• Home
  • Basketball
  • NBL

New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL26 Round 4 Tips - Phoenix glide past the Breakers

jeremy-darke
Editor
Last updated: Thu 09 Oct 2025 13:26

The upcoming NBL25 Round 4 game between the New Zealand Breakers and the South East Melbourne Phoenix is creating a buzz. The Phoenix, who haven't played in over two weeks, are set to win and cover the 2.5-point line as favorites. Despite an advantage for the Breakers playing at home, Phoenix’s long break gives them the edge. Experts predict a high-scoring shootout, with Phoenix expected to outpace their opponents. Key players Nathan Sobey and Karim Lopez are anticipated to score significantly, adding to the excitement of the match.

Jeremy Darke 09 Oct 2025
Share this article
Or copy link
  • New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 4 NBL matchup
  • Tip-off is at 2:30 PM AEDT at Spark Arena
  • High-scoring game expected with Phoenix’s strong offence.
  • Key performances from Nathan Sobey and Karim Lopez anticipated.
New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL26 Round 4 Tips

New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Round 4 Expert Tips


The long break will prove to be beneficial for the Phoenix when they travel to New Zealand and get the win and cover the line as the 2.5 point favourites.
  • New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Round 4 Expert Tips
  • Head to Head 
  • New Zealand Breakers Form & Team News
  • South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
  • New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions

South East Melbourne haven't played in over two weeks while the Breakers played on Wednesday, getting their first win of the season against the Hawks. Two different preparations and an advantage goes to the Breakers at home, however, I do not see them putting in the same type of performance that they did against Illawarra where they dropped 45% of their three point shots. 

This match has potential to be a real shootout and we are likely to see a lot of points, especially from the Phoenix, who I believe will skip away in this one. Both teams have ordinary defensive records in the small sample size we have so that helps with the over here. 

Nathan Sobey started the season blissfully against Cairns with 26 points with plenty of time to prepare you can expect that Josh King will be making sure his marquee scoring gets free against the Breakers, so I am backing him for a 20+ game once again.

Karim Lopez start for the Breakers has been impressive, working on his three-ball over the winter. He has 9 threes already this season and he is predicted to drop a couple against the Phoenix who have started the year as the worst team against the three. 

  • SEM covered the line in all three matches against the Breakers last season.
  • Both teams are averaging 90+ opposition points per game.  
  • Karim Lopez has 2 threes or more in his last 4 matches. 
  • Nathan Sobey has scored 20+ points in 2 of his last 3 games against New Zealand.

Head to Head 


NBL25 Match Results
DateHome TeamScoreLineTotal Points
18/01/2025SEMSEM 102-89SEM -6.5O 190.0
24/10/2024NZBSEM 88-62SEM +4.5U 174.5
29/09/2024NZBNZB 81-79SEM +3.0U 183.0

Offensive & Defensive Rankings (Prior to Round 4)
NZB OffRankStatRankSEM Def
82.59PPG790
437RPG643
42.1%8FG%744.7%
23.3%103P%1043.1%
14.39TOV118.5

NZB DefRankStatRankSEM Off
10110PPG298.5
43.58RPG444.5
48.8%10FG%1040.9%
28.1%43P%138.3%
9.39TOV210

New Zealand Breakers Form & Team News


The Breakers picked up their first win of the season getting an impressive 117-88 win over the winless Illawarra Hawks in the first ever Ignite Cup match, played on Wednesday. 

Parker Jackson-Cartwright had a phenomenal performance with 17 assists, 20 points, 6 rebounds and 2 steals, leading the Breakers to victory. Big boys Kareem Lopez (16 pts + 9 rebs) and Sam Mennenga (20 pts + 8 rebs) did the hard work down low, while also sinking 7 threes between them as the Breakers shot at 45% from outside. 

It was a vast improvement for the Breakers, especially on defence, giving up just 88 points, the least of their first 5 games and 10 points less than their season average. The three-point shooting was also key after starting the season poorly with a 28.5 3P%, ranking 7th in the NBL.

South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News


It has been an age since the South East Melbourne Phoenix have played, playing 2 games in 5 days going 1-1 and then resetting for 17 days before their third match of the season. How that affects them will be seen on Sunday.

The Phoenix where impressive in their first match at home against Cairns, getting up 114-77 but were outplayed against their big brother Melbourne United going down by 20 points 103-83. Two different performances that had plenty of time to be dissected by coach Josh King. 

The major difference between the two matchups was the dominance of the front court with Jordan Hunter and Malique Lewis powering over a crippled Cairns Taipans. Against United they were out rebounded 38-45 with Hunter and Lewis getting outmuscled. 

New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions

What time does New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix start?

Tip-off between New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix is at 2:30 PM AEDT, Sunday, October 12

What channel is New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on?

You can watch New Zealand Breakers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.

Verdict

S.E Melbourne will cover as 2.5 point favourites in a high scoring match that hits over the game total. Nathan Sobey will contribute 20+ points for the Phoenix and Karim Lopez will drop a couple of threes for the Breakers.
Best Bet1: S.E Melbourne -2.5 Handicap/Line $1.95 at Pandabet - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Over 181.5 Game Total $1.88 at picklebet - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Nathan Sobey 20+ Player Points $2.45 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Karim Lopez 2+ Three Made $1.70 at dabble - 2 Units
S.E Melbourne -2.5
Handicap/Line
$1.95 - 3 Units
Pandabet
It's Black & White

The Pandabet.com.au code is BETSAUS. 18+. T&Cs apply.

Bet at Pandabet
Over 181.5
Game Total
$1.88 - 2 Units
Same Game & Race Multis
Use affiliate code BETSAU

Exciting new betting app now live. Use code BETSAU on sign-up. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. Imagine what you could be buying instead.

Bet at picklebet
Nathan Sobey
20+ Player Points
$2.45 - 1 Unit
Download the dabble app
with referral code BETSAU

Download the dabble app, enter referral code BETSAU to enjoy Dabble, the betting app with a difference! Bet as normal with & also be part of Australia's betting community where you can follow punters and sports stars, copy their bets, have banter with your mates & watch Sky Racing channels. 18+. T&Cs apply. What are you prepared to lose today? Set a deposit limit.

Bet at dabble
Karim Lopez
2+ Three Made
$1.70 - 2 Units
Download the dabble app
with referral code BETSAU

Download the dabble app, enter referral code BETSAU to enjoy Dabble, the betting app with a difference! Bet as normal with & also be part of Australia's betting community where you can follow punters and sports stars, copy their bets, have banter with your mates & watch Sky Racing channels. 18+. T&Cs apply. What are you prepared to lose today? Set a deposit limit.

Bet at dabble

Top Betting Sites

Betting offers

Upcoming Events

Load More
Betting Slip | 12 Oct 2025

New Zealand Breakers v South East Melbourne Phoenix

Hear more from bets.com.au