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Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL26 Round 10 Tips - Recency Bias to Create Value
South East Melbourne Phoenix is expected to secure a victory against Brisbane Bullets in the NBL25 Round 10 encounter. The Phoenix boasts the highest scoring average in the league despite lower field goal percentages, thanks to their exceptional 3-point shooting. With Brisbane struggling due to injuries to key players, and a lackluster 1-5 home record, the odds favor the Phoenix covering the spread of -6.5 points. Nathan Sobey is also expected to shine against his former team, highlighting his impressive scoring streak.
- Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 10 NBL matchup
- Tip-off is at 7:30 PM AEDT at Brisbane Entertainment Centre
- South East Melbourne Phoenix is favored to win against Brisbane.
- Phoenix leads the NBL in scoring with top 3-point accuracy.
- Brisbane struggles due to key injuries; Sobey a player to watch for SEM.
Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL26 Round 10 Tips
Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Round 10 Expert Tips
South East Melbourne will win and cover the short line on the road in Brisbane on Thursday night thanks to their elite scoring power.
- Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Round 10 Expert Tips
- Head to Head
- Last 5 Match Results
- Offensive & Defensive Rankings
- Brisbane Bullets Form & Team News
- South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
- Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions
The Bullets surprised everyone last weekend by keeping in touch with Melbourne United, going down by just 6 points 98-93. But that level of play without genuine star talent will be hard to keep delivering week in, week out, especially against the scoring power of the South East Melbourne Phoenix.
SE Melbourne are the best scoring team in the league, averaging 97.4 pts per game despite having the 2nd worst FG%. It is their accuracy from distance, 37.7% which is keeping the scoring ticking over with teams unable to defend the spacing.
Brisbane will need to rely on some old legs to carry their attack and defence. Mitch Norton at 32 years old is a capable scorer and Javon Freeman-Liberty has been re-signed after leaving early in the season. But the hole Casey Prather leaves is immeasurable.
South East Melbourne have weapons all over the court and the recency bias of Brisbane being ok without Prather is our friend. Brisbane are just 1-5 at home this season while SEM are 8-0 as the favourite.
Take the Phoenix -6.5 but the Game Total to go Under due to Brisbane’s lack of scoring power. Nathan Sobey has been a menace against his old team scoring 25+ in 3 straight head to heads. Take him over his total.
- Brisbane are 5th in scoring and their top scorer Casey Prather will now miss the rest of the season due to injury.
- South East Melbourne are the number 1 ranked scoring team in the NBL with the number 1 ranked 3pt percentage.
- Nathan Sobey is averaging 21.3 pts per game this season, the most of his career.
- Sobey has scored 25+ pts in 3 straight games against Brisbane.
Head to Head
Last 5 Match Results
| Date | Home Team | Score | Line | Total Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/10/2025 | BRI | SEM 109-86 | SEM -4.0 | O 186.5 |
| 11/01/2025 | SEM | SEM 105-86 | SEM -8.0 | U 197.5 |
| 12/12/2024 | BRI | BRI 116-108 | BRI -2.0 | O 187.5 |
| 12/10/2024 | SEM | BRI 87-85 | BRI +5.0 | U 183.0 |
| 30/12/2023 | BRI | BRI 95-83 | BRI -1.5 | U 181.0 |
Offensive & Defensive Rankings
| BRI Off | Rank | Stat | Rank | SEM Def |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 89.6 | 5 | PPG | 7 | 89 |
| 38.6 | 10 | RPG | 9 | 43 |
| 47.6% | 1 | FG% | 8 | 45.7% |
| 31.0% | 8 | 3P% | 9 | 36.4% |
| 13.4 | 9 | TOV | 1 | 18.8 |
| BRI Def | Rank | Stat | Rank | SEM Off |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 95.6 | 8 | PPG | 1 | 97.4 |
| 41.9 | 4 | RPG | 6 | 42.1 |
| 46.8% | 10 | FG% | 9 | 42.5% |
| 31.9% | 4 | 3P% | 1 | 37.7% |
| 11.7 | 5 | TOV | 3 | 11 |
Brisbane Bullets Form & Team News
Brisbane surprised the league by only losing to Melbourne by 6 points in their most recent matchup 99-93. After releasing Jaylen Adams and their most influential player Casey Prather being sidelined with injury, the team was given no chance to stay within cooee of the league leading United.
But the old boys stepped up. Mitch Norton led the scoring with 19 pts while Lamar Patterson had 18 off the bench. Tyrell Harrison continued his career defining season putting up 16, 11 and 3 with 1 block to help his team along.
Despite the gallant effort, they still lost making it 0-2 from their Round 9 games. The Bullets sit 8th on the ladder with a 5-9 record.
South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News
South East Melbourne busted up the Cairns Taipans in their only round 9 fixture last weekend. The 101-90 victory got them back in the winners circle after losing in the Throwdown the weekend prior to United.
That loss broke a 6 game win streak for the Phoenix which had propelled them to 2nd on the ladder prior to last weekend. With Adelaide having an extra game played and another W they have taken over 2nd spot but SE Melbourne have the better points percentage.
It was Angus Glover off the bench that carried the scoring for the Phoenix against Cairns, he put up 24 pts in 26 minutes of play while the starters were able to play less minutes because of the blowout.
Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix start?
Tip-off between Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix is at 7:30 PM AEDT, Thursday, November 20
What channel is Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on?
You can watch Brisbane Bullets vs South East Melbourne Phoenix on ESPN via Kayo and Foxtel.
Verdict
Take the Phoenix -6.5 but the Game Total to go Under due to Brisbane’s lack of scoring power. Nathan Sobey has been a menace against his old team scoring 25+ in 3 straight head to heads. Take him over his tota
SEM -6.5
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