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North QLD Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights Tips - Cowboys win it in a gun fight
- North QLD Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights expert predictions for Saturday’s NRL Elimination Final
- Kick off is at 7:50 PM at QCB Stadium
- High-scoring match anticipated with game total possibly exceeding 60 points.
- Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
NRL Finals 2024 Super Saturday Preview and Tips
North QLD Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights, 2024 Elimination Final - Expert Prediction
North Queensland will walk away with the win in Townsville with the Newcastle Knights bowing out in week 1 of the finals in what is setting up to be a highly entertaining match between two attacking forces.
- North QLD Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights, 2024 Elimination Final - Expert Prediction
- Head to Head
- North QLD Cowboys Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- North QLD Cowboys Team News
- North QLD Cowboys Team List
- Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends
- Newcastle Knights Team News
- Newcastle Knights Team List
- North QLD Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights 2024 NRL Elimination Final FAQ’s
The trends point towards a North Queensland victory, however, the 6.5-point margin is a little uncertain for me to take because of the unpredictability of the North Queensland defence. The models point to a similar margin but this game could be a grind and a slim victory just as the past two 1 and 2 point wins by the Cowboys in their most recent matches against the Knights. Alternatively, I can also see North Queensland putting the foot down so I am taking the comfort of a money line win.
Both these teams can light up the scoreboard and either way the result goes there is a high possibility of a shootout. With the game total being 43.5 this one can be closer to 60 with the recent attacking stats of both clubs.
The best value pick in the tryscoring department has to be the league’s leading point scorer Val Holmes.
- North Queensland have won 4 of their past 5 games at QCB Stadium.
- North Queensland have won the past 8 games against Newcastle in Townsville, dating back to round 2, 2015.
- North Queensland have won 4 of their past 5 matches against Newcastle.
- The Cowboys and Knights have a combined attacking points average of 65 in their past 5 games.
- Valentine Holmes has scored 6 tries in his past 5 games.
Head to Head
North Queensland have won the past 3 matches against Newcastle, including a 21-20 golden point victory back in round 2 this season, erasing a 10-point lead in the final 20 minutes with Chad Townsend kicking the field goal 1 minute into the extra period.
The Cowboys have won 5 of the past 8 games against the Knights since 2019.
North QLD Cowboys Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
2024 Betting Trends
| $10 ML | Over/Under | 1-12 | 13+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| 45.8 | 16-8 | 7-5 | 8-4 |
Since Magic Round in the middle of May the Cowboys won 11 of 14 games making them one of the most in-form teams heading into the Finals, also losing just one of their final 7 matches.
The question mark over the Cowboys is their defence which is often bang or bust. Taking their past 5 games for example, their opposition scored 30+ points in 3 of those matches while the other two they conceded just one try in each.
There are no uncertainties around their attack which has averaged 38 points per game in their past 5 matches and has averaged the third most points of any team this season with 27.4 per game.
Kyle Feldt is having a huge final season for the Cowboys leading the team with 22 tries (2nd in NRL) and leading the league with 30 linebreaks this season. On the other side of the field the combo of Murray Taulagi and Valentine Holmes do the damage with Scott Drinkwater causing problems for their opposition on both sides of the field.
North QLD Cowboys Team News
Jordan McLean returns after missing last week with a hamstring injury with Sam McIntyre moving back to the bench and Harrison Edwards to the reserves.
North QLD Cowboys Team List
1. Scott Drinkwater
2. Kyle Feldt
3. Valentine Holmes
4. Villiami Vailea
5. Murray Taulagi
6. Tom Dearden
7. Jake Clifford
8. Jordan McLean
9. Reece Robson
10. Jason Taumalolo
11. Heilum Luki
12. Jeremiah Nanai
13. Reuben Cotter
Interchange
14. Sam McIntyre
15. Harrison Edwards
16. Kulikefu Finefeuiaki
17. Griffin Neame
Reserves
18. Jaxon Purdue
19. Chad Towsend
20. Thomas Mikaele
21. Marly Bitungane
22. Tom Chester
Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
2024 Betting Trends
| $10 ML | Over/Under | 1-12 | 13+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| -26.4 | 9-15 | 8-7 | 4-5 |
The Newcastle Knights resurrected their season in the final 5 rounds, winning 4 matches and qualifying for the finals in the final game on the NRL calendar with a 14-6 win over the Dolphins.
The Knights attack has begun to find its spark with 3 30+ point games in the final 5 matches but more impressively it has been their ability to keep their opponents out of their in-goal, conceding no more than 19 points during the same span and an average of just 14.9 opposition points per game.
Kalyn Ponga’s form has spiked with the Knights success with the Newcastle fullback tallying 5 linebreaks 5 try assists 2 tries and 37 tackle breaks in his past 5 matches.
Newcastle Knights Team News
Adam O’Brien has named an unchangde team that secured a finals berth last week against the Dolphins.
Newcastle Knights Team List
1. Kalyn Ponga
2. Fletcher Sharpe
3. Dane Gagai
4. Bradman Best
5. Greg Marzhew
6. Jack Cogger
7. Phoenix Crossland
8. Daniel Saifiti
9. Jayden Brailey
10. Leo Thompson
11. Tyson Frizell
12. Dylan Lucas
13. Adam Elliott
Interchange
14. Tyson Gamble
15. Mat Croker
16. Jack Hetherington
17. Brodie Jones
Reserves
18. Thomas Cant
19. Will Pryce
20. Jackson Hastings
21. Kyle McCarthy
22. Kai Pearce-Paul
North QLD Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights 2024 NRL Elimination Final FAQ’s
How to watch North QLD Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights 2024 NRL Elimination Final?
You can watch the North QLD Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights 2024 NRL Elimination Final via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to North QLD Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights 2024 NRL Elimination Final ?
To buy tickets to the North QLD Cowboys vs Newcastle Knights 2024 NRL Elimination Final check the NRL website or the official North QLD Cowboys site.
Verdict
The Cowboys will win this match by a little or a lot so the moneyline is the pick in a game that goes over the total.
Val Holmes leads the league in points and is on a tryscoring run and is the best value ATS.
Val Holmes leads the league in points and is on a tryscoring run and is the best value ATS.
North Queensland
Money Line
$1.44 - 4 Units
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Over 43.5
Game Total
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Valentine Holmes
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$2.53 - 1 Unit
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Valentine Holmes
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$14.00 - 1 Unit
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