Northland vs Southland Tips - Southland value to pull off an upset in NPC Rugby

Ralph Staniforth

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Last updated: Thu 07 Aug 2025 10:50

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Ralph Staniforth 07 Aug 2025

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Southland's recent form shows improvement despite a recent loss to Otago
Northland finished second from bottom in the 2024 NPC with only two wins last season
Southland holds an advantage historically against Northland and leads with a +7.5 point handicap

Expired

Southland can upset the odds in NPC against Northland (Getty Images)

Northland vs Southland Tips

Southland have enjoyed facing Northland in recent seasons and I think they are value with a +7.5 start on the line. It is also worth taking them to cause an upset.

Northland vs Southland Tips
Head to Head
Northland Form
Southland Form

Northland lost their last match by 20 points.
Southland are unbeaten in their last 2 matches against Northland.
Southland lost their last match by 9 points.

Head to Head

Southland defeated Northland last season and drew in 2023.

Northland Form

Northland finished second from bottom in 2024 NPC, winning just two of their 10 matches. They ended on 15 points, two shy of their opponents this weekend, Southland.

This season began with another defeat last weekend as Northland went down 23-3 to Taranaki away from home. After conceding an early try, Northland struck back through a Reihana penalty in the 10th minute.

However, they conceded another try and penalty before the break and went into the sheds at 13-3 down. The second half saw Taranaki pull further away with little threat from Northland.

Southland Form

Southland could only manage a 12th place finish in 2024 but from a performance perspective, they were far better than 2023. They will be looking to kick on from their three wins in 10 games last season.

It was not the best start last weekend though as Southland lost 24-15 at home to Otago, a team they beat last season. And early try put Southland in the lead but Otago hit back with a converted try and a penalty by the 24th minute.

By half time, Otago had taken full control of the game two more converted tries to lead 24-8 at the break. Southland scored a try 15 minutes into the second half to make it 24-15 but couldn’t make any more inroads in the final 25 minutes.