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Penrith Panthers vs Brisbane Broncos Tips - Broncos to deny Penrith a 3-peat in NRL Grand Final

Last updated: 30 Sep 2023
Jeremy Darke 30 Sep 2023
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  • Penrith Panthers vs Brisbane Broncos predictions for Sunday’s NRL game
  • 2023 NRL Grand Final Tips
  • Who will win the 2023 NRL Grand Final?
  • Preview, stats, team news & more
Brisbane Broncos, Reece Walsh
Reece Walsh ready to break the 2023 NRL Grand Final wide open. (Getty Images)

2023 NRL Grand Final Tips

It is time, the 2023 Grand Final is here and there are no two clubs that deserve to be there more than the Penrith Panthers and the Brisbane Broncos. They will play it out to be crowned the 2023 NRL Premiers.

Penrith and Brisbane have set the benchmark for the rest of the competition all season long and it is going to be hard to split the two on Sunday. 

Both halfbacks control the game better than anyone in the NRL and it is going to be a real battle of territory, especially in the first half of this game. Both teams have the best defensive records in the league, Penrith conceding just 12 points per game while Brisbane concede an average of 16 points.

Brisbane haven’t played at Accor all season, however, they have been no slouches on the road, winning all but one game away from Suncorp this season, which was at AAMI Park against Melbourne. 

Reece Walsh had three try assists and six linebreak assists in the Broncos' win against the Warriors last week and is shaping up to be the game-breaker for Brisbane in the Grand Final.

I am going to take the underdog in this one and back the Brisbane moneyline for the extra value. This will be a tight game again between these two clubs, just as it was in their two previous meetings this season. 

The game total is set accordingly, however, I am still going to take the UNDER 39.5 points. Reece Walsh will be a menace all night for Penrith and I will be looking for his short-ball to Herbie Farnworth on the left edge to cash in on the Anytime Tryscorer market.

  • 6 of the last 7 games between Penrith and Brisbane have hit the UNDER game total. 
  • Both teams have conceded an average of just 14.59 points combined in 2023.
  • Brisbane have not lost in NSW this season.
  • Herbie Farnworth scored 2 tries against Penrith in round 1 this season.

Head to Head 

The recent head-to-head history has Penrith on top, winning five of the last seven games against Brisbane.

In 2023, it went one game apiece. 

Brisbane won the first clash way back in round one 13-12, with a 70th-minute field goal by Adam Reynolds the difference. The second meeting took place in round 12 in another tight battle between the two. This time it was Penrith who got up 15-4 in an all-out defensive war once again.

Penrith Panthers Form

The Penrith Panthers had no trouble dismantling the Melbourne Storm for the third time this season, taking care of business comfortably in their 38-4 victory in their preliminary final at Accor Stadium.

Brian To’o scored a hat trick in the Panthers' win against Melbourne, reaping the benefits of another Nathan Cleary masterclass, with the Penrith halfback orchestrating the attack on both sides of the field, getting involved in every tryscoring opportunity for his team.

Penrith were well-rested heading into their preliminary final, beating the Warriors 32-6 in week 1 of the finals. 

Penrith Panthers Team News

Penrith will play the same 17 players that won them the preliminary final against Melbourne.

Penrith Panthers Team List

1. Dylan Edwards
2. Sunia Turuva
3. Izack Tago
4. Stephen Crichton
5. Brian To'o
6. Jarome Luai
7. Nathan Cleary
8. Moses Leota
9. Mitch Kenny
10. James Fisher-Harris
11. Scott Sorensen
12. Liam Martin
13. Isaah Yeo


14. Jack Cogger
15. Lindsay Smith
16. Spencer Leniu
17. Luke Garner


18. Tyrone Peachey
19. Matthew Eisenhuth
20. Zac Hosking
21. Luke Sommerton
22. Tom Jenkins

Brisbane Broncos Form

Brisbane scored three unanswered tries in the second half against the New Zealand Warriors to be run-away victors in the preliminary final 42-12, at Suncorp Stadium.

Reece Walsh was once again the game-changer for the Broncos, tearing the Warriors apart on the edges with one linebreak, six linebreak assists and three try assists.

Brisbane enjoyed the week off before their prelim final, beating the Melbourne Storm 26-0 in the first week of the finals.

Brisbane Broncos Team News

Brisbane survived their preliminary final without injury and have named the same 17 as last week’s game against the Warriors.

Brisbane Broncos Team List

1. Reece Walsh
2. Jesse Arthars
3. Kotoni Staggs
4. Herbie Farnworth
5. Selwyn Cobbo
6. Ezra Mam
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Tom Flegler 
9. Billy Walters
10. Payne Haas
11. Kurt Capewell
12. Jordan Riki
13. Patrick Carrigan


14. Tyson Smoothy
15. Brendan Piakura
16. Kobe Hetherington
17. Keenan Palasia


18. Corey Oates
19. Martin Taupau
20. Corey Jensen
21. Jock Madden
22. Tristan Sailor


Brisbane are backed to win their first NRL Premiership in 17 years, beating the Penrith Panthers in a low-scoring game that will go UNDER the game total. Reece Walsh will be electric and will put Herbie Farnworth over for a try.
Best Bet1: Brisbane Broncos Moneyline @6/4 at Boombet - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 39.5 Game Total @9/10 at Unibet Australia - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Herbie Farnworth Anytime Tryscorer @40/17 at Ladbrokes Australia - 2 Units
Best Bet4: Herbie Farnworth First Tryscorer @16/1 at dabble - 1 Unit
Brisbane Broncos
@6/4 - 3 Units
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Herbie Farnworth
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Penrith Panthers v Brisbane Broncos