Race 1 - 11:30AM THE AGENCY REAL ESTATE MILE Tips (1600 METRES)
Tough race and leaning the way of 4. MAURICE'S MEDAD. There was an opinion of him early (supported to win a Breeders Plate) but getting over further is the key. Showed speed and class when beating older rivals at Hawkesbury and felt he'd have done the same the start prior if it weren't for a Soft 7, so conditions crucial. Finished next to Gin Martini in that Kensington event, who arguably should've beaten Converge a fortnight back.
got back in a slowly run Mornington Sires and although couldn't go with Daily Bugle when the sprint went on, balanced up late to record the fastest last 200m of that event. You can tie that winner's form through Lightsaber, which is good enough for this. He's the pick of each-way chances ($7.00 @ Neds
3. Converge was brave when racing three-wide fresh in the Pago Pago but was weak late on April 3 and had every favour with how that track was playing. Certainly, wary of a third-up peak, however, is very short enough at an even money quote.
Doubt this is the day for 7. Last Not Least
, which the market reflects ($71.00 @ Palmerbet
) but this big and strapping son of Criterion could be a John Sargent stayer to watch next season. Blinkers go on following an ordinary run at Kembla Grange, but there was enough to like about his debut effort.
Race 2 - 12:05PM BISLEY WORKWEAR SOUTH PACIFIC CLASSIC Tips (1400 METRES)
Following a classy debut, 11. RAINBOW CONNECTION contested a strong BM72 on March 31, where although was unsuited at 1100m, produced the fastest last 200m of that Warwick Farm meeting. The half-brother to Hong Kong champion Golden Sixty finished next to Juan Diva (luckless on Wednesday) and cleared out from Belluci Babe (won on Wednesday). He's an each-way chance here.
8. Ellsberg was a tough competitor in his first racing campaign, where he continually showed up and is hard to knock, especially with his racing pattern. The last trial indicated he was ready but perhaps with a Queensland Carnival on the agenda, the late betting would be the best guide first-up.
5. Acrophobic has had chances but has also been thereabouts against good opposition since breaking the Maiden, with only wet tracks pulling him up. The return run was good and along with dropping 4.5kg off that, he draws much more favourably in gate four.
An ATM for punters over summer was 2. Private Eye, who was unbeaten that campaign and although had some excuses, was quite plain on return. Has since won a trial with the blinkers and they go on for race day. I like him, but just not sure where he's at right now.
Race 3 - 12:40PM POLYTRACK PROVINCIAL CHAMPIONSHIPS FINAL Tips (1400 METRES)
As the market suggests, this does look nearly a race of two and from the better draw, it has us going the way of 1. PANDANO. Looking a promising type early, it was slow and steady in the return campaign off a long spell but improved, winning a Benchmark 88 before bolting in with the Gosford Qualifier. Hasn't raced since that February 27 event, but it would be a shock if this 500k event wasn't a genuine target.
If the barriers were swapped, 7. Great News would go on top, a super consistent mare that bolted in fresh then looked the winner second-up but peaked late against the hard fit Starspangled Rodeo. Can improve third-up but just not sure where Tommy Berry lands from the wide alley.
9. Electric Girl
should've finished closer to Great News at Gosford, getting out when it was all over. Has won a recent trial over Magic Millions 3yo winner Aim under a hold and draws well here. An each-way chance at decent odds ($18.00 @ WinnersBet
) but needs the track to stay firm.
While she doesn't exactly win out of turn, 14. Liveinthefastlane
is consistently thereabouts and was very competitive in town last campaign. The second-up effort was sound and she's good value for the exotics at a big price ($43.00 @ Sportsbetting
Race 4 - 1:15PM HEINEKEN PERCY SYKES STAKES Tips (1200 METRES)
7. TRIFACCIA is a big, raw and long striding filly who had no idea what the racing caper was about in her debut but improved sharply at start two with a third in the Reisling Stakes, flashing home in a Group Two she should've won. Freshened-up and avoiding the wet tracks, her recent rick-over trial was superb. Outside of Anamoe, she may be the most talented two-year-old in this Godolphin crop and is a good price on Saturday.
