Race 1 - 11:30AM E GROUP SECURITY HANDICAP Tips (1500 METRES)
Over 1400m off some very quiet trials, 1. RAGING BULL was under pressure a long way out on debut, hitting a big flat spot before picking up strongly in the last 100m. This colt will get over more ground, so the extra 100m here may not be enough, but in time, I'm pretty confident this colt be the best horse to have come out of this field.
3. Deficit was beaten a pimple by subsequent city winner Park Avenue on debut and broke through two starts later, arriving in the last stride on June 13 at Hawkesbury. 1400m to 1500m looks ideal and he draws for the run of the race under Nash Rawiller.
2. Verbek is talented although he'd be frustrating connections, losing a Hawkesbury Maiden on protest two back before placing at Listed level on June 5. Now with three runs this campaign, that interstate trip could well bring him on maturity-wise.
The chances certainly don't end with 6. Zadig
, a strong son of Astern who has won two in a row at country level. Not sure how he measures up here, but there's enough to like and he's double figure odds ($14.00 @ bookmaker
) in an open race.
Race 2 - 12:05PM SHARP EXTENSIVE IT HANDICAP Tips (1800 METRES)
After being a good betting proposition at $3.50-$4.00 in his first two Australian starts, the odds-on quote for 4. WICKLOW is hard to take, but it looks as though only bad luck stops a winning hat-trick. After sustaining a wide run to prevail at Newcastle, this Waller-trained import put them to the sword a fortnight ago. This isn't much harder and he carries 55.5kg once again.
We often see the less fancied Waller stable mate get the cash and 1. Cristal Breeze will be better suited to the 1800m on Saturday, having got home fairly in both Australian starts over the mile. He might need further again, but is closing in on a peak.
Michael Costa caused a big boilover last Saturday with Seentoomany and now has 5. Olympic Class down from the 'Sunshine State'. This gelding is still learning the caper, but there's talent there while down in the weights and rolling forward, he should be respected.
It's hard to see 7. Red Santa turning the tables on Wicklow from a fortnight ago although from a better gate, this three-year-old should be settling closer. He's in top three/four calculations.
Race 3 - 12:40PM TAB HIGHWAY CLASS 3 HANDICAP Tips (1200 METRES)
The favourite 7. CAVALIER CHARLES will need luck from the gate, but in what isn't an overly deep Highway, he has the class to get away with this, providing they can run on. The son of Denman rattled home to win first-up on a Soft 7 and prior to the spell, put in an eye-catching display behind Exotic Deel, a mare that won her next two before a BM72 placing in town.
4. Patino Ruby felt the pinch late fresh over this track/trip before being ridden colder on June 5 and she found the line well. While this filly is versatile, it does seem a waste to take away such a big asset (her early speed). With improvement third-up, she can win.
Having every favour to win a Highway fresh was 5. Undercover Music albeit it was a soft victory in the end and she only goes up 1kg. A lightly raced mare, the daughter of Your Song looks to have some upside and she can get a soft midfield trail again.
3. Fortunate Lass
is perhaps the pick of the outsiders ($31.00 @ WinnersBet
). a mare that won two in a row before splitting Don'tforgetmonica and Tipping Point, two runners that would be in the market here. Back to 1200m is a plus.
Race 4 - 1:15PM ACY SECURITIES HANDICAP Tips (2000 METRES)
Honest as the day is the long is the Paul Cave-trained 2. MONSIEUR SISU who is arriving with three placings under his belt so far this campaign and given the last two have been over 1800m, this is as good a chance as he'll see to run out 10 furlongs. Has run into the in-form Mubariz via his latest attempts and now back to 78 level, he can give a good sight on an each-way basis.
Godolphin import 1. Lackeen has looked like a superstar at the trials, but hasn't been able to transform that to race day and he looked to have his last event shot to bits before turning it up late. Want to see him do it first and the $2.60 is hardly appealing.
10. Kutahya could be a big improver from the Waller stable, a son of Savabeel that does look to be crying out for this trip and he was a galloper who got stronger as his last preparation wore on. Still suspect on his class but he gets weight off all key rivals.
Back to 2000m, 6. No Compromise is short enough, a gelding that was 20/1 when carrying 6.5kg less in a similar race to this two back and the big weight swing on Stockman was the difference on May 29. JMac could win on a broomstick at the moment, though.
Race 5 - 1:50PM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE HANDICAP Tips (1100 METRES)
Moved to trainer Jarrod Austin ahead of his second racing preparation, 1. NIKOHLI BEAGLE created an immediate impression for the new yard, recording a winning hat-trick late in 2020. Following an impressive trial, he landed good bets for us fresh and there's improvement to come. Tactically versatile and with Nash Rawiller sticking, the price is fair for what looks a glorified midweek race.
Ending a winning drought on June 9 was 5. Fastconi with the blinkers on and the drop to 1100m being a catalyst in that Canterbury success. James McDonald stays aboard, perhaps an important lead considering he's been with Irish Angel who has won her last two.
