NBL25 Finals Tips

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Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United NBL25 Tips - Hawks double down to take series lead

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Fri 14 Mar 2025 15:23

Ryan Tucker 14 Mar 2025

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Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United expert predictions for Sunday’s Grand Final Series NBL matchup
Tip-off is at 5:30 PM AEDT at WIN Entertainment Centre
Illawarra Hawks aim to regain momentum at home against Melbourne United in the NBL Grand Final.
Hawks adjusted their strategy to focus on inside play and rebounding, reducing Melbourne's offensive chances.
Key players Will Hickey and Sam Froling are expected to shine, capitalizing on Melbourne's foul issues.

Ryan delivers his top picks for Game 3 of the NBL Championship series

Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United NBL25 Tips

The Hawks will regain ascendancy in the Grand Final series with a win at home in front of a raucous crowd this Sunday evening.

Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United NBL25 Tips
Head to Head
2024/25 Grand Final Series
2024/25 Regular Season Series
Finals Offensive & Defensive Rankings
Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
Melbourne United Form & Team News
Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United Frequently Asked Questions

Illawarra used their get out of jail free card on Wednesday night with Tyler Harvey shooting a fantastic shot over the head of Ian Clark to win the game on the road.

What we can take out of that game though is the adjustments made in the style of play from Illawarra that chose to bash it with the big men down low instead of hoisting from three despite being the 4th best 3pt shooting team in the NBL this season.

The plan worked with increased rebounding, increased second chance points, increased points in the paint all while decreasing the same stats for Melbourne and putting their big men into foul trouble.

These two coaches will once again scheme ahead of Game 3 but i have trouble seeing where Melbourne are able to find that extra gear. They shot an amazing 46% from 3pt range in Game 2 which will likely not be repeatable meaning their chances of scoring 100 pts on the road diminish.

Take the Hawks to win the 1st quarter and cover the short line with Will Hickey to surpass his points total with a cleaner shooting night together with Sam Froling going over his total for a third consecutive game.

Illawarra have lost only 1 of their last 12 first quarters and have not lost a 1st quarter to Melbourne this season.
Melbourne had 25 fouls in Game 2 compared to just 13 in Game 1.
Will Hickey scored 14pts in game 1 on 46% shooting, only 8pts in game 2 but on 28% shooting.
Sam Froling has scored 16pts and 23pts in this Series on top of an average of 16.6 pts against Melbourne in their 3 game regular season series.

Head to Head

2024/25 Grand Final Series

Mar 12th 25: Melbourne 100-102 Illawarra

Mar 8th 25: Illawarra 88-96 Melbourne

2024/25 Regular Season Series

Jan 18th 25: Illawarra 117-95 Melbourne

Dec 13th 24: Melbourne 93-106 Illawarra

Oct 24th 24: Illawarra 87-92 Melbourne

Finals Offensive & Defensive Rankings

ILL Off	Rank	Stat	Rank	MEL Def
102.2	2	PPG	4	98.2
45.8	2	RPG	3	43.4
46.2%	3	FG%	3	46.0%
37.0%	3	3P%	3	36.4%
8.8	1	TOV	6	8.8

ILL Def	Rank	Stat	Rank	MEL Off
97.4	3	PPG	3	100.6
41.2	3	RPG	3	40.6
46.6%	4	FG%	1	50.4%
35.9%	2	3P%	1	42.4%
12	3	TOV	2	10.6

Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News

The Hawks snatched a win on the road at John Cain Arena on Wednesday thanks to a Tyler Harvey three point shot over the head of Ian Clark off an inbound pass with only 5.7 seconds remaining in the game.

The game winning shot came after Harvey fouled Clark on the previous play with the United player hitting 3-3 from the charity stripe to put Melbourne ahead.

There was a distinct adjustment from Illawarra in Game 2 taking 8 fewer shots from 3pt range and dominating the rebounding 42-35 compared to Game 1 (54-39). Not only did the extra rebounding give the Hawks more points it restricted Melbourne from scoring on the extra possessions bringing their 2nd Chance Points from 22 pts in Game 1 to 9 pts in Game 2.

The Hawks bench had one of their lowest scoring games of the season, contributing just 25 points to the total compared to an average of 36 on the season and 46 in Game 1.

Melbourne United Form & Team News

Melbourne United could have been forgiven for thinking they were heading back to Game 3 in Illawarra 2-0 up. Twice. First the Ian Clark foul which gifted United the lead with Clark sinking three consecutive free throws to put them in front 100-99 with 14 seconds remaining in the game.

Then after Tyler Harvey hit a hail mary three over the head of Clark with 5.7 seconds remaining it all came down to one possession and Chris Goulding had the final shot go halfway down the basket before having it bounce back out and with that the victory slipping from their grasp.

Melbourne were not able to make the adjustments to the change in style that Illawarra came with as their big men once again encountered early foul trouble. United gave up 58 points in the paint to their opponent, 8 pts more than they did in Game 1.

Melbourne’s bench hit 57.8% from three in the game while the team went for a combined 46% in the game.

Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United Frequently Asked Questions

What time does Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United start?

Tip-off between Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United is at 5:30 PM AEDT, Sunday, March 16th

What channel is Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United on?

You can watch Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.

Verdict

Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United

Hawks -1.5

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