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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors Tips - Warriors break losing trend against Rabbitohs

Ryan Tucker

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Last updated: 05 Apr 2024

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Ryan Tucker 05 Apr 2024

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South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors expert predictions for Saturday’s Round 5 NRL game
Kick off is at 3:00 PM at Accor Stadium
New Zealand Warriors are expected to break their 5-year drought against the South Sydney Rabbitohs in Round 5 2024 NRL game.
Warriors' strong running through the middle and Rabbitohs' current form can play a crucial role in the game.

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Marcelo Montoya of the Warriors scores a try (Getty Images)

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors Tips

The New Zealand Warriors can break their five-year drought against the South Sydney Rabbitohs with a win at Accor on Saturday.

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors Tips
Head to Head
South Sydney Rabbitohs Form Analysis & Betting Trends
South Sydney Rabbitohs Team News
South Sydney Rabbitohs Team List
New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends
New Zealand Warriors Team News
New Zealand Warriors Team List
South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors NRL 2024 Round 5 FAQ’s

The Warriors and Rabbitohs have both underperformed their pre-season expectations so far this season with Souths more of a disappointment than their round 5 opponents.

Coming into the season there was a lot of hype around the Rabbits and their recruitment of Jack Wighton together with renewed hope of an energised Latrell Mitchell and strong backline. It has been hard going over the past month with Wighton out due to suspension, multiple injuries hampering the backs and Latrell still looking a shell of his former self at fullback.

New Zealand are a team many, including myself, had pegged for a top 4 finish in 2024. They started the season with two four point losses to the Sharks and Storm in games that they should have won based on the statistical advantage they enjoyed through parts of those games.

The major issue surrounding this team is their ability to take advantage of the field position and attacking pressure that their outside backs and forwards have created through strong running through the middle of the park.

They now come up against a Rabbitohs team that has concedes the most Run Metres on average per game to their opponent with 1521 m/gm. This will allow tremendous field position for the Warriors to launch attacking raids on the Souths tryline, the question will be whether they can convert their chances.

My prediction is that they will, in turn breaking the seven-game Souths winning streak.

South Sydney allow the most Run Metres on average to their opposition per game at 1521m
New Zealand average 1525 Run Metres per game ranking 2nd in the NRL
7 of the last 8 games between these teams have gone Over the Game Total
Marcelo Montoya has scored 4 tries in his last 4 games against Souths

Head to Head

South Sydney have dominated the Warriors since the start of the 2019 season. They have won 7 games on the trot with 5 of those games having margins of 21 points or more.

In the sole match-up last year South Sydney ran out winners 28-6 in New Zealand as 4.5 point Underdogs. That game went Under the total with the previous 6 in a row going Over the Game Total

It has been the edge defence for New Zealand that has struggled against the dynamic South Sydney backline which for a number of years was the best in the league. That form though has not yet been seen this season and the Warriors D has gotten decidedly better averaging only 17 opposition points per game this season.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
1-3	0-4	3-1

2024 Betting Trends

$10 ML	Over/Under	1-12	13+
-$24.7	3-1	1-2	0-1

Souths are topping the statistics table in all the wrong places. They have allowed the most Opposition Points on average of any team across the first month of play as well as having the highest average Opposition Run Metres.

They rank second last in Opposition Line Breaks allowing 6 per game and are third last in the league in Tackles Inside Opposition 20m.

There is a lot that needs to be fixed but the squad has shown in previous years they are capable of performing at a high level. It is the application that is lacking.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Team News

Alex Johnston is out with a hammy, Izaac Thompson comes onto the wing with Jacob Gagai in the reserves.

Shaq Mitchell is out with concussion protocol, Sean Keppie takes his place on the bench. Dean Hawkins remains as the halfback with Lachlan Ilias named in the reserves.

South Sydney Rabbitohs Team List

1. Latrell Mitchell

2. Izaac Thompson

3. Jack Wighton

4. Isaiah Tass

5. Taane Milne

6. Cody Walker

7. Dean Hawkins

8. Tevita Tatola

9. Damien Cook

10. Tom Burgess

11. Keaon Koloamatangi

12. Jacob Host

13. Cam Murray

Interchange

14. Michael Chee Kam

15. Tallis Duncan

16. Sean Keppie

17. Davvy Moale

Reserves

18. Peter Mamouzelos

19. Lachlan Ilias

20. Richard Kennar

21. Jye Gray

22. Jacob Gagai

New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends

Recent Form

Last 5 W/L	Last 5 ATS	Last 5 O/U
2-2	1-3	1-3

2024 Betting Trends

$10 ML	Over/Under	1-12	13+
$17.5	1-3	2-2	0-0

New Zealand have managed to scrounge back two wins after starting the season 0-2. It is easy to see that the Warriors game plan this year is to get quick play the balls and roll the outside backs and forwards up the field through the middle of the opposition pack.

They have amassed the second most Run Metres per game of any team in the league whilst averaging 5 linebreaks per game which is equal 3rd in the NRL.

Why they haven’t blown out any teams and have lost two games sits in their ability to convert the chances on offer into points.

With Luke Metcalf now out for a period of time the old combination of Shaun Johnson and Te Maire Martin could jolt some life back into this attack that is just waiting for a coming out party.

New Zealand Warriors Team News

Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad returns to the team slotting in at his regular fullback position with RTS moving back to the centres despite a terrific game last weekend. Adam Pompey is the man that makes room.

With Luke Metcalf succumbing to a broken leg Te Maire Martin gets first shot at the five-eighth position ahead of Chanel Harris-Tevita who has been named in the reserves. Kurt Capewell is out and Marata Niukore is in.

Freddy Lussick is named in the 14 jumper as the utility and with Dylan Walker still out Jazz Tevaga keeps his spot on the interchange bench.

New Zealand Warriors Team List

1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad

2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak

3. Rocco Berry

4. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck

5. Marcelo Montoya

6. Te Maire Martin

7. Shaun Johnson

8. Addin Fonua-Blake

9. Wayde Egan

10. Mitch Barnett

11. Jackson Ford

12. Marata Niukore

13. Tohu Harris

Interchange

14. Freddy Lussick

15. Tom Ale

16. Bunty Afoa

17. Jazz Tevaga

Reserves

18. Adam Pompey

20. Jacob Laban

21. Chanel Harris-Tavita

22. Edward Kosi

23. Ali Leiataua

South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors NRL 2024 Round 5 FAQs

How to watch South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors NRL 2024 Round 5?

You can watch the South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors NRL 2024 Round 5 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors NRL 2024 Round 5?

To buy tickets to the South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors NRL 2024 Round 5 game check the NRL website or the official South Sydney Rabbitohs site.

Verdict

South Sydney Rabbitohs v New Zealand Warriors

Unfortunately for South Sydney their problem is in effort, application and pure hunger. Those things can’t be fixed overnight and with the recent form of these teams taking the Warriors here is an easy bet.

Even though the Over trend has been hit thanks to the Rabbitohs in recent years my prediction is that the Warriors will continue their hard running through the middle and start to convert their chances against a team that has little heart to stand up against the constant barrage.

Montoya loves a meat pie against Souths and will cross in this game. AFB is a lock for First Tryscorer in every Warriors game for the rest of his career.

Warriors -1.5

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