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Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans Tips - Underdogs to record close win in Canberra

ryan-tucker
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Last updated: 30 Jun 2023
Ryan Tucker 30 Jun 2023
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  • Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans predictions for Saturday’s NRL game (15:00 AEST)
  • The Underdog has covered in 9 of the last 10 matches Canberra has played in
  • Can Canberra cover as favourites at home?
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raiders titans nrl
Gold Coast Titans and the Canberra Raiders (Getty Images)

Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans Tips


This game could be seen as a double win for the team who comes out on top. The Raiders sit at 6th on the ladder on 22 points with the Titans at 9th on 20. With a Titans win though they will leapfrog the Raiders and potentially push them out of the 8 on poor points differential. 
  • Canberra Raiders vs Gold Coast Titans Tips
  • Head to Head 
  • Canberra Raiders Form
  • Canberra Raiders Team News
  • Canberra Raiders Team List
  • Gold Coast Titans Form
  • Gold Coast Titans Team News
  • Gold Coast Titans Team List

Canberra are 3.5-point favourites which is roughly a home-ground advantage, though the Raiders have only covered two of seven games at home this year. I am jumping on the underdog here and backing the Titans to cover in the nation's capital. 

  • Canberra are 2-5 ATS at home this season - 15th in the league.
  • Canberra have conceded the 5th most amount of points over the last 5 rounds at an average of 28.2 pts/game
  • Underdogs of less than a try (1-3.5 points) have covered the spread at a rate of 50% in 2023
  • The previous two games between these teams have finished with margins of 12 or less points.
  • The Titans have scored 54% of their tries in 2023 down the left side where Canberra have conceded 40% of opposition tries.

Head to Head 


Canberra have won six of the last seven games against Gold Coast including both games played in 2022. 

The Titans only win during this period was in July of 2021 at GIO Stadium 44-6. 

Apart from a two-point margin in last year’s first meeting between these clubs, all games since 2019 have had winning margins of 12 or more points with an average of 20.8. 

Canberra Raiders Form


The Raiders secured their third win in four games beating the Roosters last week 20-18. It was, though, a tight finish with the Roosters scoring 12 points to two in the second half, almost completing a comeback.

Canberra are the only team in the top 8 with a negative points differential sitting currently at -69 points. 

Canberra Raiders Team News


Front rower Josh Papalii is out with a hamstring injury, Pasami Saulo moves into the starting team with Ata Mariota joining the bench. 

Canberra Raiders Team List


1. Sebastian Kris
2. Albert Hopoate
3. Jarrod Croker
4. Matthew Timoko
5. Jordan Rapana
6. Jack Wighton
7. Jamal Fogarty
8. Pasami Saulo
9. Zac Woolford
10. Joseph Tapine
11. Hudson Young
12. Elliott Whitehead
13. Corey Horsburgh

Interchange

14. Tom Starling
15. Emre Guler
16. Nick Cotric
17. Ata Mariota

Reserves

18. Brad Schneider
19. Danny Levi
20. Matt Frawley
21. Xavier Savage
22. Peter Hola

Gold Coast Titans Form


The Titans have had three games and two byes over the last five weeks of the competition and are now the first team to have completed all three byes. 

A big loss to the Rabbits in round 14 was cancelled out by a 28-12 win over the Tigers in round 15. 

Last weekend’s Queensland derby against the league-leading Broncos was a rough fight with the Titans coming out on top 18-12. 

Both teams missed in excess of 40 tackles but the dynamic Gold Coast ballplaying was the difference in the end.

Gold Coast Titans Team News


Tino Fa’asuamaleaui returns to the team after being rested following Origin 2. Jaimin Jolliffe moves to the bench.

Gold Coast Titans Team List


1. AJ Brimson
2. Alofiana Khan-Pereira
3. Brian Kelly
4. Aaron Schoupp
5. Phillip Sami
6. Kieran Foran
7. Tanah Boyd
8. Moeaki Fotuaika
9. Sam Verrills
10. Tino Fa’asuamaleaui
11. David Fifita
12. Joe Stimson
13. Isaac Liu

Interchange

14. Jayden Campbell
15. Erin Clark
16. Jaimin Jolliffe
17. Chris Randall

Reserves

18. Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui
19. Jojo Fifita
20. Kruise Leeming
21. Klese Haas
22. Jacob Alick

Verdict

Both teams have been up and down this year but the most recent form puts the Titans just a smidge ahead. 

Our model has the Raiders with a one point margin but with a home ground advantage that has in reality been non-existent for Canberra this year. I'm taking the Titans to cover and for the game to finish with a narrow scoreline.

Best Bet: Any Team by 1-12 Winning Margin @3/4 at Justbet - 3 Units
Value Bet: Titans +3.5 Handicap Line @32/33 at Topsport - 2 Units
Anytime Tryscorer Tip: Alofiana Khan-Pereira Anytime Tryscorer @11/12 at Topsport - 2 Units
First Tryscorer Tip: Alofiana Khan-Pereira First Tryscorer @8/1 at bet365 Australia - 1 Unit
Any Team by 1-12
Winning Margin
@3/4 - 3 Units
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Titans +3.5
Handicap Line
@32/33 - 2 Units
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Bet at Topsport
Alofiana Khan-Pereira
Anytime Tryscorer
@11/12 - 2 Units
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Bet at Topsport
Alofiana Khan-Pereira
First Tryscorer
@8/1 - 1 Unit
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Canberra Raiders v Gold Coast Titans