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New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers Tips - Close finish expected with host of stars missing

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Last updated: 16 May 2024
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Ryan Tucker 16 May 2024
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  • New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 11 NRL game
  • Kick off is at 1:50 PM at Suncorp Stadium
  • Penrith Panthers favored to win in a low-scoring game.
  • Historical trends show Penrith's dominance and better current form.
  • Game total expected to go under, with a close winning margin (1-12 points).
Expired
Brian To'o
Brian To'o is predicted to score against the Warriors (Photo by Bradley Kanaris/Getty Images)

New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers, Round 11 2024 - Expert Prediction


The historical trends will keep true in this game with Penrith tipped to win in a low scoring game. 
  • New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers, Round 11 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • New Zealand Warriors Team List
  • Penrith Panthers Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Penrith Panthers Team News
  • Penrith Panthers Team List
  • New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2024 Round 11 FAQ’s

With few points on offer the Game Total will also go Under with the Winning Margin expected to be within 1-12 points. 

Neither team has been especially great at scoring this year and even though New Zealands defence has been sub-par they have shown signs of the lockdown D in some of their games. My expectation is that they can summon at least a part of that energy for this big showdown at Magic Round.

  • The Warriors have averaged 9.5 points against the Panthers in their last 8 games
  • Penrith are averaging only 22.8 points this season
  • 7 of the last 8 games played between these teams has gone Under the Game Total
  • Brian To’o has scored 7 tries in his previous 5 games against New Zealand


Head to Head 


Penrith have absolutely dominated the Head to Head between these teams since the start of the 2019 season. They have played 8 regular season games 7 of which have been won by the Panthers. The most recent game played was the first week of finals last year and was also won by Penrith 32-6. 

The Warriors have averaged only 9.5 points in their 8 losses in a row, the lowest against any opponent over that time. 

7 of 9 games played have gone Under the Game Total with an average Winning Margin of 19.2 points.

New Zealand Warriors Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
0-4-10-53-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-1213+
-$55.64-62-41-2

The Warriors haven’t won in their last 5 outings and have a Points Differential of -47 points across that span. A team that was top of the Defensive rankings for the majority of 2023 have completely fallen off a cliff.

New Zealand were never in the game against the Roosters last weekend, despite winning the second half 18-16 the damage was already done early with the Roosters running out winners 38-18. The Warriors allowed their opponents to score 7 tries on only 19 Tackles Inside 20m. 

New Zealand Warriors Team News

A couple of big changes for the Warriors due to injury. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad moves to five-eighth and Te Maire Martin to halfback with Shaun Johnson ruled out. Ali Leiataua lines up at centre in place of Rocco Berry with Marcelo Montoya returning to the top side.

Freddy Lussick is in concussion protocol so Jacob Laban has been added to the interchange.

New Zealand Warriors Team List


1. Taine Tuaupiki
2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
3. Ali Leiataua
4. Adam Pompey
5. Marcelo Montoya
6. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
7. Te Maire Martin
8. Addin Fonua-Blake
9. Wayde Egan
10. Bunty Afoa
11. Jackson Ford
12. Mitch Barnett
13. Tohu Harris

Interchange
14. Dylan Walker
15. Tom Ale
16. Jazz Tevaga
17. Jacob Laban

Reserves
18. Zyon Maiu'u
20. Edward Kosi
21. Paul Roache
​​​​​​​22. Tanner Stowers-Smith
23. Ben Farr


Penrith Panthers Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
4-12-33-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-1213+
$10.835-44-13-1

Penrith managed to squeeze out a win over the Bulldogs last weekend but lost their halfback in the process. The Panthers have had trouble putting on points this season without Cleary in the team averaging 22.9 points on the season 8th in the league. 

Against the Bulldogs last weekend Penrith made only 3 Linebreaks, considerably less than their average of 5.1 on the season.

Penrith Panthers Team News


Nathan Cleary was subbed out of the game last weekend and will now spend a long stint on the sidelines with a hammy. Brad Schneider who has filled in for Cleary this year also suffered an injury over the weekend in NSW Cup which sees Jack Cole named at five-eighth and Jarome Luai at halfback.

Izack Tago is back in the starting line up with Paul Alamoti becoming 18th man. Daine Laurie is the utility on the bench together with Matt Eisenhuth who replaces Liam Henry.

Penrith Panthers Team List


1. Dylan Edwards
2. Sunia Turuva
3. Izack Tago
4. Taylan May
5. Brian To'o
6. Jack Cole
7. Jarome Luai
8. Moses Leota
9. Mitch Kenny
10. James Fisher-Harris
11. Luke Garner
12. Liam Martin
13. Isaah Yeo

Interchange
14. Daine Laurie
15. Lindsay Smith
16. Matt Eisenhuth
17. Mavrik Geyer

Reserves
18. Paul Alamoti
19. Preston Riki
20. Tyrone Peachey
21. Soni Luke
​​​​​​​22. Scott Sorensen

New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2024 Round 11 FAQ’s

How to watch New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2024 Round 11?

You can watch the New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2024 Round 11 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2024 Round 11?

To buy tickets to the New Zealand Warriors vs Penrith Panthers NRL 2024 Round 11 game check the NRL website or the official New Zealand Warriors site.

Verdict

Penrith haven't been great at scoring without Cleary and now with Schneider out aswell it is hard to see this being a blowout game. A Penrith win with a close margin is the best value play in this one. To'o has the best tryscoring record in this matchup so we are backing him in for a 4 pointer here!
Best Bet1: Panthers 1-12 Winning Margin @21/10 at bet365 Australia - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 41.5 Game Total @9/10 at Neds - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Brian To'o Anytime Tryscorer @7/8 at bet365 Australia - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Brian To'o First Tryscorer @7/1 at TAB - 1 Unit
Panthers 1-12
Winning Margin
@21/10 - 3 Units
Referral Code BESTBETS
Great odds on Australian racing

Our bet365.com.au referral code is BESTBETS. bet365 does not offer bonus codes in Australia and this referral code does not grant access to offers but can be used during registration. 18+ only. T&Cs apply. Imagine what you could be buying instead.Call Gambler's Help; National Gambling Helpline: 1800 858 858 or visit www.gamblinghelponline.org.au 18+

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Under 41.5
Game Total
@9/10 - 2 Units
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Brian To'o
Anytime Tryscorer
@7/8 - 1 Unit
Referral Code BESTBETS
Great odds on Australian racing

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Brian To'o
First Tryscorer
@7/1 - 1 Unit
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Betting Slip | 19 May 2024

New Zealand Warriors v Penrith Panthers