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South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks NBL25 Tips - Hawks book their place in the Championship Series
The Illawarra Hawks will conclude their series against the South East Melbourne Phoenix with a decisive 2-0 victory, focusing on strong defense to stay under the 197.5 total points threshold. Game 1 saw the Hawks exploit their depth advantage to surpass the Phoenix by 7 points, mainly due to a strong third quarter performance. Despite the Phoenix's defensive strengths at home, the Hawks are expected to manage their perimeter game better at John Cain. Key player Sam Froling is anticipated to excel offensively, potentially scoring over 13.5 points.
- South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks expert predictions for Sunday’s Semi-Final NBL matchup
- Tip-off is at 2:30 PM AEDT at John Cain Arena
- Strong third quarter performance central to Game 1 victory.
- Sam Froling expected to be crucial in the offensive lineup, likely scoring over 13.5 points.
Jez breaks down the first game of the series between the Hawks vs Phoenix and gives you his tips for Game 2.
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks NBL25 Tips
The Illawarra Hawks will wrap up the series 2-0, getting a grinding victory over the Phoenix that will stay under the total of 197.5 points.
- South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks NBL25 Tips
- Head to Head
- South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
- Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
- South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks Frequently Asked Questions
The Hawks dominated the third quarter in Game 1 of the series at WIN Entertainment Centre, heading to enemy territory after getting up 101 - 94 after outsourcing the Phoenix by 20 after the halftime break.
The depth of the Hawks was the difference and it will be once again as they take on the Phoenix who are a much better defensive team at home. The Hawks won the match on the perimeter in game 1, however, they will be forced to work harder down low at John Cain, with South East Melbourne spacing better on their home court.
Expect a big match from Sam Frolinng, who did his best work defensively in the opening match of the series. Froling and Olbrich will likely be utilised more on offence in this match, working hard in the paint to get theri buckets with the Hawks guards marked tighter in Game 2.
- South East Melbourne have lost 9 of 14 games when starting as a 4.5-point or less underdog in NBL25.
- South East Melbourne have conceded over 100 points at home just twice this season.
- Illawarra’s bench averaged 36PPG, ranked 1st in the NBL25 season.
- Sam Froling has scored over 13.5 points in 5 of his past 8 games.
Head to Head
2024/25 NBL Finals Series
28/02/25: Illawarra 101 - 94 South East Melbourne
2024/25 Match Results
31/12/25: - Illawarra 105 - 110 South east Melbourne
30/11/24: South East Melbourne 103 - 100 Illawarra
26/10/24: South East Melbourne 88 - 82 Illawarra
Offensive & Defensive Rankings (NBL25)
| SEM Off | Rank | Stat | Rank | ILL Def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 96.1 | 3 | PPG | 3 | 91.2 |
| 41.6 | 5 | RPG | 5 | 40.3 |
| 46.6% | 4 | FG% | 2 | 44.2% |
| 33.9% | 9 | 3P% | 3 | 33.9% |
| 10.6 | 3 | TOV | 5 | 12 |
| SEM Def | Rank | Stat | Rank | ILL Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 91.6 | 6 | PPG | 1 | 101.4 |
| 41.2 | 6 | RPG | 1 | 44.4 |
| 45.9% | 5 | FG% | 1 | 48.6% |
| 35.5% | 5 | 3P% | 4 | 35.3% |
| 12.3 | 3 | TOV | 1 | 9.6 |
South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
Just as they did against Perth in the Seeding Qualifier, South East Melbourne led heading into the halftime break in Game 1 of this series against Illawarra and failed to convert.
The Phoenix outscored the Hawks 34 - 23 in the second quarter, but came out of the rooms flat in the third and scored just 12 points to Illawarra’s 32 and the game was done from there. In both Play-In matches the Phoenix failed to play for all four quarters and are not going to get past the number one team in the NBL if they disappear for any period of time against Illawarra.
The return of Derrick Walton Jr. was a success with the import scoring 15 points along with 11 rebounds in his first game in six weeks.
It wasn’t all doom and gloom for the Phoenix. They drove to the net well, outsourcing the Hawks 48-40 in the paint, however they were hurt heavily from three. Perimeter shooting has been an issue for the Phoenix all season, ranked ninth in the league with a 33.9 3P% and shot 34.6% from outside against the Hawks in game one, sinking just 9 from 26.
Illawarra Hawks Form & Team News
Game 1 ended with the right result for the Hawks, but I can not imagine that Justin Tatum would be completely pleased, especially being outscored by 11 points in the second quarter by giving up 34 points.
The response in the third was positive, however, a poor second quarter put them in a vulnerable position heading into the second half.
The Hawks bigs were fairly quiet for their standard, with Froling and Olbrich combining for just 17 points, however, Todd Blanchfield was firing from the bench with 16 points.
Illawarra found the space and looks they needed from the arc, sinking 14 threes from 33 attempts, which was the dagger in the side of the Phoenix. Tyler Harvery (24 Pts + 4 Reb) and Trey Kell III (24 Pts + 10 Reb) grabbed the game by the horns, as expected. While the bench of Illawarra was the difference once again, outsourcing the Phoenix subs 36 - 23.
South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks Frequently Asked Questions
What time does South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks start?
Tip-off between South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks is at 2:30 PM AEDT, Sunday, March 02
What channel is South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks on?
You can watch South East Melbourne Phoenix vs Illawarra Hawks on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.
Verdict
A tighter defensive performance will see this match stay under 198.5 points as the Hawks cover the short 1.5-point line as the away favourite.
Sam Froling will see more ball on offence and will score over 13.5 points.
Sam Froling will see more ball on offence and will score over 13.5 points.
Illawarra -1.5
Handicap/Line
$1.92 - 3 Units
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Under 198.5
Game Total
$1.91 - 2 Units
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Sam Froling Over 13.5
Player Points
$1.87 - 2 Units
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