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Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Tips - Melbourne hoodoo to continue for Broncos

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 02 Apr 2024
Jeremy Darke 02 Apr 2024
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  • Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos expert predictions for Thursday’s Round 5 NRL game
  • Kick off is at 8:00 PM at AAMI Park
  • Melbourne's advantage includes a week's rest, expertise of Craig Bellamy and surging form of Ryan Papenhuyzen.
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
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Ryan Papenhuyzen
Ryan Papenhuyzen looking slick in his return. (Getty Images)

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Tips


There is just so much history in this contest which cannot be ignored, but has the Melbourne dominance over Brisbane now been broken with the Broncos getting a 26-0 win against the Storm in the finals last season? I don’t think so.
  • Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Tips
  • Head to Head 
  • Melbourne Storm Form Analysis
  • Melbourne Storm Team News
  • Melbourne Storm Team List
  • Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis
  • Brisbane Broncos Team News
  • Brisbane Broncos Team List
  • Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2024 Round 5 FAQs

Melbourne had not lost to Brisbane since round 25, 2016 before their Preliminary Final defeat in 2024. and the further you look back the more W’s you see with the Broncos beating Melbourne now just five times since the 2007 season.

Brisbane did look really flash against the Cowboys on Friday night, but Melbourne in Melbourne and on a Thursday night is a whole other kettle of fish. 

The bookies have definitely taken all of the above into consideration when setting the odds and line with Melbourne 4.5-point favourites in most places, but you can find it at 3.5 if you shop around and that is what I am taking early before it shifts.

The Storm have had the week off to prepare for this one and you can expect that Craig Bellamy will have his boys up for the challenge to take on last year’s grand finalists, who embarrassed them in the Prelim. I expect that they would have had full-focus on stopping Brisbane’s attack and that is exactly how it will play out with the Broncos scoring less than three converted tries.

Ryan Papenhuyzen is working his way back to his best form and has been a real danger in the opening few games. The Storm fullback has a great record against Brisbane, even scoring 4 tries in his last game against the Broncos in 2023.

  • Melbourne won all 4 of their Thursday night games last season, including both against Brisbane 
  • Melbourne has won their last 14 regular season games against Brisbane, including their last 7 games at AAMI Park.
  • Brisbane have scored less than 18 points in 6 of their past 7 games at AAMI Park.
  • Ryan Papenhuyzen has scored 6 tries in 3 games against Brisbane in his career.

Head to Head 


Brisbane won the last meeting between these two clubs, a 26-0 defeat at Suncorp in the Preliminary Final last season. The last time Brisbane beat Melbourne was back in round 25, 2016.

Melbourne Storm Form Analysis


Melbourne come into this game off the bye and will be hoping that the extra week off has helped heal some small niggles in the squad which were part of the cause of their 14-12 loss to the Knights before the week off, when they were also missing Jahrome Hughes through suspension. 

The Storm started the season well with two tough victories against two top four teams from 2023, the Warriors (30-26) and Panthers.(8-0) and got it done without star five-eight Cameron Munster who has been out with a groin injury.

Melbourne Storm Team News


Melbournes halves are whole again with Cam Munster playing his first game of the season at five-eight, while Jahrome Hughes returns from suspension at halfback.

Christian Welch has returned from a concussion, however Joe Chan and Nelson Asofa-Solomona are still  out of the side.

Melbourne Storm Team List


1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
2. Will Warbrick
3. Reimis Smith
4. Nick Meaney
5. Xavier Coates
6. Cameron Munster
7. Jahrome Hughes
8. Tui Kamikamica
9. Harry Grant
10. Josh King
11. Shawn Blore
12. Eli Katoa
13. Trent Loiero

Interchange
14. Tyran Wishart
15. Christian Welch
16. Tepai Moeroa
17. Alec MacDonald

Reserves
18. Chris Lewis
19. Jack Howarth
20. Marion Seve
21. Jonah Pezet
22. Aaron Pene

Brisbane Broncos Form Analysis


Brisbane looked really sharp last Friday in their 38-12 wet weather victory over their QLD rivals the Cowboys. 

Adam Reynolds was absolutely superb, tormenting Scott Drinkwater at the back with towering, swirling bombs that would have been difficult to track even in the dry. 

Brisbane then capitalized on their chances and played controlled bad weather footy, not giving the Cowboys anything for free.

Despite their 2-2 start, the Broncos are looking like they will be contenders again this season once their draw lightens up a little.

Brisbane Broncos Team News


Benjamin Te Kura will debut off the bench with Xavier Willison dropping out of the 17. 

Brisbane Broncos Team List


1. Tristan Sailor
2. Jesse Arthars
3. Kotoni Staggs
4. Selwyn Cobbo
5. Deine Mariner
6. Ezra Mam
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Corey Jensen
9. Billy Walters
10. Fletcher Baker
11. Jaiyden Hunt
12. Jordan Riki
13. Patrick Carrigan

Interchange
14. Tyson Smoothy
15. Benjamin Te Kura
16. Kobe Hetherington
17. Corey Oates

Reserves
18. Martin Taupau
19. Jock Madden
20. Delouise Hoeter
21. Jordan Pereira
22. Blake Mozer

Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2024 Round 5 FAQs

How to watch Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2024 Round 5?

You can watch the Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2024 Round 5 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2024 Round 5?

To buy tickets to the Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos NRL 2024 Round 5 game check the NRL website or the official Melbourne Storm site.

Verdict

Melbourne will do the dirty on Brisbane again taking advantage of the week off to prepare for the attack. The Storm will cover by holding the Broncos under 18 points and Big Paps will cross for a meat pie.

Best Bet1: Melbourne -3.5 Handicap/Line @9/10 at Betr - 2 Units
Best Bet2: Brisbane Under 17.5 Team Total @7/8 at Neds - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Ryan Papenhuyzen Anytime Tryscorer @23/17 at dabble - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Ryan Papenhuyzen First Tryscorer @10/1 at dabble - 1 Unit
Melbourne -3.5
Handicap/Line
@9/10 - 2 Units
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Brisbane Under 17.5
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@10/1 - 1 Unit
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