NBL25 Finals Tips

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Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United NBL Grand Final Series Tips - Game 1 to set the tone of the series

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Fri 07 Mar 2025 09:31

Ryan Tucker 07 Mar 2025

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Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United expert predictions for Saturday’s NBL Grand Final Series - Game 1 matchup
Tip-off is at 8:00 PM AEDT at WIN Entertainment Centre
Illawarra Hawks predicted to win Game 1, leveraging their fast-paced offense.
Hawks lead the league in scoring; key player Sam Froling expected to perform strongly.
Melbourne United aims to counter with a slower pace but faces challenges in first quarters against Illawarra.

Ahead of the Game - Sports Chat, Ryan and Josh talk about the upcoming NBL Grand Final series.

Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United NBL Grand Final Tips

Illawarra will come bursting out of the gates in the first quarter of Game 1 of the NBL25 Grand Final Series and will go on to take the win putting them in prime position.

Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United NBL Grand Final Tips
Head to Head
2024/25 Match Results
2023/24 Season Series
Regular Season Offensive & Defensive Rankings
Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
Melbourne United Form & Team News
Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United Frequently Asked Questions

Melbourne will be ultra-wary of Illawarra’s first quarter heroics this season, but that does not mean they will be able to stop them. United allowed 37 pts to Perth in Q1 of their game 3 sudden death final and have been outscored in 6 of their last 9 first quarters.

The Hawks have built their season on scoring volume and fast pace. They average the most points of any team at 101.4 per game while taking the most shots at 77.2 per game. The success has come from the team dynamic with 3 of their players in the top 20 for scoring. 6th man Will Hickey also leads the league in plus/minus with a whopping +236 putting him ahead of players like Xavier Cooks, Shea Ili and Dylan Windler.

Defensively these two teams are on paper evenly matched. Melbourne were able to throw a spanner in the works of Illawarra’s offence earlier in the season but could not re-create the effect in the two most recent matchups. The Hawks ranked 3rd in opposition points in the regular season and held opponents to the 5th lowest average field goal attempts despite their own pace being so high.

My expectation in this game is that Illawarra will look to score early and often to build a buffer against Melbourne while United will try to slow the pace and keep Illawarra out of step.

The Hawks will win, covering the line as they have done so often this season. The Game Total will stay under with the middle two quarters expected to be choppy. Look for Sam Froling to get his points under the rim with the rest of the team creating space on the perimeter.

Illawarra won all 1st quarters in their matchups with United this season and have won 8 of their last 10 1st quarters.
Game 1 of the last 3 Grand Final series have gone Over the total but under the number set in this game.
Melbourne allowed an average of 53 points in the paint to Illawarra this season, 13 points more than their average of 40.8 against the rest of the league.
Sam Froling averaged 16.6 pts per game in his three matchups against Melbourne this season.

Head to Head

2024/25 Match Results

Jan 18th 25: Illawarra 117-95 Melbourne

Dec 13th 24: Melbourne 93-106 Illawarra

Oct 24th 24: Illawarra 87-92 Melbourne

2023/24 Season Series

Melbourne United won 3-0

Regular Season Offensive & Defensive Rankings

ILL Off	Rank	Stat	Rank	MEL Def
101.4	1	PPG	4	91.4
44.4	1	RPG	4	40.2
48.6%	1	FG%	3	45.1%
35.3%	4	3P%	4	34.5%
9.6	1	TOV	6	11.5

ILL Def	Rank	Stat	Rank	MEL Off
91.2	3	PPG	4	95.6
40.3	5	RPG	2	43.3
44.2%	2	FG%	7	46.1%
33.9%	3	3P%	5	35.0%
12	5	TOV	6	11.6

Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News

The Hawks booked a spot in their first Grand Final series since the 2016-2017 season with a dominant win over South East Melbourne Phoenix in Game 3 of the Semi-Finals at the Sandpit.

The 126-96 victory broke numerous records including being their biggest ever finals win, highest ever post-season score and highest scoring first half of the season. Veteran Todd Blanchfield also knocked down a career best 8 three point shots in the game in which they at one stage led with 43 points.

The team made amends for their poor shooting performance in Game 2 with Trey Kell III scoring 30 pts on 56% shooting with the team matching his percentage from the field. From beyond the arc the Hawks went 19-39 taking 11 more shots from deep than their season average.

Defensively Illawarra were able to keep their opponents quiet on the scoring front. Phoenix go to man Matt Hurt had only 4 points on 6 shot attempts compared to his 30 points on 19 shots in Game 2.

The Hawks were ambushed at home in their first meeting with Melbourne United in NBL25 but regathered to win the other two games in the season series, one on the road and the last at home.

Melbourne United Form & Team News

Melbourne United sealed the deal with the smallest of margins against Perth earlier in the week to be the first team in the NBL25 Grand Final Series.

Both Game 2 and Game 3 came down to the wire but it was United that had the balls of steel to see it through with a set play getting Chris Goulding to the line in the final seconds to break the deadlock and take victory.

Goulding hit a combined 22-43 from deep in the series, almost single-handedly breaking the backs and the minds of the Wildcats with clutch shots right when Melbourne needed them. The Wildcats were unable to effectively defend CG43 as he ran around the court, off screens to get free and take his shots.

Despite the success of Goulding, United ranked 7th on the season in FG% and 5th in 3pt%. Defensively they ranked 4th keeping teams to 91.4 pts per game with the 3rd best opposition FG% and the 6th most Points in the Paint.

Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United Frequently Asked Questions

What time does Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United start?

Tip-off between Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United is at 8:00 PM AEDT, Saturday March 8th

What channel is Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United on?

You can watch Illawarra Hawks vs Melbourne United on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.

Verdict

Illawarra Hawks v Melbourne United

Hawks -1.5

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