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South East Melbourne Phoenix vs New Zealand Breakers NBL26 Round 18 Tips - Phoenix edge closer to top spot

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
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Last updated: Mon 19 Jan 2026 12:57

In the NBL25 Round 18, South East Melbourne Phoenix is predicted to win against New Zealand Breakers, expected to cover a 7.5-point spread. The experts cite Phoenix's strong home performance and recent victory over the league leaders, the Adelaide 36ers, as indicators of their potential. Owen Foxwell and Jordan Hunter are anticipated to make significant contributions. Despite the Breakers' recent wins, inconsistent performances and shooting challenges are concerns. Fans can expect a dynamic game, with Phoenix's scoring pressure likely to steer the outcome in their favor.

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Jeremy Darke 19 Jan 2026
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  • South East Melbourne Phoenix vs New Zealand Breakers expert predictions for Wednesday’s Round 18 NBL matchup
  • Tip-off is at 7:30 PM AEDT at State Basketball Centre
  • Phoenix has a strong offensive record against New Zealand Breakers.
  • Owen Foxwell and Jordan Hunter anticipated as key players.
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs New Zealand Breakers NBL26 Round 18 Tips

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs New Zealand Breakers NBL25 Round 18 Expert Tips


This will be a routine win for the Phoenix who are predicted to cover the 7.5 points as the home favourite being the first team to get over Ignite Cup leaders the New Zealand Breakers.

The Breakers have hit some form, albeit against bottom-rung teams while the Phoenix took out championship favourites the 36ers at Hoops Fest on Sunday. The hangover from that crucial victory is the only thing that has me worried here, however, after two consecutive wins from New Zealand, they are due for a loss if their season trends are anything to go off.

An injury cloud over Nathan Sobey still exists after missing the match against Adelaide, however, with or without Sobey the scoring doesn’t stop and the Phoenix will put three-point shooting pressure on the Breakers, an area they rank ninth with a 3P% of just 29%.

Scorning can come from anywhere from the Phoenix so I am avoiding that market with concerns over Sobey. I expect Owen Foxwell to continue to be the deliverer on offence and bank 5+ dimes. With shooting accuracy often a problem for the Breakers, Jordan Hunter will find himself with his eighth consecutive 7+ rebound game against New Zealand.

  • South East Melbourne have won their last 4 matches against New Zealand.
  • SEM have scored 100+ points in 4 of their last 5 matches.
  • Owen Foxwell has averaged 6.2 assists in his last 5 matches
  • Jordan Hunter has had 7+ rebound in his last 7 matches against New Zealand

Head to Head 


Last 5 Match Results

DateHome TeamScoreLineTotal Points
13/12/2025SEMSEM 92-80SEM -5.5U 187.0
12/10/2025NZBSEM 87-81SEM -2.0U 186.0
18/01/2025SEMSEM 102-89SEM -6.5O 190.0
24/10/2024NZBSEM 88-62SEM +4.5U 174.5
29/09/2024NZBNZB 81-79SEM +3.0U 183.0

Offensive & Defensive Rankings

SEM OffRankStatRankNZB Def
99.21PPG690.1
41.68RPG541.7
43.7%10FG%746.1%
34.3%33P%432.0%
10.22TOV412.7

SEM DefRankStatRankNZB Off
91.27PPG788.7
42.89RPG541.8
47.3%10FG%644.8%
34.8%93P%929.1%
17.41TOV511.6

South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News


South East Melbourne have announced themselves as serious contenders for the NBL Championship after ruining the Cotton show at Hoops Fest, beating league leaders the Adelaide 36ers 108-89 at RAC Arena on Sunday.

The win was made more impressive doing it without MVP candidate Nathan Sobey in the lineup. Ian Clark stepped into the starting guard role and didn’t miss a beat, sinking 5-9 from three and finishing with 27 points, while Owen Foxwell clearly took over as the sole playmaker with 12 assists and 15 points as Jordan Hunter played the big-man role with 20 points and 9 rebounds. 

It was another match dominated by 3-point shooting for the Phoenix who as a collective dropped 11 perimeter shots at 37.9% leading the league with an average of 34.3 3P%. If SEM converts over 30% from outside they win their games, constantly putting scoreboard pressure on their opponents.

New Zealand Breakers Form & Team News


The Breakers held onto their finals hopes for another week, getting a very important 104-86 win over the Cairns Taipans at Hoops Fest on Saturday, while sixth-placed Tasmania dropped their match in Perth.

This is the thing with the Breakers, when they are on they are on, scoring over 100 points in their last two matches shooting at over 50% from the field and 30% from three. When they do that they are in any game, however, the consistency has been the problem for them, falling away from their gameplan early and chasing shooting opportunities. 

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs New Zealand Breakers Frequently Asked Questions

What time does South East Melbourne Phoenix vs New Zealand Breakers start?

Tip-off between South East Melbourne Phoenix vs New Zealand Breakers is at 7:30 PM AEDT, Wednesday, January 21

What channel is South East Melbourne Phoenix vs New Zealand Breakers on?

You can watch South East Melbourne Phoenix vs New Zealand Breakers on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.

Verdict

South East Melbourne will score over 98.5 points and cover the 7.5- point line as the favourite. Owen Foxwell will tally 5+ assists and Jordan Hunter will notch 7+ boards.
Best Bet1: S.E Melbourne -7.5 Handicap/Line $1.92 at Playup - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Over 98.5 Team Total $1.95 at picklebet - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Owen Foxwell 5+ Assists $1.75 at dabble - 3 Units
Best Bet4: Jordan Hunter 7+ Rebounds $2.55 at dabble - 1 Unit
S.E Melbourne -7.5
Handicap/Line
$1.92 - 2 Units
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Jordan Hunter
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Betting Slip | 21 Jan 2026

South East Melbourne Phoenix v New Zealand Breakers

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