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Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Rune good value as underdog in Melbourne

andrew-hendrie
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Last updated: 15 Jan 2025
Andrew Hendrie 15 Jan 2025
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  • Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini predictions for Thursday's Australian Open R2 match
  • All three completed previous meetings have been decided in a final set
  • Rune won both 2024 meetings in a deciding set
  • The match is scheduled to start around 5.00pm AEDT on Thursday January 16
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Holger Rune
Holger Rune (Photo by Getty Images)


Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream


One of the marquee matchups of the Australian Open second round pits former top 10 players Holger Rune and Matteo Berrettini against each other.

  • Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream
  • Head To Head
  • Holger Rune Form
  • Matteo Berrettini Form
  • Live Stream
It promises to be another close contest, with the three previous completed matches between the pair all going to a deciding set. With this in mind, Over 39.5 total games is backed as the best bet here, while Rune represents good value as the slight underdog. The Dane has won the last two meetings and has the tools to exploit Berrettini's weaker backhand side. Rune survived in five sets in his opening round and the 21-year-old is worth a small stake to get the job done in another marathon encounter.

Head To Head


Rune leads 2-1 in completed matches. Berrettini won the first meeting between the pair 6-3 4-6 6-4 in the second round of Indian Wells 2022 before Rune returned the favour with a pair of three-set victories in Cincinnati and Shanghai in 2024.

Holger Rune Form


Expected to join Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz in taking his game to the next level and challenging for Grand Slam titles in 2024, you can say that it was a hugely disappointing year for Rune.

The 21-year-old dropped out of the top 10 and his best result at the majors was a pair of R16 finishes at Roland Garros and Wimbledon.

Rune went through a host of coaching changes and simply looked lost and confused as to how to take that next step in his career.

It was a rough start to 2025 as well, with Rune having the misfortune of drawing Jiri Lehecka in the opening round of Brisbane, with the Czech going on to win the title.

However, Rune will bring some confidence into this encounter, coming back, surviving another tough opening round draw at the Australian Open, edging out Zhang Ze in five sets.

Matteo Berrettini Form


A top 10 mainstay before injuries halted his progress, Berrettini is trying to work his way back up the rankings towards the top of the game, coming into the Australian Open at No. 34 in the world.

Berrettini won three ATP 250 titles after returning from injury in the second-half of 2024, but he couldn't put together a deep run at a slam, running into Jannik Sinner and Taylor Fritz in the second rounds of Wimbledon and the US Open respectively.

The Italian also suffered an opening round loss in Brisbane to kick off his 2025 season, going down in three sets to Jordan Thompson.

Berrettini bounced back to win his first match at the Australian Open since making the semi-finals in 2022, toppling Cameron Norrie in four sets.

Live Stream


Watch and bet on Holger Rune vs Matteo Berrettini live Australian Open tennis.

You can watch and bet on the match live at bet365 > Tennis > Australian Open with the action available to stream on desktop and mobile.

Geo-restrictions apply, you'll need a funded account or to have placed a bet in the last 24 hours to gain access. 18+ terms and conditions apply.

Verdict

All three completed meetings between these two players have gone to a deciding set and this Australian Open second round showdown should prove another tight battle.

Over 39.5 total games is the play here, while Rune looks good value in the H2H market. The Dane can use his forehand to target the weaker backhand wing of Berrettini and he's had the Italian's number, winning both 2024 encounters between the pair. Rune in five is our value set betting pick.

Best Bet1: Over 39.5 Total Games $1.68 at Betr - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Rune Win H2H $2.16 at Elitebet - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Rune 3-2 Set Betting $6.00 at picklebet - 1 Unit
Over 39.5
Total Games
$1.68 - 3 Units
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Betting Slip | 16 Jan 2025

Holger Rune v Matteo Berrettini