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Rebels vs Brumbies Tips - Rebels to cause an upset?

  • Rebels vs Brumbies predictions for Sunday’s Super Rugby AU fixture
  • Rebels have won their last 4 home matches against the Brumbies
  • Preview, predictions, stats & team news
Brumbies vs Rebels
Rebels have won their last four matches at home against the Brumbies (Getty Images)
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Rebels vs Brumbies Tips


The Rebels are strong defensively but their attack is a great concern. They do however have the advantage over the Brumbies on home soil so I can see them pushing the Canberra side all the way in this one. My best bet is for the Rebels to lose by less than five.

  • Rebels have won their last 4 home matches against the Brumbies.
  • Rebels lost by less than 5 points in their last match against the Brumbies.
  • Rebels have won or loss by less than 4 points in 5 of their last 6 matches. 
  • Brumbies have scored the most (33) tries in Super Rugby AU.

Head to Head


The Brumbies hold a 15-8 advantage over the Rebels in their last 23 Super Rugby matches.

Last season they each won their home matches against each other. The Brumbies won 31-23 in Canberra while the Rebels 30-12 in Melbourne in their last match.

Rebels Form


The Rebels are currently in third place, one point ahead of the Western Force. They will be keen to hold onto this spot with the third placed side facing the second placed side for a place in the final later in the competition.

Super Rugby AU started slowly for the Rebels as they suffered narrow defeats to the Reds and Brumbies. They bounced back with victories over the Waratahs (33-13) and the Force (10-7) but then lost 44-19 at home to the Reds.

Last week the Rebels took another big blow as the Western Force came to Melbourne and won 16-15. That has opened up the final playoff spot significantly.

The Rebels have struggled hugely on attack with only eight tries in six matches this season. Compare that to the Brumbies who have scored 33 and the Reds 30.

What has kept the Rebels alive is their defence. They have conceded the least points (131) in Super Rugby AU.

Rebels Team News


The Rebels have made a few changes to their side for this massive match. Campbell Magnay will start at inside centre and Tim Pincus at fullback. Reece Hodge misses out completely through injury.

In the forward pack, Matt Gibbon will start at prop ahead of Cabous Eloff.

Brumbies Form


The Brumbies have little to play for in second place. They can no longer catch the Reds at the top of the table and cannot be caught by the Rebels below them. They will host the third placed side in three weeks for a place in the final.

After winning Super Rugby AU last season, the Brumbies will be disappointed with how this season has gone. Their only defeats have come at the hands of the Reds – both by two points – but they have not hit the heights of last season.

The Brumbies narrowly beat the Waratahs 24-22 two weeks ago but then lost 24-22 at the Reds last week. It was a match the Brumbies should have won, much like the one earlier in the season against the Reds.

Brumbies Team News


Bayley Kuenzle makes a comeback for the Brumbies this week at inside centre while Ryan Lonergan gets an opportunity ahead of Nick White at scrumhalf.

There are three changes in the forward pack with Rory Scott and James Tucker starting in the loose trio, and Scott Sio taking over from James Slipper at prop.

Rebels vs Brumbies FAQs

Where can I watch the Rebels vs Brumbies live stream?

Our live streaming calendar shows you where to watch the Brumbies live stream.

When is Rebels vs Brumbies being played?

The match is being played at AAMI Park on Sunday, April 18.

US

Verdict

Rebels have a good record against the Brumbies in Melbourne with four successive victories. I'm backing the hosts to get within five points of the Canberra side with an outside chance of victory.

Best Bet: Rebels +5 Handicap Handicap @-109.89 at BetMGM - 3 Units
Value Bet: Rebels Win Full Time Result @200.00 at Caesars (Sport) - 1 Unit

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Rebels v Brumbies