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Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Tips - Hawks to book spot in Grand Final series

ryan-tucker
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Last updated: 03 Mar 2025
Ryan Tucker 03 Mar 2025
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  • Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix expert predictions for Wednesday’s Semi-Final NBL matchup
  • Tip-off is at 7:30 PM AEDT at WIN Entertainment Centre
  • Best bet - Illawarra to win by 6+ pts
  • Tyler Harvey and Trey Kell III expected to regain form, leading the team.
  • Hawks have a strong home game record with significant contributions from the bench.
Ryan gives his best picks for the upcoming semi-final matchup between Illawarra and South East Melbourne.

Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Tips


Illawarra will take the victory in Game 3 with their elite shooting recovering from a poor night in Game 2.
  • Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Tips
  • Head to Head 
  • 2025 Semi-Final Results
  • 2024/25 Season Series
  • Regular Season Offensive & Defensive Rankings
  • Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
  • South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
  • Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions

The Hawks star guard duo Tyler Harvey and Trey Kell III had a rough shooting night in Game 2 combining for just 16 pts on 4-23 from the field. Harvey who ranks 11th in the league this season in scoring had his worst night of the season hitting just 23.1% of shots for 10 pts. He is otherwise in career best form hitting 46% from the field and 38.6% from distance.

TKIII is also in career best form shooting 42.3% from the field this season contributing 17.8 pts per game as the leagues 12th best scorer. He managed just 1-10 in the loss but got to the stripe on 6 occasions, sinking 4. 

South East Melbourne forced 13 turnovers from the Hawks who were the stingiest team at giving up the ball this season with only 9.6 giveaways per game. They were not able to restrict the effort though from the Hawks who exceeded their average field goal attempts by a whopping 7 shots in game 2. The bench unit from Illawarra has scored 91 pts in the two games played.

My expectation is that Harvey or Kell (or both) quickly rediscover their shooting form at home and propel the Hawks to a comfortable victory. They will have solid backup from the bench unit who have produced all season long.

Take the Hawks to win by 6 or more, going over their team total with Trey Kell to score 20+ points. 

  • The Hawks average win margin at home this season is 19.8 pts. 
  • Illawarra average 104.3 pts per game at WEC this season.
  • South East Melbourne have allowed their opponent to score 100+ points in 8 of their last 9 road games, losing the last 4 in a row.
  • Trey Kell is averaging 20 pts per game at home this season, scoring 23+ in 3 of his last 4 games played there.

Head to Head 


2025 Semi-Final Results


Mar 2nd 25: South East Melbourne 101-94 Illawarra
Feb 28th 25: Illawarra 101-94 South East Melbourne

2024/25 Season Series


South East Melbourne won the regular season series 2-1.

Regular Season Offensive & Defensive Rankings


ILL OffRankStatRankSEM Def
101.41PPG691.6
44.41RPG641.2
48.6%1FG%545.9%
35.3%43P%535.5%
9.61TOV312.3

ILL DefRankStatRankSEM Off
91.23PPG396.1
40.35RPG541.6
44.2%2FG%446.6%
33.9%33P%933.9%
125TOV310.6

Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News


The Hawks had a terrible shooting night in game 2 which ultimately allowed their opponent to get the better of them. Their star guards combined for 16 points on 4-23 shooting while the team reached just 58% from the free throw line. 

Coach Tatum’s use of the bench kept them in the game as 6 players all saw game time adding 55 pts combined to the total in the absence of points from the starters. 

Illawarra have been a monster at home this season blasting their opponents off the park. Their average win margin at WIN Entertainment Centre is 19.8 pts where they have a 11-4 record including finals.

South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News


South East Melbourne took advantage of a rough night from their opponents in Game 2 capitalising on the 10 extra possessions afforded to them compared to Game 1. 

The biggest difference maker was Matt Hurt who put up 30 points on 11-19 shooting, hitting 4 of 7 from downtown keeping the momentum rolling for the Phoenix. Nathan Sobey added 25 points with Angus Glover and Owen Foxwell combining for 26 pts from the pine, the only two reserves that saw significant game time or even took a shot.

The Phoenix have had a disastrous time on the road this season with a 7-10 record including finals games. Their average losing margin is 8.1 pts per game away from John Cain where they have been a below average team in opponent scoring and rebounding.

Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions

What time does Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix start?

Tip-off between Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix is at 7:30 PM AEDT, Wednesday, March 5th

What channel is Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on?

You can watch Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.

Verdict

Take the Hawks to win by 6 or more, going over their team total with Trey Kell to score 20+ points.
Best Bet1: Illawarra 6+ Winning Margin $2.00 at picklebet - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Over 99.5 Team Total $1.87 at dabble - 2 Units
Best Bet3: T Kell 20+ Player Points $2.05 at PuntZone - 1 Unit
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Illawarra 6+
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Betting Slip | 05 Mar 2025

Illawarra Hawks v SE Melbourne Phoenix