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South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats NBL26 Seeding Qualifier Tips - Wildcats book their spot in the semis

jeremy-darke
Jeremy Darke
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Last updated: Mon 02 Mar 2026 08:58

The Perth Wildcats secured a direct place in the semi-finals by defeating South East Melbourne Phoenix in the NBL25 seeding qualifier. The Wildcats' defense, paired with standout performances from Dylan Windler and Elijah Pepper, proved too strong for the Phoenix, whose reliance on three-point shooting faltered against Perth's defensive wall. Windler matched his career-high score with 27 points in their last meetup, showcasing the Wildcats' depth and strategy. Despite Phoenix leading the league in scoring, their inconsistent defense and dependence on three-pointers were significant drawbacks in this matchup.

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Jeremy Darke 02 Mar 2026
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  • South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats NBL26 Seeding Qualifier Tips
  • Perth Wildcats are favoured due to their strong defence.
  • Phoenix heavily rely on three-point attempts but face tough defence.
  • Perth players Elijah Pepper and Dylan Windler hold key roles.
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats NBL26 Seeding Qualifier Tips

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats NBL25 Seeding Qualifier Expert Tips


The physicality and depth of the Wildcats starting five will once again be the difference when they take a direct place in the semi-finals.

The Wildcats defence has been the difference this season, especially in their last two matches against the Phoenix holding South East Melbourne below their season scoring average which has resulted in two victories in January 2026. 

On the flip-side, the Phoenix defence ranks bottom four in most key categories, relying heavily on their three-point percentage to win matches. It has worked for the most part this season, but the match up against Perth is not favourable with the Wildcats defence allowing very few points and being the most difficult team to shoot against.

You would expect this one to be another shoot out as the last couple of matches with Perth eventually getting on top, especially if Elijah Pepper continues his late-season form getting himself open against the Phoenix, who he has averaged 20 points against in their last two matchups. 

Dylan Windler will also be a game-changer for the Wildcats with the Phoenix giving space on the outside, allowing their opponents to score at 34.5% from three. Windler had a tied career-highest score of 27 points when the pair faced each other on January 10 in Melbourne.

  • Perth have won their last 2 matches against South East Melbourne.
  • The previous two matches between the Phoenix and Wildcats have had game totals of 204 and 194.
  • Elijah Pepper has averaged 16.66 points in his last 6 matches.
  • Dylan Windler has had 2 of his 3 highest scoring games of the season (23 + 27) against South East Melbourne.

Head to Head 


Last 5 Match Results
DateHome TeamScoreLineTotal Points
28/01/2026PERPER 101-93PER +3.5U 194.5
10/01/2026SEMPER 107-97PER +5.0O 187.0
18/12/2025PERSEM 77-76SEM +1.5U 184.5
02/11/2025SEMSEM 94-89PER +5.5U 185.5
11/02/2025PERPER 122-105PER -5.5O 202.5

Offensive & Defensive Rankings
SEM OffRankStatRankPER Def
100.71PPG186.1
41.85RPG441
44.1%8FG%143.1%
35.1%33P%633.4%
10.12TOV610.8

SEM DefRankStatRankPER Off
92.87PPG790.8
42.49RPG342.9
47.8%9FG%545.7%
34.5%93P%832.0%
16.81TOV411

South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News


The Phoenix have impressed in NBL26 and were in the fight for the minor premiership until the final rounds but fell a couple of wins short. 

Josh King has had the same philosophy for his team all year, if you have a shot take it, especially from beyond the arc and that has shown on the stats sheet with S.E Melbourne leading the league in scoring all season long. 

The Phoenix take 6.6 more three-point attempts than any other team in the NBL and sinking 2.3 more than the rest of the league. This offensive structure has worked for the most part for the King and the Phoenix this season, however, have an off night from outside and run a big risk of losing the match. 

Nathan Sobey’s season had the veteran in the running for the MVP and put him alongside teammate John Brown lll in the All-NBL First Team. Sobey averaged a career-best 22 points per game along with 4.7 assists and 1.8 steals. 

Perth Wildcats Form & Team News


Perth’s success has been well deserved in NBL26 making the transition of life after now 6-time MVP Bryce Cotton. It wasn’t easy and John Rillie had to find a new identity for his team, building a more balanced offence based around their bigs. A complete flip on what they have been during the Cotton Era.

Kristian Doolittle has taken on his new role, averaging his NBL career-best with 16.6 points, 7.4 rebounds and 3.6 assists. Doolittle plays physical when needed but is most dangerous when he finds his rhythm from outside, dropping threes at 34.6%. With Jo Lual-Acuil in the paint, the Wildcats boast arguably the best frontcourt in the NBL. 

The backcourt was always the question mark for Rillie this season, however the longer the season went on the more Dylan Windler and even of late Elijah Pepper have stepped up their game lifting the Wildcats offence, which averaged 95.03 points in their final 12 matches of the season.

The offence of the Wildcats is the perfect compliment to the best defence in the NBL which gave up an average of just 86.1 points per game in NBL26. 

South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats Frequently Asked Questions

What time does the South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats start?

Tip-off between South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats is at 7:30 PM AEDT, Wednesday, March the 4th

What channel is South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats on?

You can watch South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.

Where can I livestream South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Perth Wildcats?

If you are outside of Australia, the NBL allows you to stream live on YouTube via the official NBL channel

Verdict

Perth will advance in a match that has over 187.5 points. Both Dylan Windler and Elijah Pepper will drop 15+ points for Perth
Best Bet1: Perth Wildcats Money Line $2.40 at NextBet - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Over 187.5 Game Total $1.91 at Teambet - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Dylan Windler 15+ Points $2.15 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Elijah Pepper 15+ Points $2.50 at dabble - 1 Unit
Perth Wildcats
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$2.40 - 2 Units
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South East Melbourne Phoenix v Perth Wildcats

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