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Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters Tips - Storm to Thunder past Roosters and book spot in Grand Final
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- Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters expert predictions for Friday’s Round Preliminary Final NRL game
- Kick off is at 7:50 PM at AAMI Park
- Experts predict a comfortable win for Melbourne Storm over Sydney Roosters.
- Storm have won 11 of the last 14 games against Roosters.
- Melbourne's defense and strong halves duo are key to their expected victory.
Ryan goes against his own team in this preview!
Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters, Preliminary Final 2024 - Expert Prediction
Recent form and trends dictate that Melbourne will win this game comfortably and lock in the first spot in the 2024 NRL Grand Final.
The Storm have an extremely good record against the Roosters having won 11 of the last 14 games including the last 5 in a row. Their games are generally low scoring with defence often the focal point of both teams. With Melbourne ranking 3rd and the Roosters 5th in Scoring Defence this season it is easy to see that this game will be another tough battle with neither side wanting to give an inch to the other.
Where this game will be won is Melbourne’s ability to shut down the long runs of the Roosters that got them into position to score last week against Manly as well as the creativity of the halves. Sandon Smith has played well for the Roosters but the more established duo of Cam Munster and Jahrome Hughes will be able to rely on their experience to get points on the board.
Once Melbourne get out in front the flood gates could open. I am taking the 13+ with the Roosters to not score a high team total. Xavier Coates has scored 8 tries in his last 4 games against the Roosters.
- Since 2019, 4 of the 7 Storm victories in finals have been by 13+ and their average winning margin this season is 14.75pts.
- The Roosters are 4-8 against Top 8 teams this season averaging just 16.5 points in those 8 losses.
- Melbourne have lost only 3 games in two years at AAMI Park.
- The Roosters concede 46% of tries down their right edge in 2024.
Head to Head
Melbourne hold a dominant 11-3 record in their head to head matchups since the beginning of the 2019 season. Of the 14 games, 12 have been regular season matchups with a 10-2 record. The remaining two have been finals games with a 1-1 record in the same period. The Storm have won 5 games in a row with Sydney’s last victory coming at AAMI Park in August 2022.
The Game Total has gone Under in the last 3 games straight as well as 10 of the 14 played in the period. The Winning Margin has been 13+ in 3 of the last 5 games played and in 6 of the last 10.
Melbourne Storm Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 4-1 | 5-0 | 5-0 |
2024 Betting Trends
| $10 ML | Over/Under | 1-12 | 13+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| $55.82 | 14-11 | 12-5 | 8-0 |
The Storm come into this game following a week off after winning their Qualifying Final against Cronulla by a comfortable 37-10 scoreline. The teams shared possession equally in the first half with scores at 12-4 by the main break. The momentum shifted dramatically in the second half as Melbourne kicked up not only 1 gear but probably 2 or 3. They had 70% of Possession coupled with 75% of Territory which was too overwhelming for the Sharks.
The Storm racked up 1869 Run Metres in the game while holding their opponent to 1045. They had 41 Tackles Inside 20m of the Sharks and committed only 2 errors in the game in a show of discipline that would even impress Bellyache.
On the defensive end they missed only 18 Tackles and kept Cronulla out of the red zone, having to only defend 10 Tackles on their own line.
Melbourne Storm Team News
The Storm name an unchanged side from their Qualifying Final win over the Sharks two weeks ago.
Sua Faalogo is named in the reserves.
Melbourne Storm Team List
1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
2. Will Warbrick
3. Jack Howarth
4. Nick Meaney
5. Xavier Coates
6. Cameron Munster
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
9. Harry Grant
10. Josh King
11. Shawn Blore
12. Eli Katoa
13. Trent Loiero
Interchange
14. Tyran Wishart
15. Christian Welch
16. Tui Kamikamica
17. Alec MacDonald
Reserves
18. Grant Anderson
19. Kane Bradley
20. Lazarus Vaalepu
21. Joe Chan
22. Sualauvi Faalogo
Sydney Roosters Form Analysis & Betting Trends
Recent Form
| Last 5 W/L | Last 5 ATS | Last 5 O/U |
|---|---|---|
| 3-2 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
2024 Betting Trends
| $10 ML | Over/Under | 1-12 | 13+ |
|---|---|---|---|
| $1.9 | 14-12 | 6-7 | 11-2 |
Sydney hit their straps last weekend against Manly putting up 40 points to take the Semi Final victory. The Roosters owned 56% of Possession and 58% Territory in the game completing 33/38 sets.
They restricted their opponents to only 1080 Run Metres and only 2 Linebreaks, a metric where Manly ranked 5th in the league with 5.3 per game. With the tough midfield defence they needed to only defend 10 tackles on their own line all game.
The Roosters played very much “downhill” against Manly and have done so against weaker opponents all season long. It has though been the tougher grind out games that have been the problem for the tri-colours having beaten very few top 8 teams all season long.
Sydney Roosters Team News
The Roosters are unchanged from the side that took the victory against Manly last weekend in the Semi Final. Victor Radley made a surprise comeback in the game and has now been named at lock with Naufahu Whyte named on the bench.
Sydney Roosters Team List
1. James Tedesco
2. Daniel Tupou
3. Joseph Suaalii
4. Joey Manu
5. Dom Young
6. Luke Keary
7. Sandon Smith
8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
9. Connor Watson
10. Lindsay Collins
11. Angus Crichton
12. Sitili Tupouniua
13. Victor Radley
Interchange
14. Spencer Leniu
15. Naufahu Whyte
16. Nat Butcher
17. Terrell May
Reserves
18. Zach Dockar-Clay
19. Siua Wong
20. Fetalaiga Pauga
21. Jake Elliott
22. Michael Jennings
Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2024 Preliminary Final FAQ’s
How to watch Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2024 Preliminary Final?
You can watch the Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2024 Preliminary Final game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.
How to buy tickets to Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2024 Preliminary Final?
To buy tickets to the Melbourne Storm vs Sydney Roosters NRL 2024 Preliminary Final game check the NRL website or the official Melbourne Storm site.
Verdict
Once Melbourne get out in front the flood gates could open. I am taking the 13+ with the Roosters to not score a high team total. Xavier Coates has scored 8 tries in his last 4 games against the Roosters.
Melbourne 13+
Winning Margin
$2.12 - 2 Units
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