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Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL26 Round 11 Tips - Phoenix tipped to return to form in Snakepit
The Illawarra Hawks are set to face off against South East Melbourne Phoenix in Round 11 of the NBL25. Despite both teams having questions around recent form, South East Melbourne remains a favorite due to their consistent offensive performance, averaging 96.5 points per game. After an unexpected home loss against Adelaide, the Phoenix are expected to bounce back, focusing on their team-oriented playstyle. Illawarra struggles with consistency and relies heavily on Javale McGee. Predictions suggest a victory for South East Melbourne due to their scoring strength against Illawarra's weak defense.
- Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 11 NBL matchup
- Tip-off is at 7:30 PM AEDT at WIN Entertainment Centre
- South East Melbourne favored to win against Illawarra due to strong offensive stats.
- Illawarra struggles with defense, allowing the highest points per game in the league.
- Phoenix expected to bounce back after prior loss, focusing on team-oriented playstyle.
Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL26 Round 11 Tips - Phoenix tipped to return to form in Snakepit
Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Round 11 Expert Tips
Two teams with a point to prove will kick off a Thursday night double header in Round 11 of the NBL, South East Melbourne tipped to come away with the win as the favourites.
- Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Round 11 Expert Tips
- Head to Head
- Last 5 Match Results
- Offensive & Defensive Rankings
- Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
- South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
- Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions
The league’s 2nd best scoring team will travel to the league’s worst scoring defence with questions around form swirling for both teams after out of character performances prior to the international break.
With half the season in the bag, South East Melbourne have been one of the most consistent teams in the league, especially offensively. Averaging 96.5 pts per game, they also boast the best scoring bench, highest average assist rate and best 3pt percentage. But in their final game before the break against Adelaide, they cut their rotation to 8 players, had just 6 pts from their bench and shot 29.7% from deep.
Illawarra are a completely different team this year and it's not just personnel. The game-play is different, the culture seems different and the balance around the court is also different. Their consistency is severely lacking and the reliance on Javale McGee to carry the bulk of the load hurts when teams are able to affect him.
The expectation is that South East Melbourne will have learned a lot from their bad choices in the loss to Adelaide. Expect them to come out swinging and revert to the team first culture that saw them reach amazing heights earlier in the year.
Take the Phoenix to win and cover the interestingly short line. Against the league’s worst defence, take SEM Team total Over. Owen Foxwell to grab 5+ assists in the game is a lock and a sprinkle on Sobey 25+ is worth a shout.
- South East Melbourne won the first matchup this season 116-76 as 2pt favourites.
- Illawarra are allowing 97.2 pts per game to opponents, worst in the NBL
- Prior to their loss to Adelaide, Owen Foxwell had 18 assists in 3 games. SEM lead the league in average assists per game. Illawarra rank 2nd last in opposition assists.
- Nathan Sobey has scored 20+ in 3 of his last 5 vs Illawarra, twice hitting 25 pts. He has also hit 25+ in 4 of his last 7 games as the road favourite.
Head to Head
Last 5 Match Results
| Date | Home Team | Score | Line | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | SEM | SEM 116-76 | SEM -2.0 | O 185.5 |
| 05/03/2025 | ILL | ILL 126-96 | ILL -6.5 | O 197.5 |
| 02/03/2025 | SEM | SEM 101-94 | SEM +2.5 | U 196.5 |
| 28/02/2025 | ILL | ILL 101-94 | ILL -6.5 | U 197.0 |
| 31/12/2024 | ILL | SEM 110-105 | SEM +7.5 | O 202.5 |
Offensive & Defensive Rankings
| ILL Off | Rank | Stat | Rank | SEM Def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 88.8 | 6 | PPG | 7 | 88.4 |
| 45 | 1 | RPG | 9 | 42.6 |
| 45.4% | 4 | FG% | 9 | 46.3% |
| 32.9% | 5 | 3P% | 9 | 35.6% |
| 15.2 | 10 | TOV | 1 | 18.5 |
| ILL Def | Rank | Stat | Rank | SEM Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 97.2 | 10 | PPG | 2 | 96.5 |
| 42.2 | 7 | RPG | 7 | 41 |
| 43.9% | 3 | FG% | 10 | 42.7% |
| 34.4% | 8 | 3P% | 1 | 37.4% |
| 10.5 | 8 | TOV | 3 | 10.6 |
Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
Illawarra hit the international break on a 3 game skid, losing to the Kings in round 9 before a double loss in round 10, first to Adelaide 97-85 then to Melbourne United 105-102 in a Championship rematch.
The Hawks pushed Melbourne to the brink, led by Javale McGee who racked up 28 pts, 12 boards as well as 3 assists, 1 steal and 2 blocks. QJ Peterson added 22 pts off the bench while Will Hickey and Tyler Harvey both scored in double digits.
It was a return to the high paced scoring we saw from Illawarra last year that helped them secure a title but unfortunately their defence, especially around the perimeter, was too lacklustre to stop the Melbourne scoring.
South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
Round 10 was a mixed bag for the Phoenix as they had a double game week before the international break. A first up win over the Brisbane Bullets 103-76 was punctuated by a strong start and equally strong finish, Jordie Hunter going off for 24, 9 and 2.
But then they backed up a couple days later with a loss at home to the Adelaide 36ers 94-81. A very unusual game for SEM who played just an 8 man rotation and had just 6 scorers on the night, a long way away from the usual league leading bench unit and NBL’s best scoring offence.
Whether or not there were considerations within the team that forced that hand or it was purely tactical remains to be seen. For Phoenix fans they will be hoping for a return to what has brought them so much success this season, a deep bench and players sharing the ball.
Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix start?
Tip-off between Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix is at 7:30 PM AEDT, Thursday, December 4
What channel is Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on?
You can watch Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.
Verdict
Take the Phoenix to win and cover the interestingly short line. Against the league’s worst defence, take SEM Team total Over. Owen Foxwell to grab 5+ assists in the game is a lock and a sprinkle on Sobey 25+ is worth a shout.
Phoenix -2.5
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SEM Over 94.5
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