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Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Tips - Medvedev to blitz Djokovic in AO Final

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Djokovic vs Medvedev
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Dan Hunter 19 Feb 2021
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Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev Tips


World no.1 Novak Djokovic faces 4th seed Daniil Medvedev in the final of the 2021 Australian Open on Sunday. The Serbian superstar is chasing a 9th title in Melbourne, and an 18th Grand Slam trophy, an achievement that would put him just two adrift of the record of 20 shared by his arch-rivals Roger Federer and Rafael Nadal. 

Medvedev has reached his second slam final in even better shape that he did in 2019, when he lost a five-set classic to Rafael Nadal. Medvedev is in his fourth consecutive major final, having won the Paris Masters, the ATP Finals and the ATP Cup, winning 20 straight matches, 12 against top-ten ranked players.

The bookies cannot split these two, and have both men at $1.91. I am going to make a stand and pick Medvedev to break Djokovic’s streak of eight finals without defeat. Not only that, I’m going to stick my neck out and go for Medvedev to win his first slam in straight sets. My reasoning is the Russian is ruthless, and he won’t want to give Djokovic an inch, so he will have his foot hard on the gas throughout this match. 

  • Djokovic is world no.1 
  • Djokovic 8 x Australian Open champion 
  • Medvedev has won last 3 tournaments
  • Medvedev on 20-match winning streak 

Head to Head


The head to head between the two players who meet on Sunday is really 3-2 to Medvedev, even though it is actually 5-3 to Djokovic. Let me explain: Djokovic’s first win over Medvedev was back in 2017 in a Davis Cup match. Medvedev retired with the score at 6-3 4-6 0-1. He was ranked 65 in the world, Djokovic was ranked 2nd. 

Their next encounter occurred at Eastbourne on grass that same year, with Medvedev now 52nd in the world. Djokovic won 6-4 6-4. For me these results have no relevance on Sunday’s outcome. 

In 2019 at the Australian Open, world no.1 Djokovic defeated 19th ranked Medvedev 6-4 6-7 6-2 6-3. This Medvedev was still not the beast who would emerge later on that year. A few months after, Medvedev defeated Djokovic for the first time, on the clay in Monte Carlo 6-3 4-6 6-2. By now Medvedev is world no.14.  

A couple of months later Medvedev defeated Djokovic 3-6 6-3 6-3 in the Cincinnati Master semis, and by then he was the terminator we see today. Last year Djokovic defeated Medvedev in the ATP Cup 6-1 5-7 6-4, his best win over the Russian. Their last meeting came at the group stage of the ATP Finals last November, and Medvedev won 6-3 6-3. 

Novak Djokovic Form 


Djokovic has dropped a total of 5 sets in his run to the final, against Frances Tiafoe in the second round, Taylor Fritz (two) in the third, Milos Raonic in the last-16, and Alexander Zverev in the quarterfinals. Only in his semifinal against world no.114 Aslan Karatsev did the defending champion win in straight sets. 

Because of this, it’s difficult to assess exactly where Djokovic’s game is. Certainly in the last three sets vs Zverev and his match against Karatsev he looked as good as ever. There was no sign of the mysterious torn abdomen he claimed he’d suffered against Taylor Fritz. 

Djokovic is the master of mind games, but he may have played his injury card too soon this time. However don’t be too surprised if it suddenly reoccurs prior or even during the final.

Daniil Medvedev Form


Medvedev could not have hoped for a better run in to his second slam final. He is the most in-form player on the planet, on a 20-match, three tournament winning streak, and he has just destroyed his semifinal opponent Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets, hitting 46 winners. 

Previously in the quarterfinals, Medvedev was cold and clinical, dissecting his good friend and fellow Russian Andrey Rublev in straight sets 7-5 6-3 6-2. Rublev was the 7th seed and unbeaten in 2021.
Medvedev’s one blip this tournament was his five set match against another Serbian in Filip Krajinovic, although that match was more a case of him taking his foot off the gas. The fact that Medvedev won the final set 6-0 speaks volumes. 

The 24-yaer old Medvedev is a physical freak, a 6’6” beanpole who has the mobility of a man half-a-foot shorter, can crush the ball off both sides, and serves bullets for fun. If scientists were to construct the perfect tennis player in a lab, the outcome would look like Daniil Medvedev. 

Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev FAQ

When is the Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev match taking place?

Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev takes place at 5:00 PM (AEDT) on Sunday, February 21.

Where can I watch a Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev live stream?

Our live streaming calendar shows you where you can watch a Novak Djokovic vs Daniil Medvedev live stream.


US

Verdict

Novak Djokovic has had an incredible run, but that comes to an end on Sunday when Daniil Medvedev defeats him in straight sets. Both are evenly matched on mobility and defence, but where Medvedev surpasses Djokovic is power, off the serve and groundstrokes.
 
The reason why Djokovic has lost so many matches to Rafael Nadal and recently to Stan Wawrinka is the explosive power they bring. If a player can rally with Djokovic and then crush winners, they can beat him.
 
I’m looking for Medvedev to take a page out of Wawrinka’s book, stay calm, play his best game, and he will win, surprisingly easily, and in straight sets.

Best Bet: Medvedev Winner @100.00 at BetMGM - 1 Unit
Best Bet: Medvedev 3-0 Set Betting @400.00 at Caesars (Sport) - 1 Unit
Best Bet: 3-0 Total Sets @175.00 at PlaySugarhouse Sport - 1 Unit

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Novak Djokovic v Daniil Medvedev