Following a debut victory, 2. Najmaty ventured south for the Listed Redoute's Choice Stakes and reeled them in with ease, recording a soft win at Caulfield. Not sure that there were any world beaters in that field although the third-placed Hunnam did win seven days later.
5. Crystal Bound defeated Hunnam by a big space on debut at The Valley and although well suited that night, still put six lengths on the runner-up He's Exceptional. Harder here but has tactical speed to offset the gate and worked strongly on Tuesday. No knock at this stage.
Although 1. Arcaded has been well placed both side of a Blue Diamond flop, she's still managed to record three from four overall and has been kept on the fresh side following a Rosehill win. James McDonald sticking with Najmaty may be the lead.
Race 5 - 1:50PM THE STAR AUSTRALIAN OAKS Tips (2400 METRES)
READ: Full Australian Oaks Preview
It's a competitive edition of the Australian Oaks and a fresh filly on the Sydney scene is 2. AMARELINHA, a New Zealand visitor who has won five of seven career starts with the last defeat being a narrow one to Aegon in the 3yo Karaka Millions. The only proven runner in this field over 2400m, she showed a turn-of-foot to win the New Zealand Oaks on March 20 at Trentham which is a big and testing circuit.
4. Harmony Rose dropped back to fillies' grade last start in the Vinery Stud Stakes, arriving there off a fighting effort in the Group One Randwick Guineas. She did go hard when leading but if rated kinder up front, should only improve on Saturday (was a month between runs last start).
Racing on firmer ground has seen 3. Hungry Heart really the turn the corner, recording back-to-back victories including the Vinery Stud Stakes, against an on-pace bias at Rosehill. There's perhaps a little more upside with some of her rivals but she's the form runner.
has ground to make up on Hungry Heart and Harmony Rose, but this has clearly been the target, so over the staying trip, it's her best chance. Would be much shorter than her current price ($17.00 @ bet365
) on a wet track but is ready to peak and has some claims.
Race 6 - 2:25PM ARROWFIELD 3YO SPRINT Tips (1200 METRES)
Fit and bringing Group One form is 2. PRAGUE who produced arguably the run of the Eskimo Prince Stakes when sustaining a wide effort from the rear before his Newmarket Handicap attempt when rattling home for fourth. Back against the three-year-old's here and scratched from the Darby Munro on Slipper Day, he trialled well on April 9 in readiness. Strong line-up but at a double figure quote, he's good value.
While I don't think she thrived on a Soft 7, the class of 9. Isotope prevailed in that Darby Munro, reeling in Group One winning filly Odeum late. She produced two sensational performances before Ryan Maloney fell in the Magic Millions and can improve again. Just needs a pinch of luck from an inside alley.
Not really sure what to make of 8. September Run who looks the obvious with the Nature Strip form from the Lightning, but was disappointing in the Newmarket and then worked home well against the bias in the William Reid. Scratched from the TJ Smith, is this an afterthought?
7. The Face
resumes and the foot should be down early from barrier 10 where running them along then pinching a break being his best chance here. Won a trial by a big space and the form around his summer preparation is stacking up okay. Can give a sight at decent odds ($16.00 @ BlueBet
Race 7 - 3:05PM SCHWEPPES SYDNEY CUP Tips (3200 METRES)
READ: Full Sydney Cup Preview
Despite racing three-wide throughout the Manion Cup, 13. REALM OF FLOWERS still managed to chase from off the speed as the only runner making any real inroads, recording the fastest last 600m (35.24) in the process. She was only a few strides off grabbing Favorite Moon, who had all the favours and while it's an open Sydney Cup, is ticking enough boxes at present to be considered a leading hope.
12. She's Ideel has put together a tidy record to date and it should be even better as a certainty beat third-up this preparation when contesting the Epona Stakes at Rosehill. 3200m is a query but she has the best turn-of-foot in the race and chased a genuine WFA horse a fortnight ago.
