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Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United NBL25 Tips - Hawks to wrap up second premiership in front of home fans
In this intense NBL25 Championship Series, the Illawarra Hawks anticipate their first home win, potentially securing the title with a standout performance from Will Hickey. Despite prior setbacks and strong competition from Melbourne United, Illawarra's home court advantage and strategic dominance, particularly in rebounds, provide them with the edge needed for victory. Both teams face key player availability challenges, and nerves will certainly play a role as the series reaches a climactic Game 5 showdown.
- Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United expert predictions for Sunday’s Grand Final Series NBL matchup
- Tip-off is at 2:30 PM AEDT at WIN Entertainment Centre
- Illawarra Hawks aim for their first home win in Series, chasing a second-ever Championship.
- Key factors: home advantage, standout performance by Will Hickey, and strategic dominance on rebounds.
- Hawks -2.5 and Game Total Over - Top picks
Ryan is tipping the Hawks to take the championship!
Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United NBL25 Tips
Illawarra will take the first home win of this Grand Final series and secure only their second Championship Series in their history.
- Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United NBL25 Tips
- Head to Head
- Championship Series Results
- 2024/25 Regular Season Series
- Finals Offensive & Defensive Rankings
- Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
- Melbourne United Form & Team News
- Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United Frequently Asked Questions
In Game 4 the Hawks once again went in with a game plan to dominate the boards and work the interior which was so successful for them in Game 2. Their plan worked with Marcus Lee getting into foul trouble and lanes opening up for the likes of Will Hickey and Lachie Olbrich.
Melbourne looked nervous as they tried to protect a 2nd quarter lead and edged back in front early in the 4th before Illawarra took control of the game and put it out of reach.
The Hawks have been dominant in first quarters this season but it has been the 3rd quarters which have decided games in 3 of the 4 games this Championship Series. Illawarra have looked stagnant in close finishes while Melbourne’s experience has allowed them to set the pace and direct the flow.
My expectation is that Game 5 will have similar qualities to the previous 4 games with Illawarra getting out to a lead and Melbourne evening things up through the middle portion. Nerves will be a big problem for the players in this one with everything on the line. The Hawks will want to have a sizable lead into the 4th to help stave off any comeback efforts from United whilst you can guarantee Delly and Goulding will not go down without a fight.
I am backing the Hawks on pure emotion. They have been the best team all season long and have been able to climb out of the hole when they have looked dead and buried. The home court advantage will help deliver them the NBL25 title with Will Hickey the star of the show.
- Illawarra won 10 of 14 games at home this season with an average win margin of 21 pts. No team in this series has won a home game.
- The Hawks shot just 37% from the field in Game 4 yet won by 9 pts.
- Chris Goulding was United’s best scorer this season averaging 18.4 per game in the regular season, he has not scored more than 17pts in this series.
- Will Hickey had 22 as a starter in Game 4 and has averaged 11.6 in finals games off the bench this season.
Head to Head
Championship Series Results
Game 4: Melbourne United 71-80 Illawarra Hawks
Game 3: Illawarra Hawks 77-83 Melbourne United
Game 2: Melbourne United 100-102 Illawarra Hawks
Game 1: Illawarra Hawks 88-96 Melbourne United
2024/25 Regular Season Series
Illawarra won 2-1
Finals Offensive & Defensive Rankings
| ILL Off | Rank | Stat | Rank | MEL Def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95.4 | 3 | PPG | 3 | 92.6 |
| 46.6 | 2 | RPG | 5 | 44.9 |
| 44.6% | 4 | FG% | 2 | 44.5% |
| 34.6% | 3 | 3P% | 2 | 33.9% |
| 8.9 | 1 | TOV | 6 | 8.9 |
| ILL Def | Rank | Stat | Rank | MEL Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91.6 | 2 | PPG | 4 | 93.9 |
| 41.4 | 3 | RPG | 3 | 41 |
| 44.8% | 3 | FG% | 1 | 47.5% |
| 34.4% | 3 | 3P% | 2 | 39.5% |
| 10.6 | 4 | TOV | 2 | 9.6 |
Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
The Hawks wrestled another win at John Cain Arena in Game 4 of the Championship Series on Wednesday.
Despite losing one of their top scorers in Trey Kell prior to the game and Sam Froling with an achilles injury during the game, the underdogs were able to control the majority of the match with Melbourne only leading at most by 5 points toward the end of the 2nd quarter.
Illawarra once again dominated the boards, taking 55 rebounds to Melbourne’s 43. Will Hickey and Darius Days were both promoted to the starting lineup with Hickey topscoring with 22 points aswell as taking 6 boards and dishing out 8 assists.
Days hit only 3-12 from the field but the single three he nailed was critical in the momentum swing late in the game for Illawarra. Lachie Olbrich was brilliant off the bench in his 26 minutes, scoring 13 pts on 5-11 shooting and taking 6 boards as well as blocking 2 shots.
Trey Kell will likely be available for game 5, Sam Froling will not.
Melbourne United Form & Team News
United fans can be forgiven for being nervous. They once again passed up the opportunity to secure a Championship Series on their home court with the nerves getting to the players.
Finals MVP candidate Matthew Dellavedova top scored with 17 together with Chris Goulding who shot just 31% from the field. Delly took 7 boards, had 6 assists and a steal in the contest but gave up the ball 4 times.
Melbourne’s success earlier in the series was when they dominated the paint and the boards forcing Illawarra to try and beat them with shooting. United couldn’t match it down low with Marcus Lee getting into foul trouble and no-one able to successfully stop Will Hickey.
Shea Ili is expected to be available for game 5 after missing games 3 & 4 with concussion.
Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United start?
Tip-off between Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United is at 2:30 PM AEDT, Sunday, March 23rd
What channel is Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United on?
You can watch Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.
Verdict
I am backing the Hawks on pure emotion. They have been the best team all season long and have been able to climb out of the hole when they have looked dead and buried. The home court advantage will help deliver them the NBL25 title with Will Hickey the star of the show.
Illawarra -2.5
Line
$1.90 - 2 Units
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Over 178.5
Game Total
$1.90 - 1 Unit
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W Hickey 15+
Player Points
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W Hickey over 5.5
Rebounds
$1.95 - 1 Unit
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