Alex de Minaur vs Lorenzo Musetti Tips, Prediction & Live Stream - Can Musetti repeat Monte Carlo triumph in Madrid?

Musetti came back from a set down to conquer de Minaur in the Monte Carlo semi-finals earlier this month and now the Italian will be aiming to double down in the Spanish capital. Musetti is likely to secure a spot inside the top 10 for the first time post-Madrid, but he will be determined to prove his run to the Monte Carlo final was no fluke - and he's got a decent draw for a chance to play for the title.

De Minaur meanwhile has proven his worth on clay over the last 12 months, reaching the French Open quarter-finals last year, along with the semis of Monte Carlo and quarter-finals in Barcelona. This should be another cracking contest between two evenly-matched players, so I'm backing Over 21.5 total games as the best bet, while Musetti is the more natural clay courter and has a recent win over the Demon on this surface. As such, the Italian is the value bet as the slight underdog here.

De Minaur won the first meeting between the pair at the 2022 Australian Open, but Musetti has won the last two encounters, including on grass at Queen's in three sets last year before a superb comeback victory in Monte Carlo earlier this month.

Only Carlos Alcaraz can match de Minaur when it comes to wins this season, with the Aussie posting a 24-8 record so far in 2025.

De Minaur in my eyes is becoming a David Ferrer sort of player - he's consistently beating those ranked below him, but struggling against the very elite or in-form players.

Case in point - Demon's first two defeats of the season were against Jannik Sinner in the Australian Open quarter-finals and Alcaraz in the Rotterdam final.

Alcaraz also got the better of de Minaur in the Barcelona quarter-finals after Musetti produced some inspired tennis to edge him out in the Monte Carlo semi-finals.

De Minaur has got back to business in Madrid, defeating Lorenzo Sonego and Denis Shapovalov in straight sets to reach the R16 for just the second time.

Musetti has put together a 14-5 record on the season and has surged into the top 10 in the live ATP rankings courtesy of his stellar clay swing to date.

The Italian didn't make much of an impact on hardcourt to start the year, but he roared to life on his preferred clay, conquering the likes of Stefanos Tsitsipas, Matteo Berrettini, Jiri Lehecka and de Minaur to reach his first Masters 1000 final in Monte Carlo, taking the opening set off Alcaraz in the final before fading physically.

Musetti made the wise decision to withdraw from Barcelona the following week, returning to action in Madrid and picking up from where he left off in Monte Carlo.

The 23-year-old is yet to drop a set in making the R16, beating Tomas Martin Etcheverry before a superb 7-5 7-6 win over Tsitsipas, coming back from 2-5 down in the opening set.