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Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm Tips - Broncos to break Storm's curse

jeremy-darke
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Last updated: 07 Sep 2023
Jeremy Darke 07 Sep 2023
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  • Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm predictions for Friday’s NRL game
  • Melbourne have won 14 straight against Brisbane
  • Will Melbourne continue their dominance over Brisbane?
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Brisbane Broncos, Adam Reynolds
Broncos halfback Adam Reynolds returns (Getty Images)

Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm Tips


The NRL Finals Series will kickoff at Suncorp Stadium when the second-placed Brisbane Broncos take on third-placed Melbourne Storm in a hoodoo match for the home team.
  • Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm Tips
  • Head to Head 
  • Brisbane Broncos Form
  • Brisbane Broncos Team News
  • Brisbane Broncos Team List
  • Melbourne Storm Form
  • Melbourne Storm Team News
  • Melbourne Storm Team List

I would think that Brisbane would have rather faced any other side in the eight (besides Penrith of course), instead of facing the Storm who have a 14-game win streak over the Broncos, including eight and 10-point victories in 2023. 

I have made the mistake of backing the Broncos in both their losses to the Storm this year, but how I see it is the third time's the charm and I will be taking Brisbane as moneyline winners. 

I also like the Broncos to score over 22.5 points, which is well below their last-5 average of 33 points in attack and even under their season average of 26.5 points. 

The battle between QLD wingers Selwyn Cobbo and Xavier Coates is tantalizing and I am going to back both number 5s to cross the line in a tryscoring multi.

  • 5 of Melbourne’s 8 losses have been away from home.
  • Brisbane have averaged 33.4 points in attack in their last 5 games.
  • Melbourne concede an average of 22 points when playing away from home
  • Selwyn Cobbo and Xavier Coates have scored 19 and 16 tries respectively in 2023.

Head to Head 


With last weekend’s 32-22 victory to the Storm over the Broncos, Melbourne have now won their last 14 games against Brisbane and the last 13 games against the Broncs at Suncorp.

Brisbane Broncos Form


Besides their loss last week, with half of their reserves playing, Brisbane are, in what some would say, the best form they have been in since 2006, when they last won the comp.

Brisbane are at full strength with all of their stars returning from rest or injury and will be in the form that saw them win seven in a row before the final round.

Brisbane Broncos Team News


Brisbane will see the return of halfback Adam Reynolds and Patrick Carrigan, who have been injured over the last couple of weeks.

Keenan Palasia has the confidence of Kevvie Walters and has been added to the 17.

Brisbane Broncos Team List


1. Reece Walsh
2. Jesse Arthars
3. Kotoni Staggs
4. Herbie Farnworth
5. Selwyn Cobbo
6. Ezra Mam
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Tom Flegler 
9. Billy Walters
10. Payne Haas
11. Kurt Capewell
12. Jordan Riki
13. Patrick Carrigan

Interchange

14. Tyson Smoothy
15. Brendan Piakura
16. Kobe Hetherington
17. Keenan Palasia

Reserves

18. Corey Oates
19. Martin Taupau
20. Corey Jensen
21. Jock Madden
22. Tristan Sailor

Melbourne Storm Form


Melbourne closed out the home-and-away season with four straight victories, including the win against Brisbane where both teams played their second-stringers. 

Five of Melbourne’s eight losses came away from home in 2023, however, their form at Suncorp against the Broncos is impeccable, winning 14 straight, so you can read into that statistic as much as you like.

Melbourne Storm Team News


Both Jahrome Hughes and Harry Grant have been named after being under an injury cloud leading up to the finals.

Ryan Papenhuyzen has been named on the interchange as the X-factor for Melbourne, if need be.

Melbourne Storm Team List


1. Nick Meaney
2. Will Warbrick
3. Marion Seve
4. Young Tonumaipea
5. Xavier Coates
6. Cameron Munster
7. Jahrome Hughes 
8. Tui Kamikamica
9. Harry Grant
10. Christian Welch
11. Trent Loiero
12. Eli Katoa
13. Josh King

Interchange

14. Bronson Garlick
15. Tom Eisenhuth
16. Nelson Asofa-Solomona
17. Ryan Papenhuyzen

Reserves

18. Tyran Wishart
19. Tariq Sims
20. Tepai Moeroa
21. Reimis Smith
22. Grant Anderson

Verdict

Brisbane will break the hoodoo against Melbourne and take victory in the first week of the finals. The Broncos will score over 22.5 points with Selwyn Cobbo crossing the line. Xavier Coates will thrive in his battle against his fellow QLD winger and will cross the line also, completing the tryscoring multi.

Best Bet: Brisbane Broncos Moneyline @8/13 at Topsport - 4 Units
Best Bet: Brisbane Over 22.5 Team Total @10/11 at Boombet - 3 Units
Tryscoring Tips: Cobbo + Coates Tryscoring Multi @4/1 at bet365 Australia - 1 Unit
Tryscoring Tips: Selwyn Cobbo First Tryscorer @17/2 at dabble - 1 Unit
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Brisbane Broncos v Melbourne Storm