Tasmania JackJumpers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL26 Round 14 Tips - Sobey From Deep Offering Value

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: Sun 28 Dec 2025 14:43

Ryan Tucker 28 Dec 2025

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Tasmania JackJumpers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix expert predictions for Monday’s Round 14 NBL matchup
Tip-off is at 7:30 PM AEDT at MyState Bank Arena
Tasmania JackJumpers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix in NBL25 Round 14.
SEM favored due to top scoring record and strong road success.
Experts predict Phoenix's win; watch Nathan Sobey's three-pointers.

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Tasmania JackJumpers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL26 Round 14 Tips

Tasmania JackJumpers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Round 14 Expert Tips

Tasmania have a quick turnaround at home welcoming the 2nd placed Phoenix on Monday night with the visitors tipped to win as the slight favourite

Tasmania JackJumpers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Round 14 Expert Tips
Head to Head
Last 5 Match Results
Offensive & Defensive Rankings
Tasmania JackJumpers Form & Team News
South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
Tasmania JackJumpers vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions

These teams played back on December 10th with Tasmania running out winners 89-81 despite SEM scoring 36 points in the first quarter. The Phoenix shot poorly from the 3pt line that night, hitting at a 23.7% rate.

Tassie shot even worse from beyond the arc, hitting just 4 of 21 shots from deep for a 19% rate. But coupled with the slower pace and better production inside the paint, they were able to hold out for the win.

The JackJumpers have struggled at home this season, winning just 2 of 10 games played at My State Bank Arena and Silverdome. SEM will look to compound that pain as they try to improve on their 6-3 road record.

South East Melbourne are the best scoring team in the league as well as the best team shooting from beyond the arc. The likelihood of them having another poor shooting night against the JackJumpers is slim.

Take the Phoenix with the 1.5 pt headstart with the Game Total to go Over. Take Nathan Sobey to have 4+ three pointers.

SEM are the top scoring team in the league and the 5th ranked defence.
Last time these teams met the total was 170 and both teams shot extremely poorly from 3pt range. Prior to that game, three straight had gone Over the total.
Nathan Sobey has had 8 three point attempts in each of the two games vs Tasmania this season.
Nathan Sobey ranks 2nd amongst qualified players for three-pointers made per game (3.1) this season.

Head to Head

Last 5 Match Results

Date	Home Team	Score	Line	Total Points
10/12/2025	SEM	TAS 89-81	TAS +5.5	U 186.0
06/11/2025	TAS	SEM 103-102	TAS +2.5	O 177.0
25/01/2025	SEM	SEM 116-80	SEM -8.5	O 185.5
05/01/2025	TAS	SEM 105-91	SEM +3.0	O 184.5
01/11/2024	TAS	SEM 79-77	SEM +5.0	U 164.5

Offensive & Defensive Rankings

TAS Off	Rank	Stat	Rank	SEM Def
85.9	9	PPG	5	87.9
42	7	RPG	10	44.1
45.0%	5	FG%	7	45.5%
32.2%	5	3P%	7	33.0%
11.2	4	TOV	1	18.1

TAS Def	Rank	Stat	Rank	SEM Off
85.9	3	PPG	1	96.4
40	1	RPG	8	41.5
44.2%	5	FG%	10	42.5%
33.3%	8	3P%	2	34.9%
10.7	7	TOV	3	10.4

Tasmania JackJumpers Form & Team News

Tasmania fumbled big time in their matchup against New Zealand on Boxing Day. Going into the first quarter break down by 7 the JackJumpers wrestled back momentum on their home court to lead by 4 going into the final frame.

With seconds remaining on the clock, the home team were given multiple lifelines by their opponent but costly turnovers and poor decision making meant the game went to overtime where they once again were unable to capitalise on good fortune to lock away the game, ultimately going down 81-80. It was their 2nd straight loss at home, taking their record to 2-8 on the season as the home team.

Tasmania play at the slowest pace of any team in the league and as a product are the 9th ranked scoring team in the NBL. They are also the number 1 scoring defence thanks to them forcing their opposition into grinding conditions.

South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News

The Phoenix went 2 from 2 in Round 13 and are now on a 3 game win streak heading into this matchup. Their most recent loss was on December 10 against the JackJumpers.

The 107-78 win over Brisbane last Saturday has lifted the team up into 2nd on the ladder while also solidifying their position as the number 1 ranked scoring team in the league with an average of 96.4 pts per game over the season.

Interestingly, SEM have the worst FG% in the NBL but have the best 3pt%. They also have the 3rd highest number of points per possession. Hunter Maldonado has been released from the club with import Ian Clark signing on for the remainder of the season.