New Zealand Breakers vs Adelaide 36ers NBL26 Round 18 Tips - Adelaide Tipped to Snap Losing Streak

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Thu 22 Jan 2026 11:19

Ryan Tucker 22 Jan 2026

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New Zealand Breakers vs Adelaide 36ers expert predictions for Friday’s Round 18 NBL matchup
Tip-off is at 5:30 PM AEDT at Spark Arena
Adelaide 36ers expected to win vs NZ Breakers.
Adelaide boasts a league-best 8-2 road record.
Predicted low-scoring game, favoring the 36ers' defense.

New Zealand Breakers vs Adelaide 36ers

New Zealand Breakers vs Adelaide 36ers NBL25 Round 18 Expert Tips

Adelaide are tipped to rebound from 2 straight losses to take the win in New Zealand against the Breakers. This article explains why that prediction is likely to occur.

New Zealand Breakers vs Adelaide 36ers NBL25 Round 18 Expert Tips
Head to Head
Last 5 Match Results
Offensive & Defensive Rankings
New Zealand Breakers Form & Team News
Adelaide 36ers Form & Team News
New Zealand Breakers vs Adelaide 36ers Frequently Asked Questions

This is the 2nd of 3 matchups between these two teams this season and with Adelaide only winning by 4 points in the November matchup, the line is set at 4.5 pts taking both team’s recent form into account.

That is where value can be found. New Zealand have not been good at home this season, they are 4-7 in New Zealand and more specifically 3-5 at Spark Arena. While their recent record has been positive with scoring way over their season average, it is important to look at which teams they have faced. Illawarra, Cairns and SE Melbourne are all bottom 4 in opposition scoring.

Adelaide are the number 3 ranked defence on the season and number 1 ranked over the past 10 games. New Zealand are averaging 89.7 pts per game, 7th in the league and managed just 79 pts in the previous matchup, albeit in November.

The 36ers have lost back to back games for the first time this season and that is another indicator that has likely affected the line in the Breakers’ favour. History suggests they rebound strongly also taking into account their league best 8-2 record on the road this season.

The bookies have the game total set at 178.5 signalling a low scoring match which fits the script above with New Zealand’s recent scoring run coming to an end.

Take Adelaide to win and cover the -4.5 line as the road favourite. Take the Under 178.5, banking on the Adelaide defence while also taking Bryce Cotton to shoulder the bulk of the scoring for Adelaide going over 25.5 pts.

Adelaide have not lost 3 in a row this season and only 2 in a row once (current streak)
The 36ers have won 3 straight against New Zealand, the most recent in New Zealand while also having the league’s best away record at 8-2.
2 straight matchups have gone Under the Game Total. Adelaide have the number 1 ranked defence over the past 10 games and are 14-11 to the Under this season.
Bryce Cotton scored 23 in the most recent matchup against New Zealand, averaging 41 pts in his last 3 against them and has gone over this total in 5 of his 7 career games at Spark Arena.

Head to Head

Last 5 Match Results

Date	Home Team	Score	Line	Total Points
06/11/2025	NZB	ADE 83-79	ADE -3.5	U 178.5
26/01/2025	ADE	ADE 94-78	ADE -12.0	U 186.5
14/12/2024	ADE	ADE 111-94	ADE -7.0	O 182.0
02/11/2024	NZB	NZB 109-82	NZB +2.5	O 172.0
18/02/2024	ADE	ADE 76-70	ADE +5.5	U 181.5

Offensive & Defensive Rankings

NZB Off	Rank	Stat	Rank	ADE Def
88.7	7	PPG	3	86.1
41.8	5	RPG	1	40.4
44.8%	6	FG%	5	44.4%
29.1%	9	3P%	2	30.0%
11.6	5	TOV	7	10.6

NZB Def	Rank	Stat	Rank	ADE Off
90.1	6	PPG	4	91.7
41.7	5	RPG	7	41.7
46.1%	7	FG%	3	45.9%
32.0%	4	3P%	1	35.6%
12.7	4	TOV	3	10.3

New Zealand Breakers Form & Team News

New Zealand had a 2 game win streak snapped on Wednesday, going down to SE Melbourne 123-116. The game was effectively over at half time with the Phoenix leading by 20 pts, 74-54. The final score more representative of who was on the court in the 2nd half.

With Tasmania losing on Thursday to the Kings, New Zealand are still in with a chance to catch the JackJumpers in 6th spot on the ladder and the final play-in spot with 7 games remaining on the calendar.

In the loss to SEM it was once again PJC and Sam Mennenga who carried the scoring with 26 and 28 points respectively. PJC added 9 assists but had 5 turnovers. The team ranks 7th in scoring and 6th in opposition points.

Adelaide 36ers Form & Team News

Adelaide are on a 2 game slide, the first time this season that they have lost back to back matches. Both the losses came at home where they were previously 11-2, the best home record in the league.

The major takeaway from those two games was Adelaide’s 3pt shooting. They lead the league in 3pt% this season with 35.6% but shot 26.9% against Tasmania in Round 16 and then 26.1% against SE Melbourne at Hoops Fest last weekend.

Bryce Cotton still managed 30 pts in the most recent loss going 9-15 from 2pt range and 9-10 from the charity stripe. The supporting cast of Zylan Cheatham, Flynn Cameron and Isaac Humphries are doing what they can but it has been rare of late to have multiple players playing well on the same night.