6. Sally's Day was Listed placed second-up last autumn following a Provincial win and she has been very costly for punters since then. No public trials, but this mare has a good fresh record and her BM78 form from the summer warrant respect here.
Sustaining a long run to prevail narrowly first-up was 10. Escape Artist and Kinloch franked the form from that May 19 affair with an easy win on Wednesday. This is harder but she does plummet in the weights although a wide gate makes it tricky.
Race 6 - 2:25PM RANVET HANDICAP Tips (1300 METRES)
On the seven-day turnaround, 12. TYCOONIST was very unlucky on June 5. Settling towards the rear after jumping from a wide alley, the luck simply never came in the run home, with the son of Zoustar flashing home when out at the 100m. With three runs under the belt and down in the weights from a low draw, this is about D-Day with James McDonald now taking the reins.
4. Smart Image is getting costly, but he's been building quite well this preparation and with the winkers going on, it was improved effort second-up before running home into second on June 5. Draws one and the extra 100m is a positive.
Winning second-up on May 15 Rosehill meeting was 3. Count De Rupee who then contested the Group Three Fred Best Classic and was well held in what was shot at the stumps for a Stradbroke slot. This is clearly easier and back to soft ground is no negative.
Fancy the winner comes the above three although second-up improvement wouldn't shock at an each-way price with 7. Royal Banquet. He was fair fresh off an 11 month lay-off and getting to 1300m suits.
Race 7 - 3:05PM XXXX W J MCKELL CUP Tips (2000 METRES)
There are a few runners at each-way price that do look to be nearing in on a peak run and on a Soft 7/Heavy 8, 12. APPROACH DISCREET looks the most suited. He was enormous first-up at Caulfield before an honest effort at Sandown and the 1800m attempt on May 22 was superb. Looking for this trip now and is down in the weights, the gap between runs is the main query.
appeared to be travelling into his June 5 assignment quite well, picking up ground in restricted room before the 100m where he simply had nowhere to go and was under a hold from there. Is double figure odds ($13.00 @ Sportsbet
) now third-up, but he may need this track a little firmer.
Chris Waller has accepted with five runners and you could nearly raffle them. Not sure whether 2. Wu Gok is past his best but he has a great record in the wet and under gun front-running hoop Josh Parr, he can control this. This gelding was fair in the Winter Cup.
I was quite keen on 11. Brutality last Saturday and after tracking into the race well, he was very one-paced in the run home in an eventual fourth-place finish. Untried at 10 furlongs, but that last effort indicated it would suit now.
Race 8 - 3:45PM BOWERMANS COMMERCIAL FURNITURE HANDICAP Tips (1300 METRES)
Lightly raced Godolphin mare 7. KATALIN resumed off a 14-month spell and gave her rivals windburn on the May 19. A half-sister to Group winning stable mate Ranier, she arrives off a little freshen-up but has kept up to the mark with a June 8 trial. The wet track is the complete unknown, hence the $2.00-$2.15 quotes as on a good surface, I think she's a $1.60 chance in a modest affair.
A galloper that goes from fringe mid-week level to Stakes grade on wet tracks is 12. Rock My Wand who placed behind Group One winners Instant Celebrity and Personal third-up in the spring. Was plain fresh, but she improved second-up and has trialled since.
1. Belluci Babe was a heavily supported favourite last start and although didn't land those bets, recorded the fastest last 600m of that entire May 29 program in a leader dominated race. Was scratched last week with a wide gate and has drawn out again.
Still needing a few to come out to gain a start is 15. Expat who was always chasing fresh before being crossed by Majestic Shot on June 5. Up to 1300m now, I don't mind the wider gate as Clipperton can roll across without being hunted up early.
Race 9 - 4:25PM ROSEHILL BOWLING CLUB HANDICAP Tips (1500 METRES)
It's a little hard to gauge exactly where 3. BADOOSH is at following a poor end to his last campaign and off two fair trials, the return was okay on May 29. Up to 1550m is a tick and he gave Cisco Bay a galloping lesson second-up last August on a Heavy track. That form and defeating the likes of She's Ideel and Parry Sound early last spring does read very well for this.
On a Soft 5 or 6, you'd nearly declare 12. Wairere Falls here. It was a strong return behind subsequent Listed winner Charleise and he was a little unlucky behind Great House second-up. His summer attempts on a Soft 7 and then a Heavy 8 weren't flash, although he is going better this time in.
Another at a big price ($18.00 @ Winnersbet
) that warrants consideration is 2. Milk Man
, a galloper that was badly out of form prior to his Doomben tilt on May 22, where the blinkers went on and he made good ground from the rear. The June 15 trial at Hawkesbury was very good.
4. Criminal Code produced arguably the run of the day over the 1300m at Rosehill on May 29 and the extra furlong second-up is a positive. He may still be a run short though and the wide gate is a knock despite getting the services of James McDonald.