Jack Draper vs Matteo Berrettini Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Tight contest predicted in Madrid R3

Both previous meetings between the pair have gone the distance and in these altitude conditions in Madrid, another tight contest is expected. Both players have excellent serves, which will be extremely difficult to return in this sort of environment.

Draper has been on fire since the US Open last year, but he hasn't really had the chance to make much of an impact on clay at this level, so it will be interesting to see his results over the coming months. Berrettini meanwhile won 15 of his 16 clay matches in 2024 and made the final of Madrid in his only previous appearance at the tournament back in 2021 - safe to say the powerful Italian enjoys the altitude in the Spanish capital.

I'm backing Over 22.5 total games for this encounter, with Berrettini also favoured to cover a +2.5 line in a match where the serve should again dictate.

Draper leads 2-0, with both matches going three sets. The Brit was a 3-6 7-6 6-4 winner in the final of Stuttgart in 2024 before edging out a 46 64 63 victory in the Doha quarter-finals earlier in 2025.

Draper has compiled a 15-4 record so far this season, losing just three completed matches.

Undoubtedly the highlight of Draper's year came in Indian Wells, where he put together a brilliant tournament to capture his maiden Masters 1000 title, defeating the likes of Joao Fonseca, Ben Shelton, Taylor Fritz, Carlos Alcaraz and Holger Rune on his way to the silverware.

Facing a quick turnaround for Miami, Draper lost his opening match against eventual champion Jakub Mensik and also had a tough draw in Monte Carlo, going down in his second match to the in-form Alejandro Davidovich Fokina.

After failing to make it past the Madrid second round in both of his previous appearances at the tournament, Draper has already posted his career-best result at the tournament after easing past Tallon Griekspoor 6-3 6-4 to reach the third round.

Berrettini comes into this clash with a 12-8 record on the season, improving with each tournament as he looks to get back towards the top 10.

The Italian made the Miami Masters quarter-finals before defeating Alexander Zverev on his way to the Monte Carlo R16 to launch his clay swing.

Having won three titles and 15 of his 16 clay matches in 2024, Berrettini is obviously confident on this surface and he continued his good form in his Madrid opener, coming back to defeat Marcos Giron 6-7 7-6 6-1 in his opening match.

Berrettini has only played in Madrid once before, reaching the final in 2021 before going down in three sets to Zverev.