Arthur Fils vs Pablo Carreno Busta Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Carreno Busta can push Fils in Barcelona opener

I have some initial doubts. Fils has spent considerable emotional and physical energy over the last couple of months, reaching three consecutive Masters 1000 quarter-finals at Indian Wells, Miami and Monte Carlo. The Frenchman has played some brilliant tennis, but that level is tough to sustain, especially when you have never gone this long producing that sort of tennis. I just have a feeling this could be a letdown spot for Fils.

I would have liked Carreno Busta to be in better form, but the Spaniard should be motivated to perform in front of his home fans in Barcelona, a tournament where he's won seven of his last nine matches, reaching the semi-finals and final in his last two appearances. I'm backing Carreno Busta to be competitive enough to push this match Over 20.5 total games and covering a +4.5 games line, while I'll also have a smaller stake on the Spaniard to prevail outright.

This will be the first career meeting between the pair.

It's been an outstanding season for Fils, with the rising star compiling a 14-7 record and rising to a career-high ranking of No. 14 in the world.

The 20-year-old started the year slowly, retiring in the third round of the Australian Open and failing to win back-to-back matches at ATP 500 events in Rotterdam and Dubai.

However, Fils raised his level for the last three Masters 1000 events, reaching his first three quarter-finals at that level. The Frenchman lost all three of those matches in deciding sets, including against eventual champions Jakub Mensik and Carlos Alcaraz in Miami and Monte Carlo respectively.

Fils has only played Barcelona once before, beating Alex de Minaur on his way to the quarter-finals last year, where he suffered a defeat to Dusan Lajovic.

Carreno Busta has spent the bulk of 2025 on the Challenger Tour in a bid to rebuild his ranking after a long injury layoff.

Those efforts have somewhat paid off, with Carreno Busta re-entering the top 100 this week after reaching the quarter-finals of a Challenger in Madrid last week.

The former top 10 player has struggled when playing at tour-level however, compiling a 3-5 record and failing to win back-to-back matches since Winston-Salem in August 2024.

Carreno Busta has performed strongly in his most recent appearances in Barcelona, making the semi-finals in 2021 and final in 2022, going down to Rafael Nadal and Carlos Alcaraz respectively.