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Roberto Bautista-Agut vs Andrey Rublev Tips - Rublev to overpower Bautista-Agut in 3 sets

  • Roberto Bautista-Agut vs Andrey Rublev predictions for Friday’s Qatar Open semis
  • 1st meeting of the season between Bautista-Agut & Rublev
  • Bautista-Agut & Rublev head-to-head is 2-2
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Andrey Rublev
(Getty Images)
Dan Hunter 12 Mar 2021
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Roberto Bautista-Agut vs Andrey Rublev Tips 

The last two winners of the title here in Doha - Roberto Bautista-Agut and Andrey Rublev – face each other on Friday (March 12) for a place in Saturday’s ATP 250 Qatar Open final. Spaniard Bautista-Agut – winner in 2019 – defeated top-seed and world no.4 Dominic Thiem on Thursday to reach the semis. 

2020 Doha champion Andrey Rublev of Russia became the first player ever to reach an ATP semifinal without hitting a ball, thanks to a first round bye followed by two injury withdrawals from Richard Gasquet (leg) in the last-16 and Marton Fucsovics (back) in the quarterfinals. It’s unlikely that Rublev wished to make tennis history in this manner, but as he won last week’s tournament in Rotterdam, he has probably benefited from the rest.

(Getty Images)

Having watched Andrey Rublev overpower Marton Fucsovics in last Sunday’s Rotterdam ATP 500 final, I’m backing the Russian to defeat Bautista-Agut on Friday. Rublev might drop the first set as he shakes off any rust he has acquired, but once into his rhythm, he is virtually unplayable on a hardcourt right now.

  • Bautista-Agut seeded 5th 
  • Bautista-Agut reached final in Montpellier 
  • Rublev seeded no.3
  • Rublev is 13-1 this season 

Head to Head 

Andrey Rublev and Roberto Bautista-Agut have played each other four times previously, with the score at 2-2. Bautista-Agut won their first two meetings, in Valencia in 2015 on an indoor hardcourt where he won 6-2, 6-3. In 2018 Bautista-Agut defeated Rublev 6-3, 6-4 outdoors on a hardcourt at the ATP Shanghai Masters. 

In 2019, Rublev beat Bautista-Agut in a Davis cup tie in Spain 3-6, 6-3, 7-6, and finally in 2020, Rublev defeated Bautista-Agut 6-2, 7-5 outdoors on clay in Hamburg.

Roberto Bautista-Agut Form

32-year old former world no.9 Roberto Bautista-Agut has been struggling to find his best form in 2021. A disappointing performance at the ATP Cup in February saw him lose in straight sets to Stefanos Tsitsipas and Matteo Berrettini. He then lost in the first round of the Australian Open, going out in four sets to world no.85 Radu Albot. 

After his early exit from Melbourne, Bautista-Agut played in the ATP 250 event at Montpellier in France and reached the final, losing to David Goffin in three sets. However last week in Rotterdam, Bautista-Agut lost in the first round to Spanish prospect Alejandro Davidovic. 

However, the Spaniard has looked increasingly impressive this week, defeating the giant American Riley Opelka in the last-32 in three sets, easily beating 23-year-old Russian prospect Alexander Bublik in straight sets in the last-16, and then upsetting the top seed Dominic team in the quarterfinals 7-6, 2-6, 6-4.

Andrey Rublev Form

23-year-old Andrey Rublev has had a dream start to 2021; he was part of the Russian team that lifted the ATP Cup in February, he then reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, and then last week he won the ATP 500 event in Rotterdam for the loss of just one set - his fourth consecutive ATP 500 title.

This week in Doha, Rublev was hoping to improve on his 13-1 record for the year, but instead he has made history by becoming the first player to reach the semifinals of an ATP event without playing a match, thanks to his two scheduled opponents withdrawing from the competition.

We know that Rublev has been in fearsome form in those ATP 500 events, but is he really scaring his opponents away from the courts? As the third seed for this event, he was given a bye for the first round. He was then scheduled to play Richard Gasquet in the last-16, but the Frenchman withdrew with a leg injury.

In the quarterfinals he was set to repeat his Rotterdam final against Marton Fucsovics, however the Hungarian “iron man” proved he was human by withdrawing from the competition with a back strain. 

Roberto Bautista-Agut vs Andrey Rublev FAQ

When is the Roberto Bautista-Agut vs Andrey Rublev match taking place?

Roberto Bautista-Agut vs Andrey Rublev takes place at 01:00 AM (AEDT) on Friday March 12

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On Friday we will soon find out if playing no competitive tennis this week has helped or hindered Rublev. As the Russian played four matches in Rotterdam last week, culminating with his win in the final, I’m guessing that having the first four days of the week with his feet up will only recharge Rublev’s batteries.

I’m backing the Russian to carry on where he left off in his final against Marton Fucsovics last Sunday, serving bombs and crushing his groundstrokes with devastating accuracy. Bautista-Agut pulled off one of the best wins of his career on paper when he defeated Dominic Thiem on Thursday, but in reality the Austrian hasn’t been at his best so far this season.

I’m backing Rublev to defeat Bautista-Agut in three sets on Friday, and set himself up where second straight ATP title.
Best Bet: Rublev Winner @-227.27 at BetMGM - 1 Unit
Best Bet: 3 Sets Total Sets @150.00 at Caesars (Sport) - 1 Unit
Best Bet: Rublev 2-1 Set Betting @300.00 at PlaySugarhouse Sport - 1 Unit
Value Bet: Bautista-Agut Set 1 Winner @150.00 at bet365 Sport NJ - 1 Unit

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Roberto Bautista-Agut v Andrey Rublev