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New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights Tips - Big task ahead of the Warriors in NRL Semi Final

gary-emmerson
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Last updated: 15 Sep 2023
Gary Emmerson 15 Sep 2023
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  • New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights predictions for Saturday’s NRL game
  • Newcastle have won their last 10 games
  • Can the Warriors slow down the Knights?
  • Preview, stats, team news & more
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Newcastle Knights, New Zealand Warriors, NRL
A real wrestle expected in this elimination final between the Warriors and the Knights. (Getty Images)

New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights Tips


The Warriors will host an NRL Finals match for the first time since 2008 when the Newcastle Knights travel across the Tasman for their do-or-die elimination game.
  • New Zealand Warriors vs Newcastle Knights Tips
  • Head to Head 
  • New Zealand Warriors Form
  • New Zealand Warriors Team News
  • New Zealand Warriors Team List
  • Newcastle Knights Form
  • Newcastle Knights Team News
  • Newcastle Knights Team List

Most books have the Warriors as 1.55 favourites for the Semi-Final, giving the Knights a 5.5-point head start. Considering that Newcastle are the in-form team of the competition with 10 straight victories and the true fitness of Warriors leader Shaun Johnson is unknown, I think this is a little steep, to be honest. 

The Warriors are a very tight defensive unit when playing in New Zealand and this should slow the Knights down a little, who have been electric with the ball over the second half of the season. However, during their winning run, Newcastle has averaged 34 points in attack and have conceded an average of just 13 points per game. 

This game is going to be closer than the bookies project and It wouldn’t be right to back the Knights to score under 3 tries considering how hot they are right now. The result can go either way here, so I like either team 1-10 as well as the Knights to score over 17.5 points. 

The Warriors have been a little weaker on the left side of their defensive line in 2023 and with Dom Young scoring 5 tries in his last 3 games, I’m all over the Brit to cross the line at GoMedia Stadium on Saturday.

  • The last 5 games between New Zealand and Newcastle have been decided by 10 points or less. 
  • Newcastle have scored 26 points or more in their last 10 games.
  • Newcastle have averaged 33 points per game in attack in their last 5 matches.
  • Warriors concede 41% of their tries down their left side.

Head to Head 


Both teams got a victory against each other in 2023, in two close matches that were decided by 10 points or less.

Prior to their two games this season it was Newcastle that got the better of New Zealand winning five of their last seven games against each other.

New Zealand Warriors Form


The Warriors took on minor premiers the Penrith Panthers, without their fearless leader Shaun Johnson in the first week of the finals. 

It did not go so well to say the least, losing to the reigning champions 32-6 in a Nathan Cleary masterclass.

The Warriors won seven of nine games at Go Media Stadium in 2023, including their last four straight. 

New Zealand Warriors Team News


Halback Shaun Johnson has been named to play in the elimination final, however, he is under a massive injury cloud. 

Johnson did not train with the team on Wednesday and trained alone on Thursday in his fight to be fit for the match.

New Zealand Warriors Team List


1. Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad
2. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak
3. Rocco Berry
4. Adam Pompey
5. Marcelo Montoya
6. Te Maire Martin
7. Shaun Johnson
8. Addin Fonua-Blake
9. Wayde Egan
10. Mitch Barnett
11. Jackson Ford
12. Marata Niukore
13. Tohu Harris

Interchange

14. Dylan Walker
15. Jazz Tevaga
16. Bayley Sironen
17. Josh Curran

Reserves

18. Freddy Lussick
20. Taine Tuaupiki
21. Bunty Afoa
22. Tom Ale
23. Edward Kosi

Newcastle Knights Form


With their extra-time victory over the Raiders in week one of the NRL Finals, the Newcastle Knights have now won their last 10 games in a row.

The match against the Raiders may not have gone as many thought, with the Raiders dominating the territory early and keeping the Knights on the back foot by forcing them to work the ball out of their own end repeatedly. 

However, Newcastle took advantage of their chances scoring 30 points in the game with just 11 tackles inside their opposition’s 20 metres. 

Newcastle Knights Team News


Jackson Hastings and Lachlan Fitzgibbon will miss the elimination final in New Zealand after picking up injuries last weekend against the Raiders. 

Adam Clune has been named at halfback, while Dylan Lucas has been named in the second row.

Newcastle Knights Team List


1. Kalyn Ponga
2. Dominic Young
3. Dane Gagai
4. Bradman Best
5. Greg Marzhew
6. Tyson Gamble
7. Adam Clune
8. Jacob Saifiti
9. Phoenix Crossland
10. Leo Thompson
11. Tyson Frizell
12. Dylan Lucas
13. Adam Elliott

Interchange

14. Kurt Mann
15. Daniel Saifiti
16. Jack Hetherington 
17. Mat Croker

Reserves

18. Brodie Jones
19. Enari Tuala
20. Fa'amanu Brown
21. Lachlan Miller
​​​​​​​22. Jack Johns

Verdict

This game is going to be a cracker and is going to be a tough one to break. I am on either team 1-10 and am sure that the Knights will score at least 17.5 points. Dominic Young is the pick of the try scorers going up against the weaker side of the Warriors defensive line.
Best Bet: Either Team Win Margin 1-10 @10/11 at Neds - 3 Units
Value Bet: Newcastle Over 17.5 Team Total @19/25 at Unibet Australia - 3 Units
Anytime Tryscorer Tip: Dom Young Anytime Tryscorer @23/20 at dabble - 1 Unit
First Tryscorer Tip: Dom Young First Tryscorer @9/1 at Boombet - 1 Unit
Either Team Win
Margin 1-10
@10/11 - 3 Units
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Dom Young
Anytime Tryscorer
@23/20 - 1 Unit
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New Zealand Warriors v Newcastle Knights