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Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights Tips - Knights to slay the Raiders

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 28 Jul 2023
Jeremy Darke 28 Jul 2023
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  • Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights predictions for Saturday’s NRL game (15:00 AEST)
  • The Raiders have won all 11 games by 10 points or less
  • Can the Knights upset the Raiders?
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newcastle knights
Newcastle Knights (Getty Images)

Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights Tips


Saturday’s footy kicks off with the fifth place Canberra Raiders versus the 10th place Newcastle Knights, which may not sound so enticing. But hold on to your battle helmets because this could end up being one of the games of the round. 
  • Canberra Raiders vs Newcastle Knights Tips
  • Head to Head 
  • Canberra Raiders Form
  • Canberra Raiders Team News
  • Canberra Raiders Team List
  • Newcastle Knights Form
  • Newcastle Knights Team News
  • Newcastle Knights Team List

The Raiders have been finding ways to win this year, however, they run into a Knights team that surprised everyone with their victory over the Storm last week. 

Newcastle are on a three-game winning streak and our models are suggesting that it will be extended to four victories, so I am playing it a little safe and taking them with the three points head start as underdogs. 

The Knights have had no problems putting on points with Kalyn Ponga in ripe form setting up tries all over the park. The left side of the Raiders defence has more holes than a block of swiss cheese so expect Dominic Young to slide through for a try.

  • The Knights have won 4 of their last 6 against the Raiders.
  • Newcastle have scored over 26 points in each of their last 3 games.
  • Canberra have allowed over 20 points in each of their last 3 games.
  • The Raiders left side defence has allowed 8 tries in the last 2 games. 

Head to Head 


The Knights were victorious against the Raiders in Round 4, 24-14 at McDonald Jones Stadium. Both teams ran for over 2 000 metres which is a rarity in today’s game. 

The Knights lead the Linebreak count 7-3 and Tackle Breaks 45-24, which proved to be the difference.

The Knights also lead the head-to-head battle with the Raiders, winning four of the last seven matchups.

Canberra Raiders Form


Besides being beaten by the New Zealand Warriors twice in the last month and a half, the Raiders have been on a winning run of five wins from their last seven games and 10 wins from their last 13. 

The Raiders have been able to grind out wins this season, if that is coming from behind or holding on for victory. All of Canberra’s 11 victories have been by a margin of 10 points or less.

Canberra Raiders Team News


Ricky Stuart has named the same 17 that lost in golden point to the Warriors last week.

Canberra Raiders Team List


1. Sebastian Kris
2. Albert Hopoate
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Matthew Timoko
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Josh Papali'i
9. Zac Woolford
10. Joe Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Corey Horsburgh

Interchange

14. Tom Starling
15. Emre Guler
16. Pasami Saulo
17. Ata Mariota

Reserves

18. Nick Cotric
19. Matt Frawley
20. Trey Mooney
21. Ethan Strange
22. Utuloa Asomua

Newcastle Knights Form


Three weeks ago you would have said the Knights were no real chance of being a finals threat, but with three consecutive victories including last week's win against 4th place Melbourne they are still in with a shot.

The Knights goal line defence was immaculate against the Storm, facing 35 tackles inside their defensive 20 metres and allowing just three tries.

Newcastle Knights Team News


Daniel Saifiti will be replaced by brother Jacob in the starting 13, with Brodie Jones joining the Newcastle bench.

Newcastle Knights Team List


1. Kalyn Ponga
2. Dominic Young
3. Dane Gagai
4. Bradman Best
5. Greg Marzhew
6. Tyson Gamble
7. Jackson Hastings
8. Jacob Saifiti
9. Phoenix Crossland
10. Leo Thompson
11. Tyson Frizell
12. Lachlan Fitzgibbon
13. Adam Elliott

Interchange

14. Kurt Mann
15. Brodie Jones
16. Jack Hetherington
17. Mathew Croker

Reserves

18. Dylan Lucas
19. Enari Tuala
20. Simi Sasagi
21. Lachlan Miller
22. Jack Johns

Verdict

I've got to back the models here and take the Knights with a 3.5 start as underdogs. I like how Newcastle have been attacking recently and expect them to surpass the 20.5 point Team Total. 

Dom Young will be one of try scorers going against the weaker side of the Canberra defence.

Best Bet: Over 20.5 Knights Total Points @8/9 at Colossalbet - 3 Units
Value Bet: Knights +3.5 Handicap Line @9/10 at bet365 Australia - 2 Units
Anytime Tryscorer Tip: Dom Young Anytime Tryscorer @15/16 at picklebet - 2 Units
First Tryscorer Tip: Dom Young First Tryscorer @15/2 at bet365 Australia - 1 Unit
Over 20.5
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