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Naomi Osaka vs Serena Williams Tips - Osaka to end Serena’s dream

  • Naomi Osaka vs Serena Williams predictions for Thursday’s Australian Open semifinal match
  • 3rd meeting between Naomi Osaka vs Serena Williams
  • Williams is chasing a 24th Grand Slam title
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Naomi Osaka
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Dan Hunter 17 Feb 2021
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Naomi Osaka vs Serena Williams Tips


The 3rd seed and bookies favorite Naomi Osaka of Japan takes on the great Serena Williams for a place in the final of the Australian Open on Thursday. Osaka is chasing her fourth slam title, having previously won at the US Open in 2018 and 2020, and the Australian Open in 2019. 

Now 39, the 10th seeded Williams is still hoping to equal Margaret Court’s record of 24 singles majors. Unfortunately for Serena, the wait will have to continue, as Naomi Osaka will extend her head-to-head lead over the African-American legend to 3-1 with a straight sets win on Thursday. 

  • Osaka leads head-to-head 2-1
  • Osaka bookies favourite in Melbourne
  • Williams seven times champion in Melbourne
  • Williams last slam was the AO in Melbourne 2017

Head to Head


Naomi Osaka and Serena Williams have played each other three times before, and Osaka leads their head to head by two wins to one. Osaka won their first ever meeting in the first round in Miami in 2018 6-3 6-2, and then defeated Serena later that year in the final of the US Open 6-2 6-4. Williams beat Osaka in their most recent encounter at the Toronto WTA quarterfinals 6-3 6-4 in 2019. 

Interestingly, all of their prior meetings plus their upcoming match on Thursday will have been played on the super fast Rebound Ace surface that is used on most hard court competitions on the WTA and ATP tours. Had this match been on clay, Williams would have had more of a chance.

Naomi Osaka Form


Naomi Osaka first burst into our consciousness as a ridiculously talented but painfully shy teenager, who thrashed Serena Williams so badly in the 2018 US Open final, the normally affable Williams was reduced to one of her rare but notorious on-court meltdowns. 

Osaka proved she was no flash in the pan by winning the next major also, in Australia the following January. She subsequently suffered early exits at both Roland Garros and Wimbledon in 2019, and then surrendered her US Open title with a fourth round defeat to Belinda Bencic. 

However, by 2020 she was back winning slams, regaining her US Open title, and reestablishing herself as the best player on the WTA tour. 

In Melbourne this year she has conceded just one set – to Spain’s powerful hitting Garbine Muguruza in the fourth round, but she rebounded to win the match 4-6 6-4 7-5. Osaka possesses a rare lethal blend of devastating power and lightning quickness about the court, and at her best she is virtually unplayable. 

Serena Williams Form 


Williams won the last of her 23 slams in Melbourne in 2017. Since then she has fallen short of her goal to equal Margaret Court’s slam haul of 24, losing in the finals at the 2018 and 2019 US Opens. Serena turns 40 in September, and she knows this might be her last shot at achieving her goal. 

In Melbourne this year she has played better than in her last couple of seasons. After winning her first three matches without dropping a set, she had her first test in 7th seed Aryna Sabalenka, and Williams was forced to fight to win 6-4 2-6 6-4. 

Most experts thought her run would end in the quarterfinals when she came up against the no.2 seed Simona Halep. However Serena rolled back the years to thump Halep 6-3 6-3, her tenth win against three defeats versus the Romanian. 

Naomi Osaka vs Serena Williams FAQ

When is the Naomi Osaka vs Serena Williams match taking place?

Naomi Osaka vs Serena Williams takes place at 2:00 PM (AEDT) on Thursday, February 18

Where can I watch a Naomi Osaka vs Serena Williams live stream?

Our live streaming calendar shows you where you can watch a Naomi Osaka vs Serena Williams live stream.


US

Verdict

The problem facing Serena Williams is that in Naomi Osaka, she is playing against a 23-year old version of herself. She may have the greater experience, but she lacks quickness, and has looked ponderous on the court for many years.
 
Serena has relied on her still-devastating firepower to get her to the semis, but that won’t be nearly enough against Osaka, who has proved in the past that she can return Serena best shots with interest.
 
Add to that Osaka’s speed and tennis brain, and you have only one outcome, a straight sets win for the third seed.

Best Bet: Osaka Winner @-161.29 at BetMGM - 1 Unit
Best Bet: 2 Sets Total Sets @-188.68 at Caesars (Sport) - 3 Units
Value Bet: Osaka 2-0 Set Betting @150.00 at PlaySugarhouse Sport - 1 Unit

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Naomi Osaka v Serena Williams