Joao Fonseca vs Jacob Fearnley Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Fonseca to secure maiden Indian Wells win

Fonseca's star-power is already immense, with the teenage sensation commanding top billing with the first match on Stadium 1 - despite this being just his second ever Masters 1000 tournament. The Brazilian is riding an incredible run of form, coming into this contest having won 19 of his last 22 matches at all levels - including blitzing Fearnley in straight sets in the Canberra Challenger semi-finals to launch 2025. I'm backing a similar result in Indian Wells - Fonseca is just on another level and if he produces the tennis he has over the last three months, there should only be one winner in the Californian desert.

As mentioned, Fonseca won the only previous meeting between the pair, easing to a 6-3 6-3 victory at the Canberra Challenger in January.

There's not many players on tour with this sort of form line right now, with Fonseca winning 19 of his last 22 matches dating back to the Next Gen ATP Finals at the end of 2024.

Fonseca took out that title before storming to the Canberra Challenger title to begin 2025. Continuing his momentum, Fonseca proceeded to qualify for the Australian Open without dropping a set before knocking out top 10 player Andrey Rublev in straight sets in the first round.

The 18-year-old was bundled out in the second round by eventual quarter-finalist Lorenzo Sonego, but he bounced back strongly, going all the way to claim his maiden ATP title on the clay of Buenos Aires - defeating four Argentines on his way to the title, including Francisco Cerundolo in the final.

Fonseca admitted he was still learning to deal with his new-found fame at his home tournament in Rio, where he suffered a first round defeat to Alexandre Muller, but he's had plenty of time to prepare for Indian Wells and should be ready to continue his irresistible form this tournament.

It's been a rapid rise for Fearnley, who this time last year was ranked outside the top 500.

Fast forward to present times and Fearnley is No. 81 in the world and looking to rise even higher following some impressive results.

The 23-year-old launched the season by making the Canberra Challenger semi-finals (lost to Fonseca) before reaching the third round of a Grand Slam for the first time, defeating Nick Kyrgios and Arthur Cazaux before going down to Alexander Zverev.

Fearnley actually hasn't played a tour-level event since the AO and was last seen going out in the quarter-finals of the Pau Challenger in straight sets to Lukas Klein.