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Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights Tips - Poor scoring form expected to continue keeping scores low in Canberra

ryan-tucker
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Last updated: 04 Jul 2024
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Ryan Tucker 04 Jul 2024
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  • Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights expert predictions for Sunday’s Round 18 NRL game
  • Kick off is at 4:05 PM at GIO Stadium
  • Raiders make it 2 from 2 against Knights this season.
  • Game Total Under is the main prediction due to recent scoring difficulties.
Ryan delivers his tips for Sunday's NRL games.

Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights, Round 18 2024 - Expert Prediction


The final game of Round 18 is expected to go down to the wire with Canberra expected to make it two from two against the Knights this year.
  • Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights, Round 18 2024 - Expert Prediction
  • Head to Head 
  • Canberra Raiders Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Canberra Raiders Team News
  • Canberra Raiders Team List
  • Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends
  • Newcastle Knights Team News
  • Newcastle Knights Team List
  • Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2024 Round 18 FAQ’s

The Knights defence over their past 5 games hasn’t been great, allowing 28.8 points to their opponents contributing to the 3 losses in the period. In the 10 games prior Newcastle conceded only 18.5 points per game so the defence is there, somewhere in the back of their minds.

Canberra on the other hand are having trouble scoring, averaging only 17.6 points in their last 5 outings with only 1 win through that period. Coach Ricky Stuart has been playing with his lineups trying to find a combination that will bear fruit. 

Considering the recent numbers and season averages of both teams the main play here is the Game Total Under, neither team are good at scoring and with the high number set the chances of going Under are much higher. 

  • Only 3 of Newcastle's 15 games this season have gone Over 48.5 points
  • Canberra have covered in only 1 of their last 5 games at home.
  • These two teams are ranked 15th and 16th in Linebreaks in 2024
  • Bradman Best has scored at least 1 try in 3 of his last 4 games

Head to Head 


These two teams have met 9 times in regular season games since the beginning of the 2019 season. Newcastle hold a 5-4 advantage in the head to head also winning the lone Finals matchup played last year in a Golden Point thriller. 

The Round 1 clash saw Canberra emerge victorious with a 28-12 win at McDonald Jones stadium.

In the regular season matchups, the last three games and 6 of 9 total have gone Under the Game Total often by more than a try. 

The last two games played have finished with Winning Margins of 13+ with 6 of the previous 7 games all finishing between 1-12.

Canberra Raiders Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
1-42-34-1

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-1213+
$129-64-23-6

Canberra weren’t given much hope of making it a game down in Melbourne last weekend but they managed to keep the score respectable. They were absolutely dominated in the 1st half giving their opponent 63% Possession, 72% Territory while having 36 Tackles Inside 20m compared to only 3 of their own in Melbourne’s end. 

Conceding only 1 try through that barrage should give the team something to build on but it is their own scoring which is lacking right now averaging only 17.6 points across their last 5 games.

Canberra Raiders Team News


Some more shuffling of the cards for the Raiders with Adam Cook now named at halfback. Kaeo Weekes is the fullback with Jordan Rapana moving to the wing. Seb Kris is 18th man after being left out late last week.

Jordan Martin was concussed in his debut and has been replaced in this one by Simi Sasagi.

Canberra Raiders Team List


1. Kaeo Weekes 
2. Jordan Rapana
3. Matt Timoko
4. Albert Hopoate
5. Xavier Savage
6. Ethan Strange
7. Adam Cook
8. Josh Papalii
9. Tom Starling
10. Joe Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Morgan Smithies

Interchange
14. Danny Levi
15. Ata Mariota
16. Trey Mooney
17. Simi Sasagi

Reserves
18. Sebastian Kris
19. Zac Woolford
20. Emre Guler
21. James Schiller
​​​​​​​22. Hohepa Puru


Newcastle Knights Form Analysis & Betting Trends


Recent Form
Last 5 W/LLast 5 ATSLast 5 O/U
2-33-23-2

2024 Betting Trends
$10 MLOver/Under1-1213+
-$12.26-96-51-3

A lot has been said around the return of Kalyn Ponga but based on the numbers the Knights have been a far better team without him on the park this season winning 5 of 8 games.

Last start against the Eels it was the backs that got the job done with Bradman Best and Greg Marzhew both scoring a double. Newcastle had 7 Linebreaks in the game to go with 1584 Run Metres and 32 Tackles in Opposition 20m. They did though commit 11 Errors and missed 32 Tackles allowing Parramatta to post 26 points.

Newcastle Knights Team News


A massive boost for the Knights for the run home with captain Kalyn Ponga returning to the side. He takes back his usual fullback position pushing Fletcher Sharpe to take up the utility role off the back of Phoenix Crossland’s failed HIA. Jayden Brailey is the new hooker.

Leo Thompson is again named to play after withdrawing late last week, Jacob Saifiti drops to the bench to accommodate the return. 

Newcastle Knights Team List


1. Kalyn Ponga
2. Enari Tuala
3. Dane Gagai
4. Bradman Best
5. Greg Marzhew
6. Will Pryce
7. Jackson Hastings
8. Daniel Saifiti
9. Jayden Brailey
10. Leo Thompson
11. Tyson Frizell
12. Kai Pearce-Paul
13. Adam Elliott

Interchange
14. Fletcher Sharpe
15. Jacob Saifiti
16. Brodie Jones
17. Dylan Lucas

Reserves
18. Mat Croker
19. Jack Hetherington 
20. Jack Cogger
21. Krystian Mapapalangi
​​​​​​​22. Thomas Cant

Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2024 Round 18 FAQ’s

How to watch Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2024 Round 18?

You can watch the Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2024 Round 18 game via Fox Sports or Kayo Sports. If you are watching from outside of Australia the WatchNRL app is the perfect solution.

How to buy tickets to Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2024 Round 18?

To buy tickets to the Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights NRL 2024 Round 18 game check the NRL website or the official Canberra Raiders site.

Verdict

The Game Total Under is the top tip in this one with Canberra having the better chance at covering the line. 
Best Bet1: Under 49.5 Game Total $1.94 at Neds - 3 Units
Best Bet2: Canberra +4.5 Line $1.87 at Neds - 2 Units
Best Bet3: Bradman Best Anytime Tryscorer $2.50 at bet365 Australia - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Bradman Best First Tryscorer $13.00 at Boombet - 1 Unit
Under 49.5
Game Total
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Line
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Betting Slip | 07 Jul 2024

Canberra Raiders v Newcastle Knights