Iga Swiatek vs Madison Keys Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Keys can push Swiatek in Madrid quarter-finals

Swiatek will be hoping that a return to clay will spark a change of fortunes - sensationally, the Pole hasn't been past the semi-finals of any tournament since winning Roland Garros in 2024. Swiatek is on a nine-match winning streak in Madrid and owns a 16-2 record at the tournament overall, but she's down on confidence in big matches against top players.

Keys remains the underdog with the bookies in this encounter, but I think the American can make this competitive and why not have a small stake on her to prevail outright. Keys stunned Swiatek on her way to the Australian Open title earlier this season and as mentioned, the World No. 2 has struggled when making it to this stage of tournaments over the last 11 months. Swiatek has already dropped sets to Alexandra Eala and Diana Shnaider so far in Madrid, so Keys should have her chances.

Swiatek leads 4-2, but Keys saved a match point in a thrilling three-set victory in the Australian Open semi-finals to launch 2025. Swiatek defeated Keys in straight sets in the Madrid semi-finals last year.

Swiatek comes into this contest with a 25-7 record on the season, failing to make it to a final since triumphing at Roland Garros almost 12 months ago.

Consistency hasn't been an issue - Swiatek has made at least the quarter-finals of every tournament she's entered in 2025, but reaching the title match has become a very apparent issue, perhaps more mentally than physically.

Launching her clay season in Stuttgart, Swiatek suffered another blow, running into her nemesis Jelena Ostapenko, who beat her for the sixth time and went on to win the title.

Entering Madrid as the defending champion, Swiatek has navigated a tough draw - she overcame her Miami conquerer Alexandra Eala in three sets to open her campaign before getting the better of Linda Noskova in the second round. Swiatek proceeded to race through the first set 6-0 against Diana Shnaider before engaging in a huge battle, saving 11 of 13 break points as she ultimately prevailed 6-4 in the decider.

Keys heads into this showdown with a 23-4 record on the season, obviously highlighted by her stunning run to a maiden Grand Slam title at the Australian Open, where she survived five three-set matches - including beating Swiatek and World No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka back-to-back in the semis and final.

The American took a well-deserved break after that triumph, returning at Indian Wells, where she advanced to the semi-finals before being thwarted by Sabalenka.

Keys was also a victim of Eala's incredible Miami run, while the 30-year-old also lost early in Charleston to Anna Kalinskaya.

After making the semi-finals of Madrid in 2024, Keys is one match away from equaling that result - she hasn't dropped a set on her way to the quarter-finals, defeating Lucia Bronzetti, Kalinskaya and taking out Donna Vekic 6-3 6-2 in the R16.