NBL25 Finals Tips

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Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Tips - All class from Cotton in Wildcats win

Jeremy Darke

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Last updated: Mon 10 Feb 2025 11:01

Jeremy Darke 10 Feb 2025

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Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix expert predictions for Tuesday’sSeeding Qualifier NBL matchup
Tip-off is at 9:30 PM AEDT at Perth HPC
Defensive struggles persist for both teams, promising a thrilling offensive display that goes over the game total of 201.5
Preview, stats, head-to-head, team news & more

Jez's predictions for the 2025 Seeding Qualifier.

Perth Wildcats vs South East Melbourne Phoenix NBL25 Tips

Despite this match not being played at RAC Arena, one thing is certain in this match and that is that there will not be a lot of defence with the game total expected to go bust.

Perth have the home court or more importantly the Phoenix are not home, which will see the Wildcats get up and book a semifinal series with Melbourne United.

Perth’s defence has been under fire all season long as they rank ninth in the league in points against. However, if you have a guy by the name of Bryce Cotton, how much defence do you need to play?

Cotton has had another MVP season and he will be the highlight in the Seeding Qualifier once again with South East Melbourne not having anyone on their roster that can shut him down, especially considering that the Phoenix have had majors defending on the road this season.

Cotton has scored 29 Pts + 33 Pts in his two matches against the Phoenix and has not loss to them this season. History will repeat itself and the Wildcats will get the win in an entertaining and high scoring contest with the little master dropping 30 points.

Perth have won 5 of the past 6 matches against South East Melbourne.
Perth are 14-6 as the favourite this season.
South East Melbourne averaged 101.2 opposition points per game in their past 5 away games.
Perth Wildcats have conceded an average of 106 points per game in their past 5 home matches.

Head to Head

2024/25 Match Results

31/01/24: Perth 100 - 99 South East Melbourne

15/11/24: Perth 97 - 84 South East Melbourne

03/11/24 South East Melbourne 100 - 76 Perth

Offensive & Defensive Rankings

PER Off	Rank	Stat	Rank	SEM Def
100.1	2	PPG	6	91.6
41.8	3	RPG	6	41.2
46.3%	5	FG%	5	45.9%
37.2%	2	3P%	5	35.5%
11.1	4	TOV	3	12.3

PER Def	Rank	Stat	Rank	SEM Off
96.9	9	PPG	3	96.1
39.9	3	RPG	5	41.6
47.9%	9	FG%	4	46.6%
36.5%	8	3P%	9	33.9%
12.6	1	TOV	3	10.6

Perth Wildcats Form & Team News

Perth are looking like having a strong push for the NBL25 Championship after finishing third on the ladder on the back of three consecutive wins to close out the season. Wins over three postseason teams in Sydney, Adelaide and also their Seeding Qualifier opponent South East Melbourne has them heading into the postseason on a wave of momentum.

There is no player hotter in the NBL than the suspected MVP of the league, Bryce Cotton, who dropped 49 points along with 7 assists in the final match of the season. Cotton has averaged 36.5 points in his past 4 matches to close out the regular season and will obviously be a key factor in deciding the Wildcat’s fate in the NBL Finals.

The concern for Perth, just as it has been all season, is their defence. The Wildcats leak points, 96.9 per game to be exact, which makes them the second-worst defensive team in the NBL.

South East Melbourne Phoenix Form & Team News

South East Melbourne head into the NBL25 postseason with a mixed bag of form losing 3 of their past 5 matches and have had some real trouble defending away from home.

Even as the ‘away’ team at John Cain Arena in the final round of NBL25, the Phoenix struggled to turn away Melbourne United in their 103-93 loss. It was the sixth match in 7 away games that they have allowed their opponents to score more than 100 points.

Despite their defensive woes, everything is in comparison and the Phoenix offence has matched the duress their defence has put them under by scoring 100+ points in 13 of their past 15 games and having an average of 104 points per game.

Matt Hurt and Nathan Sobey have been the key men for the Phoenix this season and you can also include Joe Wieskamp in the final third of the season since Derrick Walton Jr. went down.

Verdict

Perth Wildcats v SE Melbourne Phoenix

Perth will get the win at home with Bryce Cotton dropping 30+ points and the game total hitting the over.

Perth Wildcats

Money Line

$1.59 - 3 Units

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Over 201.5

Game Total

$1.90 - 2 Units

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Bryce Cotton

30+ Player Points

$1.65 - 3 Units

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