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Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm Tips - Broncos to prove simply the best

Last updated: 30 Aug 2023
Jeremy Darke 30 Aug 2023
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  • Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm predictions for Thursday's NRL game
  • Ryan Papenhuyzen has scored an average of 2 tries in his 3 games against Brisbane
  • Can Brisbane seal the minor premiership?
Brisbane Broncos, Minor Premiership
Brisbane Broncos have a chance to win their first minor premiership in 23 years. (Getty Images)

Brisbane Broncos vs Melbourne Storm Tips

I'm backing the favourite in Thursday night’s top-4 clash between Brisbane and Melbourne. Both teams are coming in understrength, but the Broncos have the chance to take their first minor premiership since the year 2000, which should give them the motivation needed to get the win.

The moneyline is the safest card to play to get the weekend off to a good start. I like the under here as well as both teams will be lacking the class to get across the line. 

Ryan Papenhuyzen will start his first game of NRL in over a year and it would be unholy and disrespectful if you didn’t have him as an anytime tryscorer in his return.

  • Brisbane have won 7 straight games. 
  • Melbourne are 13-10 to the UNDER Game Total in 2023.
  • 6 of 8 games in the final round of the home-and-away season in 2022 went UNDER the Game Total
  • Ryan Papenhuyzen has scored 6 tries in his 3 career games against Brisbane, including 4 tries in his last game against the Broncos in round 4, 2021.

Head to Head 

Melbourne has some unbelievable head-to-head records against various teams and Brisbane is one of them. The Storm are undefeated against the Broncos in their last 13 games against each other. 

But, what makes their dominance over Brisbane even more spectacular is they haven’t lost at Suncorp in their last 12 games at the venue. 

Brisbane Broncos Form

Brisbane have won their last seven games heading into the final round of the season. 

Their last match against the Raiders proved that they are playing a class above most teams in the NRL, beating Canberra, who were fifth on the ladder) by 29-18 in very comfortable fashion. 

Brisbane Broncos Team News

Ins: Benjamin Te Kura, Blake Mozer, Cory Paix, Delouise Hoeter, Israel Leota, Jordan Pereira, Josh Rogers, Martin Taupau, Tristan Sailor, Xavier Willison

Rested: Reece Walsh, Herbie Farnworth, Selwyn Cobbo, Ezra Mam, Billy Walters, Payne Haas, Kurt Capewell
Injured: Adam Reynolds, Patrick Carrigan
Suspended: Kotoni Staggs

Brisbane Broncos Team List

1. Tristan Sailor
2. Corey Oates
3. Jesse Arthars
4. Delouise Hoeter
5. Jordan Pereira
6. Josh Rogers
7. Jock Madden
8. Tom Flegler 
9. Tyson Smoothy
10. Corey Jensen
11. Brendan Piakura
12. Jordan Riki
13. Keenan Palasia


14. Blake Mozer
15. Cory Paix
16. Xavier Willison
17. Martin Taupau


18. Benjamin Te Kura
19. Israel Leota
20. Kurt Capewell
21. Kobe Hetherington
22. Selwyn Cobbo

Melbourne Storm Form

Melbourne got revenge for their shock round 3 loss to the Titans, beating the Gold Coast 37-16 at AAMI Park. 

Although it was a strong, positive win for the Storm there are still plenty of questions floating around about how far they will go in the 2023 Finals after once again failing to really control the game and allowing the Titans to break their line seven times in the match.

Melbourne Storm Team News

Ins: Aaron Pene, Alec MacDonald, Cole Geyer, Grant Anderson, Jack Howarth, Jayden Nikorima, Joe Chan, Josh King, Justin Olam, Keagan Russell-Smith, Reimis Smith, Sualauvi Faalogo, Tariq Sims, Tristan Powell, Tyran Wishart

Rested: Nick Meaney, Marion Seve, Xavier Coates, Cameron Munster, Christian Welch, Nelson Asofa-Solomona, Tui Kamikamica, Trent Loiero
Injured: Harry Grant, Jahrome Hughes, Dean Ieremia, George Jennings, Jonah Pezet

Melbourne Storm Team List

1. Ryan Papenhuyzen
2. Will Warbrick
3. Justin Olam
4. Young Tonumaipea
5. Reimis Smith
6. Jayden Nikorima 
7. Tyran Wishart
8. Tariq Sims
9. Bronson Garlick
10. Tepai Moeroa
11. Chris Lewis
12. Eli Katoa
13. Josh King


14. Sualauvi Faalogo
15. Alec MacDonald
16. Aaron Pene
17. Jack Howarth


18. Grant Anderson
19. Joe Chan
20. Keagan Russell-Smith
21. Cole Geyer
22. Tristan Powell


I'm on Brisbane to bring home the minor premiership for the first time in 23 years in what will be a low scoring game. Ryan Papenhuyzen will complete his fairytale return to the starting lineup with a try.

Best Bet: Brisbane Broncos Moneyline @7/10 at bet365 Australia - 3 Units
Value Bet: Under 43.5 Game Total @9/10 at picklebet - 2 Units
Tryscoring Tips: Ryan Papenhuyzen Anytime Tryscorer @19/10 at Boombet - 2 Units
Tryscoring Tips: Ryan Papenhuyzen First Tryscorer @14/1 at Boombet - 1 Unit
Brisbane Broncos
@7/10 - 3 Units
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Brisbane Broncos v Melbourne Storm