NBL25 Finals Tips

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Melbourne United vs Perth Wildcats NBL25 Finals Tips - Wildcats offence pinches crucial Game 1 victory

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Tue 25 Feb 2025 20:28

Jeremy Darke 25 Feb 2025

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Melbourne United vs Perth Wildcats expert predictions for Thursday’s NBL Finals matchup
Tip-off is at 7:30 PM AEDT at John Cain Arena
Bryce Cotton expected to play a key role, supported by strong frontcourt performance.
Perth's offensive depth may outshine Melbourne's defensive tactics.
Preview, stats, head-to-head, team news & more

Melbourne United vs Perth Wildcats NBL25 Tips

The Wildcats will break their four-game losing streak against Melbourne United with a victory at John Cain Arena on Thursday night to open the NBL Playoffs.

Melbourne United vs Perth Wildcats NBL25 Tips
Head to Head
Melbourne United Form & Team News
Perth Wildcats Form & Team News
Melbourne United vs Perth Wildcats Frequently Asked Questions

League MVP Bryce Cotton has scored 19 points total in two games against Melbourne this season, scoring just 5 points in the first match. Don’t expect United to be able to guard Cotton in the same way in this semifinal series with the Wildcats having so many more weapons that are carrying hot form into the NBL Finals.

Cotton will do enough to gain attention but it will be what happens in the paint with Keanu Pinder and Christian Doolittle that will change this game. Recent form has the forward pairing averaging 40+ points and 20 rebounds per game between them and they will attack the paint against United which will give Cotton the space he needs to perform.

The Wildcats defence is the shadow hanging over their championship hopes and getting past United in this first game of the series, however, they will tick over the scoreboard enough to secure a win on the back of their offence.

Bryce Cotton is 8-15 against Melbourne in the regular season and 3-1 in NBL Finals.
Perth rank second in NBL25 with an average of 100.6 PPG
Melbourne ranks 5th in the NBL with 40.8 opposition points in the paint.
Kristian Doolittle averages 9 RPG in his past 7 matches.

Head to Head

2024/25 Match Results

22/01/25: Perth 93 - 99 Melbourne

09/11/24: Melbourne 106 - 97 Perth

04/10/24: Perth 97 - 68 Melbourne

2023/24 Season Series

Melbourne United won 2-1

Offensive & Defensive Rankings

MEL Off	Rank	Stat	Rank	PER Def
95.6	4	PPG	9	96.9
43.3	2	RPG	3	39.9
46.1%	7	FG%	9	47.9%
35.0%	5	3P%	8	36.5%
11.6	6	TOV	1	12.6

MEL Def	Rank	Stat	Rank	PER Off
91.4	4	PPG	2	100.1
40.2	4	RPG	3	41.8
45.1%	3	FG%	5	46.3%
34.5%	4	3P%	2	37.2%
11.5	6	TOV	4	11.1

Melbourne United Form & Team News

Melbourne United will head into these finals flying under the radar with the other three teams in the semifinals playoffs having bigger storylines during NBL25. United are a danger, they finished second in the regular season and nobody is talking about them.

In my opinion, it is simply because they haven’t been dominant at either end of the court, they are ranked fourth with 95.6PPG and fifth with 91.4 OPPG. United are stronger on the defensive end than they are on the offensive end and sit really mid-range in most statistics.

Their strength on the defensive end is that they do not give up cheap points, ranked top of the NBL in opposition second chance points (11.4/G) and fast break points (8.8/G).

The issue with Melbourne in this series will be if they can score enough points to keep up with the Wildcats high-octane offence or can they dilute the scoring power of all of Perth’s weapons, especially, but not only, the league MVP Bryce Cotton.

Perth Wildcats Form & Team News

Perth finished the season red-hot, winning 8 of their final 10 matches and eventually did the dirty on the Phoenix in the Seeding Qualifier 122-105 after trailing by 5 points at the half.

The depth of talent on offence for the Wildcats is up there with the Minor Premiers the Hawks and is potential more dangerous on their night when everything is clicking. The return of Keanu Pinder’s top form has lifted the Cats to another level with the 29-year-old averaging 23.2 points and 10 rebounds in his past 5 games.

Pinder’s combination with Kristian Doolittle (20PPG + 9RPG in his last 7 games) gives them arguably the strongest frontcourt in the NBL Finals.

Then there is Bryce Cotton. The league MVP is averaging 34.6 points per game in his last 5 matches and obviously can make it or break it for the Wildcats. If Cotton is hot and the rest of the Wildcats get half-started, then they will put up too many points for Melbourne.

The question and it is a big one, is can Perth play enough defence to protect the points they throw on the board?

Melbourne United vs Perth Wildcats Frequently Asked Questions

What time does Melbourne United vs Perth Wildcats start?

Tip-off between Melbourne United vs Perth Wildcats is at 7:30 PM AEDT, Thursday, February 27

What channel is Melbourne United vs Perth Wildcats on?

You can watch Melbourne United vs Perth Wildcats on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.

Verdict

Melbourne United v Perth Wildcats

Perth Wildcats win as the away underdog, scoring over 96.5 points and Kristian Doolittle recording 8+ rebounds.

Perth Wildcats

Money Line

$2.50 - 2 Units

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Perth Over 96.5

Team Total

$1.92 - 2 Units

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Kristian Doolittle

8+ Rebounds

$1.75 - 2 Units

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