Aryna Sabalenka vs Peyton Stearns Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Stearns can cover vs top seed in Madrid

Sabalenka has been all or nothing in Madrid over her past six appearances at the tournament - she won the title in 2021 and 2023, finished runner-up in 2024 and was bundled out in her opening match in the remaining years. Having avoided an opening defeat this tournament, history suggests Sabalenka is on course for the final - but she could have a tricky assignment on her hands in the R16.

Stearns had failed to win more than two matches in a row since August 2024 before this week, but the American has recaptured her best tennis and is looking dangerous in the Spanish capital. Stearns won't be intimidated by Sabalenka either - she held four match points in their only previous meeting at Indian Wells last year and knows she has the game to cause the upset. A win for Stearns would still be a massive shock, but I'm backing the American to cover a +5.5 games line if she can maintain the level from her previous matches this week.

As mentioned, Sabalenka leads 1-0, but that win was a mighty battle, with the World No. 1 saving four match points before prevailing 6-7 6-2 7-6 at Indian Wells in 2024.

Sabalenka comes into this clash with a 27-5 record on the season and chasing her second WTA 1000 title of the year this week in Madrid.

After kicking off the season with a title in Brisbane, Sabalenka fell just short in her bid for a third straight Australian Open crown, falling to Madison Keys in the final.

The World No. 1 took a while to get over the heartbreak of that defeat, but Sabalenka bounced back with a dominant run to the Miami silverware, securing the title without dropping a single set.

However, Sabalenka suffered more final disappointment to launch her clay swing in Stuttgart, finishing runner-up to Jelena Ostapenko. The 26-year-old opened her Madrid campaign with a straight sets win over Anna Blinkova before overcoming former doubles partner Elise Mertens in three sets.

Stearns arrived in Madrid with a negative 8-10 record on the season, but she's playing her best tennis of the year in the Spanish capital.

The American had suffered a first or second round exit in nine of her last 10 tournaments, so not much was expected of her in Madrid.

However, Stearns has been extremely impressive, coming from a set down to beat Kim Birrell and taking the scalp of 15th seed Amanda Anisimova, prevailing 7-5 in the third.

The 23-year-old then set up this meeting with Sabalenka with a crushing 6-2 6-0 victory over qualifier Rebeka Masarova in the third round.