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Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs Tips - Knights to win but Dogs do enough to cover in low scoring affair

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Last updated: 29 May 2024
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Ryan Tucker 29 May 2024
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  • Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs expert predictions for Friday’s Round 13 NRL game
  • Kick off is at 8:00 PM at McDonald Jones Stadium
  • Newcastle predicted to win in a low-scoring defensive battle.
  • Best value bet is on Canterbury to cover the line.
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David Armstrong
David Armstrong of the Knights has scored 5 tries in 4 games so far this season (Photo by Chris Hyde/Chris Hyde)

Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs, Round 13 2024 - Expert Prediction


Newcastle are predicted to level the season series 1-1 with a tough win in a low scoring game at McDonald Jones Stadium this Friday night. With low scores predicted the value bet is on Canterbury to cover the line.
  • Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs, Round 13 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Newcastle Knights Team News
  • Newcastle Knights Team List
  • Canterbury Bulldogs Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Canterbury Bulldogs Team News
  • Canterbury Bulldogs Team List
  • Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2024 Round 13 FAQ’s

The Knights are a tough opponent in Newcastle and are one of the highest performing teams at home over the past few seasons. The Bulldogs on the other hand have won only 5 of 30 games on the road in the past 3 years and are on a 10 game losing streak as the away team. 

Canterbury will also be without their inspirational leader Stephen Crichton who is away on Origin duty together with Matt Burton. Burton’s kicking game will be sorely missed for a team that is 2nd in the NRL in average Kick Metres per game (620m), often getting them out of trouble in their own end. 

Both teams are top 5 in Opposition Points pointing to a defensive battle and low scoring. Newcastle not being affected by Origin will have the best opportunity to convert their limited chances and will grind out a win in this one. With the line at 5.5 at most places the best value is to take the Dogs to cover.

  • Newcastle have won 13 of 18 games played at McDonald Jones since the beginning of the 2023 season.
  • The Bulldogs concede only 17.4 pts per game - 2nd in the league, the Knights are 5th with 19 opposition points per game.
  • Canterbury concede 61% of opposition tries down their right side, Newcastle score 42% of their tries down their left side.
  • David Armstrong has scored 5 tries in 4 games played this season.

Head to Head 


These teams have met on 10 occasions dating back to the start of the 2019 season. Newcastle have won 6 of those games but it is the Bulldogs who have the most recent success taking the victory back in round 7 this year 36-12, the biggest winning margin from the Bulldogs during the period.

The Knights have won 5 of the last 7 games with an average Winning Margin of 26.8 pts. The 1-12 and 13+ are even at 5-5 over the last 10 but the last 4 in a row have all been 13+ margins.

The Under has hit in the Game Total in 7 of 10 games whilst the ATS numbers are 5-5. 

Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
4-13-22-3

2024 Betting Trends
$10 ML
Over/Under
1-12
13+
$6.84-75-31-2

Newcastle are coming off their first bye of the season and had won 4 in a row prior to the week off. Their last loss was in Round 7 against the Bulldogs 36-12.

In the Knights round 11 game against the Titans they were again forced to come from behind being down 24-10 at the half. The Newcastle defence stepped up in the second stanza not allowing the Titans another score and missing only 9 tackles in the whole half.

Newcastle Knights Team News


The Knights are unaffected by Origin but a raft of injuries to their backline sees Krystian Mapapalangi return to the NRL in the centres with Bradman Best the latest casualty. 

Daniel Saifiti returns to the lineup off the bench which sees Jack Hetherington revert to the reserves. 

Newcastle Knights Team List


1. David Armstrong
2. Enari Tuala
3. Dane Gagai
4. Krystian Mapapalangi
5. Greg Marzhew
6. Jack Cogger
7. Jackson Hastings
8. Jacob Saifiti
9. Jayden Brailey
10. Leo Thompson
11. Kai Pearce-Paul
12. Dylan Lucas
13. Adam Elliott

Interchange
14. Phoenix Crossland
15. Tyson Frizell
16. Daniel Saifiti
17. Brodie Jones

Reserves
18. Thomas Cant
19. Mat Croker
20. Will Pryce
21. Jack Hetherington
22. Fletcher Sharpe


Canterbury Bulldogs Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
3-24-13-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-1213+
-$4.74-72-43-2

The Doggies broke a two game losing streak with a dominant win over St George last weekend 44-12. The Dragons led for the majority of the game but once the Bulldogs got on a roll there was no stopping them as they ran in 7 unanswered tries in 32 minutes in the second half. 

Canterbury owned 93% of the Territory in the 2nd half as well as 69% of Possession. They were tackled in the Dragons 20m 24 times whilst their opposition tallied exactly 0 tackles in the Bulldogs red zone, a testament to their defensive domination.

Canterbury Bulldogs Team News


Bulldogs captain Stephen Crichton and half Matt Burton are away on Origin duty. Blake Wilson comes onto the wing with Jacob Kiraz covering at centre for Crichton. Drew Hutchison returns to the starting team after a few weeks on the outer. 

Barnstorming second rower Viliame Kikau will miss up to a month following surgery on a fractured finger. Jacob Preston takes his spot in the starting team with Poasa Faamausili coming onto the bench. Kurt Mann returns after being a withdrawal from last week’s win, Josh Curran goes back to the interchange.

Canterbury Bulldogs Team List


1. Connor Tracey
2. Blake Wilson
3. Bronson Xerri
4. Jacob Kiraz
5. Josh Addo-Carr
6. Drew Hutchison
7. Toby Sexton
8. Max King
9. Reed Mahoney
10. Sam Hughes
11. Jacob Preston
12. Jaeman Salmon
13. Kurt Mann

Interchange
14. Bailey Hayward
15. Josh Curran
16. Kurtis Morrin
17. Poasa Faamausili

Reserves
19. Lipoi Hopoi
20. Blake Taaffe
21. Jake Turpin
22. Harry Hayes
23. Jeral Skelton

Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2024 Round 13 FAQ’s

How to watch Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2024 Round 13?

You can watch the Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2024 Round 13 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2024 Round 13?

To buy tickets to the Newcastle Knights vs Canterbury Bulldogs NRL 2024 Round 13 game check the NRL website or the official Newcastle Knights site.

Verdict

Our predictive model has this game finishing around the 16-14 mark to the Knights. Take into account the Knights poor scoring form and the Dogs missing the boot of Burton and this game could easily stay under 20 points total! 

Anything over a try is value for the Underdog so even though I think the Knights win I am backing the Dogs to cover. David Armstrong is priced well to cross and has the best opportunity chiming in on both sides of the play. 
Best Bet1: Canterbury +5.5 Line @9/10 at Betr - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Under 44.5 Game Total @5/6 at Neds - 2 Units
Best Bet3: David Armstrong Anytime Tryscorer @6/4 at bet365 Australia - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: David Armstrong First Tryscorer @10/1 at dabble - 1 Unit
Canterbury +5.5
Line
@9/10 - 2 Units
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Game Total
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David Armstrong
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Newcastle Knights v Canterbury Bulldogs