2019 Thousand Guineas Tips & Best Bet - Will Flit justify her short price?

Justin Darcy has supplied his tips for the Thousand Guineas this weekend.
Thousand Guineas Tips & Best Bet
Flit (inside) will start as the short priced favourite in the Thousand Guineas (Getty Images)

Thousand Guineas


  • DateSat 10 Oct, 2020
  • RacecourseCaulfield
  • Race Distance1600 metres
  • Conditions3yo Fillies Open - Set Weights + Penalty
  • StatusGroup 1
  • Prize Money$500,000

Thousand Guineas Tips

The Thousand Guineas is fillies version of the Caulfield Guineas held at Caulfield race course on October 13.

Restricted to three-year-olds, fillies such as Atlantic Jewel and Miss Finland have all claimed glory in the event.

Flit dominates the market after Tuesday's barrier draw from Group One winner Lyre and powerful filly Missile Mantra, with all fillies looking to become valuable broodmares. 

Thousand Guineas Odds

Horses
Odds
Flit$2.10
Lyre$6.50
Missile Mantra$7.50
Acting$11
Tenley$13.00
Emeralds$13.00
Southbank$17.00
Odds are provided by BetEasy and are correct as of 9/10/19 - 9.25am

Thousand Guineas Best Bet - Flit @ $2.10

You simply could not have missed her run a fortnight ago in the Thousand Guineas Prelude where she was a good thing beat.

Back in Sydney, she is rated as one of the best three-year-old fillies along with Funstar who was explosive in the Group One Flight Stakes last week.

Flit has looked like she will extend out to the mile and he figures have shown this, having the fastest split between the 800m and 600m when she started to build her momentum and she ran an 11 flat for the 400m to 200m where she really showed a turn of foot.

It was race over from here having no galloping room from the 200m where she clearly would have wont race if she saw clear air.

She has drawn barrier two for Saturday and I think she may park herself closer to the speed and hope for a bit more luck in running.

Thousand Guienas Best Bet: Flit - $2.10 via BetEasy

Thousand Guineas Value Bet - Missile Mantra @ $7.50

She is the second favourite but she is more a $5 chance I believe.

She has savaged the line at her past two starts and she is really looking for the mile now. 

The bad gate will not worry her as she is a get back type anyway and will hope that there is a bit more speed in front than last start.

They had a mid-race slow down in the prelude which had ruled her out of the race coming from the back.

I think there will be a bit more speed here, purely because the favourite has drawn the inside so the field will not want to be dictated to by her, meaning this may give Missile Mantra to come home over the top while the front five or six play games with each other,

Thousand Guineas Value Bet: Missile Mantra - $7.50 via BetEasy

What time is the first race on Thousand Guineas Day?

The first race is run at approximately 12pm.

What time is the Thousand Guineas?

The Thousand Guineas is run at 3.10pm.

How can I live stream the Thousand Guineas?

Visit our live streaming hub for all the information on how to live stream the Caulfield Stakes and all other Australian horse races.

Verdict

We will be backing Flit heavily as well as a small saver on Missile Mantra to win our money back.

Best Bet: Flit @ 2.10 at Beteasy - 17 Units
Value Bet: Missile Mantra @ 7.50 at Beteasy - 3 Units

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Betting Slip | 12 Oct 2019

Thousand Guineas

Best Bet

Bet 17 Win 35.70
Flit

Value Bet

Bet 3 Win 22.50
Missile Mantra
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