL at defending the three ball. 

Cotton’s teams are 1-13 when he scores less than 15 points but I am expecting the newly-crowd Aussie to drop double that against the Phoenix on Thursday night including 4+ threes against the poor Phoenix perimeter defence. 

I am still not convinced about South East Melbourne, especially defensively after giving up 103 points against Melbourne two matches ago. They were solid against the Breakers and Taipans but there is no comparison to what they will face on Thursday night in Adelaide. 

Cotton will score and so will the rest of the 26ers, going over their team total of 92.5 points.  

  • Adelaide have won by 7 points or more in all three of their victories this season. 
  • Bryce Cotton has hit 4+ three pointers in 50% of his games this season.
  • South East Melbourne have an opposition 3P% of 39.7, the worst in the NBL.
  • Adelaide average 93.5 points per game, 3rd-most in the NBL

Head to Head 


NBL25 Match Results
DateHome TeamScoreLineTotal Points
16/02/2025SEMSEM 85-75SEM -3.0U 195.0
02/02/2025SEMSEM 105-99SEM -4.5O 197.5
21/12/2024SEMSEM 106-86SEM -4.5U 193.5
03/10/2024ADEADE 93-83ADE -5.0U 186.5


Offensive & Defensive Rankings
ADE OffRankStatRankSEM Def
93.53PPG587
369RPG944.3
49.3%1FG%644.4%
33.6%33P%1039.9%
11.53TOV119.3

ADE DefRankStatRankSEM Off
87.86PPG294.7
35.81RPG542.7
49.1%9FG%940.5%
29.4%53P%235.0%
13.84TOV29.7


Adelaide 36ers Form & Team News


The Adelaide 3-0 run to start the season was put to a harsh halt with The Sydney Kings coming onto the Entertainment Centre and holding Bryce Cotton to just 7 points and walking away with a 103-79 victory. 

Cotton shot 3-10 from the field and 0-4 from the three-point line to finish the game in single digits for just the 12th time in his 262-game NBL career. It was the 13th loss in 14 games to a Bryce Cotton led team when the MVP has scored less than 15 points. 

The loss was the first for the 36ers this season who have been impressive to open their NBL26 campaign. Cotton has been his usual self (besides the Kings game) but encouraging signs have come from the emergence of former United player Flynn Cameron who has scored in double digit in his last 3 matches while also contributing with an average of 4.3 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game. 

South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News


The Phoenix needed to comeback from a 34-46 deficit at halftime against the Breakers to escape with a 6-point win in New Zealand on Sunday to claim their second victory of the season. It was encouraging that they rallied from a 9-point deficit but it creates nerves for Phoenix fans that they can start the match so poorly. 

After a dominant 37-point victory over Cairns, south East Melbourne have failed to impress, going down to big brother Melbourne by 20 points before needing to fight for victory against the Breakers, who have struggled to start the year. 

Defensively there are some worrying signs, ranked 10th in the league against the three (39.7 O3P%) while also being ranked 9th giving up an average of 44.3 rebounds to their opponents. 

Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions

What time does Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix start?

Tip-off between Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix is at 7:30 PM AEDT, Thursday, October 16

What channel is Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on?

You can watch Adelaide 36ers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.

Verdict

Cotton will go large with 4+ threes, 30+ points and Adelaide will score over 92.5 points as they cover the 5.5 points as the favourite against the Phoenix.
Best Bet1: Adelaide -5.5 Handicap/Line $1.91 at Elitebet - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Adelaide Over 92.5 Team Total $1.91 at Pandabet - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Bryce Cotton 30+ Player Points $2.50 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Bryce Cotton 4+ Three Pointers $2.15 at dabble - 2 Units
Adelaide -5.5
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$1.91 - 2 Units
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Adelaide Over 92.5
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Bryce Cotton
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Betting Slip | 16 Oct 2025

Adelaide 36ers v South East Melbourne Phoenix

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