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Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Semi-Final Tips - Hawks momentum to continue despite long lay-off
The Illawarra Hawks face the South East Melbourne Phoenix in the NBL25 Semi-Final with an optimistic outlook following a successful regular season. Despite securing a 2-1 series lead against the Hawks, SEM has struggled defensively, creating opportunities that Illawarra could exploit. Having led the league in scoring and key offensive stats, the Hawks are poised to take advantage of SEM's vulnerabilities. Tyler Harvey's performance is expected to play a crucial role. The Hawks haven’t played for 21 days, but with a minor premiership win and superior form, they are favorites to take the lead.
- Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix expert predictions for Friday’s NBL Finals matchup
- Tip-off is at 7:30 PM AEDT at WIN Entertainment Centre
- The Illawarra Hawks are expected to leverage their strong season finish to defeat South East Melbourne Phoenix in the first Semi-Final.
- While SEM won the regular season series 2-1, their defensive inconsistencies could give Illawarra an edge.
- Key player Tyler Harvey is projected to excel, contributing crucial points against SEM's defense.
Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Tips
The Illawarra Hawks momentum from the regular season will continue through this first Semi-Final game as they are expected to beat South East Melbourne at home and go 1-0 up in the series.
- Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Tips
- Head to Head
- 2024/25 Match Results
- 2023/24 Season Series
- Offensive & Defensive Rankings
- Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
- South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
- Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions
The Phoenix won the regular season series 2-1 against Illawarra but have had inconsistencies on the defensive end of the floor in the closing weeks of NBL25 as well as in the play-in games. They allowed the Adelaide 36ers to get out to a 21 point lead in their elimination game and if it wasn’t for a 36ers self implosion would not be in this game at all.
Illawarra dominated the last portion of the season heading into the finals with an 8-2 record and minor premiership under their belt. They lead the league in scoring, field goal% and points in the paint where SEM rank 3rd last in the league over the last 5 rounds of the season.
It is here I believe the difference will be for Illawarra. They are able to attack in a multitude of ways with a number of different weapons. Josh King will attempt to adjust his lineups but will likely fall flat with the speed and agility of the Hawks too much to contend with.
Expect the Hawks to come out firing early taking the 1st quarter and pushing the scoring taking them over their team total. Tyler Harvey has matched up well against SEM, take him to go over his points total.
- Illawarra have won 5 of their last 6 first quarters and have gone on to win the game outright on all 5 occasions.
- SEM are 3-7 in their last 10 road games allowing an average of 102 pts per game to opponents.
- The Phoenix have a 7-12 record this season as the Underdog.
- Tyler Harvey has scored 20+ pts in 6 of the last 7 games against SEM at home.
Head to Head
2024/25 Match Results
Dec 31st 24: Illawarra 105-110 South East Melbourne
Nov 30th 24: South East Melbourne 103-100 Illawarra
Oct 26th 24: South East Melbourne 82-88 Illawarra
2023/24 Season Series
Illawarra Hawks won 3-0
Offensive & Defensive Rankings
| ILL Off | Rank | Stat | Rank | SEM Def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101.4 | 1 | PPG | 6 | 91.6 |
| 44.4 | 1 | RPG | 6 | 41.2 |
| 48.6% | 1 | FG% | 5 | 45.9% |
| 35.3% | 4 | 3P% | 5 | 35.5% |
| 9.6 | 1 | TOV | 3 | 12.3 |
| ILL Def | Rank | Stat | Rank | SEM Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91.2 | 3 | PPG | 3 | 96.1 |
| 40.3 | 5 | RPG | 5 | 41.6 |
| 44.2% | 2 | FG% | 4 | 46.6% |
| 33.9% | 3 | 3P% | 9 | 33.9% |
| 12 | 5 | TOV | 3 | 10.6 |
Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
The Hawks finished the regular season on top of the ladder with a 20-9 record, taking the minor premiership for the first time in the club’s history.
Finishing first has though it’s drawbacks with the Hawks not having played a competitive game of basketball in 21 days by the time they step onto the court against SEM. The break has allowed Darius Days to continue his rehabilitation from injury but definitely will have an effect on the momentum that the Hawks had built up through the last third of the season.
In their last 10 games, Illawarra had a 8-2 record and finished out the season as the number 1 scoring team. They averaged 101.4 pts per game over the year with the league’s best FG% at 48.6% thanks to their dominance in the paint where half of their points every week were coming.
The Hawks finished top of the league in FG%, Points per Possession, Effective Field Goal %, True Shooting %, Points in the Paint, 2nd Chance Points, Fast Break Points, Points off Turnovers and equal first in Bench Points. They were also top 5 in most defensive statistics despite having such an offence weighted game style.
South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
South East Melbourne have been a resurgent team this season. Starting off by going 0-5 and kicking their coach to the kerb the team with one of the highest number of player turnover from last season kicked into gear midway through the season to secure themselves a play-in spot against Perth.
They went on to lose that game 122-105 but then demonstrated resilience in their comeback victory over the Adelaide 36ers in the final play-in game to book their spot in the semi’s against Illawarra. The Phoenix were down 21 points to the 36ers in their elimination play-in game, scoring just 26 points in the first half.
Coach Josh King adjusted his lineups after the main break which allowed a strong offensive output while stopping the Adelaide onslaught. Matt Hurt, Nathan Sobey, Agnus Glover and Ben Ayre all contributed offensively to get their team over the line.
On the season SEM ranked 3rd in offence and 6th in defence, over their last 10 games though the Phoenix moved up to equal 2nd in scoring.
Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix start?
Tip-off between Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix is at 7:30 PM AEDT, Friday, February 28
What channel is Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on?
You can watch Illawarra Hawks vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.
Verdict
Expect the Hawks to come out firing early taking the 1st quarter and pushing the scoring taking them over their team total. Tyler Harvey has matched up well against SEM, take him to go over his points total.
Illawarra -1.5
1st Qtr Line
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Illawarra over 100.5
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T Harvey over 18.5
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