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Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels Tips - Defence in focus in NRL Round 5

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 06 Apr 2024
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Jeremy Darke 06 Apr 2024
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  • Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 5 NRL game
  • Kick off is at 6:15 PM at GIO Stadium
  • Defence strategy will play a pivotal role in this nail-biting clash between Canberra Raiders and Parramatta Eels.
  • Preview, expert analysis, stats, team news & best bet
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Blaize Talagi
Blaize Talagi impressing in just his second game in the NRL. (Getty Images)

Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels Tips


A close battle is expected between the Raiders and the Eels in Canberra on Sunday, putting a close on round 5 of the NRL season. Both teams performed under par in round 4 and are looking to bounce back which is why the smart bet here is either team to win by a margin of 1-10.

Canberra blew a monstrous 18-0 lead against the Sharks last week and you can bet your bottom dollar that Ricky Stuart’s fiery response to that will be a hard week of training with a huge focus on playing on the defensive side of the ball. 

The Eels lacked creativity on Easter Monday against the Tigers, missing their halfback Mitch Moses close to the opposition line, failing to capitalize on their chances. Young star Blaize Talagi looked good and will be better off after his first game in the halves, but I do suspect that the Eels will have a similar problem again this week against what should be a stiffer Raiders defence.

The models have this game within a couple of points to the Raiders, however, after what we saw last week against the Sharks I can’t say that I have a lot of confidence. The Either Team 1-10 is more likely in my opinion and recent trends between these two clubs also agrees. With a focus on defence and smart footy from the Raiders this week and the uncertain attack from the Eels, I am also leaning towards the Under on the game total of 42.5.

On the tryscoring front, I like the look of Jordan Rapana against the Eels who have been giving up tries to opposing fullbacks this season so far.

  • 5 of the past 7 games between the Raiders and Eels has ended with a winning margin of 1-10.
  • The past 3 Eels games has ended with a winning margin of 1-10.
  • 5 of 8 games involving Canberra and Parramatta have hit the Under this season.
  • Parramatta have conceded a try to opposing fullbacks in their last 3 games.

Head to Head

 
The Raiders got the only win against the Eels in 2023, beating Parramatta 26-18 at GIO Stadium in round 11.

Parramatta have the edge in the head to head records, winning 5 of the pst 8 games against Canberra, including 2 of the last 3 games at GIO.

Canberra Raiders Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-23-11-3

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-1213+
5.81-30-12-1

Canberra gave up an 18-0 lead after 24 minutes of play to go down to the Sharks 36-22 with Ricky Stuart spitting chips, understandably. 

The Raiders simply capitulated, giving up 60 percent of the territory and opening up in defence, especially on their own line with 37 missed tackles in the game.

It was the Raiders second loss in as many weeks after going down to the Warriors 18-10 in round 3.

Canberra Raiders Team News


Ata Mariota comes into the starting side for Elliot Whitehead, while Simi Sasagi comes onto the bench for his first game in Raiders colours, filling in for the concussed Zak Hosking.

Canberra Raiders Team List


1. Jordan Rapana
2. James Schiller
3. Matt Timoko
4. Seb Kris
5. Xavier Savage
6. Ethan Strange
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papalii
9. Danny Levi
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Ata Mariota
13. Morgan Smithies

Interchange
14. Tom Starling
15. Corey Horsburgh
16. Simi Sasagi
17. Pasami Saulo

Reserves
18. Kaeo Weekes
19. Nick Cotric
20. Trey Mooney
21. Zac Woolford
​​​​​​​22. Emre Guler

Parramatta Eels Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-22-22-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-1213+
-8.72-21-21-0

It is safe to say that the Eels really missed their orchestrator Mitchell Moses last week against the Tigers, failing to convert on huge weight of possession in the first half and could not take advantage while playing against a 12-man Tigers team when Lachie Galvin was sin binned. 

The lack of attacking threat came back to bite them going down to Wests 16-17 after having 65 percent of the territory and 36 tackles in the Tigers redzone.

Parramatta Eels Team News


Bailey Simonsson comes in taking the place of Morgan Harper in the centres.

Kelma Tuilagi has been moved to the bench with Ryan Metterson named in the starting side. Brendan Hands drops out of the side, being replaced by Wiremu Greig.

Parramatta Eels Team List


1. Clint Gutherson
2. Maika Sivo 
3. Will Penisini
4. Bailey Simonsson
5. Sean Russell
6. Blaize Talagi
7. Dylan Brown
8. Reagan Campbell-Gillard
9. Joey Lussick
10. Junior Paulo
11. Shaun Lane
12. Ryan Matterson
13. J’maine Hopgood

Interchange
14. Luca Moretti
15. Wiremu Greig
16. Joe Ofahengaue
17. Brendan Hands

Reserves
18. Ofahiki Ogden
19. Daejarn Asi
20. Brendan Hands
21. Makahesi Makatoa
​​​​​​​22. Morgan Harper

Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2024 Round 5 FAQs

How to watch Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2024 Round 5?

You can watch the Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2024 Round 5 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2024 Round 5?

To buy tickets to the Canberra Raiders vs Parramatta Eels NRL 2024 Round 5 game check the NRL website or the official Canberra Raiders site.

Verdict

Defence is expected to be a big focus out of the Canberra camp this week and the instability in the halves for the Eels has this game hitting the Under with either team winning by a margin of 1-10.
 
The Eels have allowed opposing fullbacks to cross their line this season so Jordan Rapana is the ATS pick.

Best Bet1: Either team Winning Margin 1-10 @17/20 at picklebet - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Under 42.5 Game Total @9/10 at Unibet Australia - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Jordan Rapana Anytime Tryscorer @2/1 at Neds - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Jordan Rapana First Tryscorer @14/1 at Topsport - 1 Unit
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Betting Slip | 07 Apr 2024

Canberra Raiders v Parramatta Eels