The Mark Newnham-trained 8. Spirit Ridge won a pair of Stakes race before a let-up. He hasn't caught the eye whatsoever in two subsequent efforts, but is building fitness and this is the target. Is far better suited under Handicap conditions and will get every chance on the speed.
10. Favorite Moon couldn't have asked for a better run via his Australian debut, prevailing in the Manion Cup and very little else made an impression there barring Realm Of Flowers. He maps for a soft time in transit once again.
Race 8 - 3:50PM LONGINES QUEEN ELIZABETH STAKES Tips (2000 METRES)
READ: Full Queen Elizabeth Stakes Preview
There's more petrol in the tank for 7. VERRY ELLEEGANT ahead the 2021 Queen Elizabeth Stakes compared to last autumn where she also contested the Tancred Stakes, and was a month between runs going into that most recent Ranvet Stakes, so there's improvement left. In the most anticipated battle of the Sydney Autumn Carnival, the eight-time Group One winner is perhaps the safest option again.
Last year's winner 1. Addeybb interestingly gets the blinkers applied for the first time, which is unusual for a seven-year-old, but he does need to find a length or two. It was expected that he'd peak for this feature, but looks unlikely to get a really testing surface, which is when he thrives.
At the price ($17.00 @ Ladbrokes
), I'm warming to 8. Mo'unga
as a genuine blowout chance, especially if the track continues to firm, as versus many of these that like to get their toe in, he's one with an instant turn-of-foot on a good surface. Tough ask at this level, but there's enough in his favour.
Following an ordinary start to his campaign, 2. Sir Dragonet has improved out of sight in two Sydney performances, chasing the fancies home in the Ranvet before winning the Tancred Stakes. That's not vintage weight-for-age form, but he's clearly back on track.
Race 9 - 4:30PM MOET & CHANDON QUEEN OF THE TURF STAKES Tips (1600 METRES)
READ: Full Coolmore Legacy Stakes Preview
Three-time Group One winner 1. PROBABEEL looks well off a little freshen-up, shaking the cobwebs off with a 1200m trial win at Randwick on April 9 and from barrier six where Kerrin McEvoy can camp midfield, if not a little closer, the map couldn't be any kinder. Had excuses in the All-Star Mile (wet track/wide gate) but beat a champion prior to that and on firmer going, should be too good if she's back to her best.
Going now from six furlongs to 1600m is a little unconventional, however, the Thousand Guineas winner 11. Odeum dominated over this journey last spring and as one of the more untapped runners in this field, certainly warrants respect, especially now with experience on the "other leg".
7. Vanna Girl
came right into calculations for the Group One Epsom Handicap last spring following a big Tramway performance but just wasn't able to progress as that campaign wore on. Class got her home fresh in Brisbane and with luck from an inside gate, is the pick of the outsiders ($16.00 @ TopSport
This is another step up in class for 4. Nimalee
, but she's clearly gone to a new level this campaign, overcoming a setback/freshen-up to make it back-to-back victories on April 3. She at least goes into the exotics at a double figure quote ($13.00 @ bet365
Race 10 - 5:10PM TAB SAPPHIRE STAKES Tips (1200 METRES)
Receiving the visitors draw is 3. ENTRIVIERE, who has really caught the eye with some big performances across the ditch, winning five from six and should be unbeaten. With sprinters especially, it's always tricky lining up the Kiwi form but with Tofane aside, who has queries, most of this field are at their mark. In a typically open Mare's event with plenty of hopes, she may be the one with a bit of X factor and Jmac takes the ride.
11. Wandabaa recorded placings at Stakes level last campaign and off two excellent trials, her return was brilliant, recording the fastest last 200m/600m of that McCarten Stakes while from a horror gate, there were excuses second-up. Certainly going well, just hope they haven't missed the boat.
Hard to knock 7. Seasons who has bounced back this autumn and improved second-up, prevailing on Golden Slipper Day by a big margin. Goes up half a kilo for an event that only has a little more depth, but this is hardly a big stretch. Just depends on how the inside is playing.
4. Fiesta was fair first-up over this track and trip before contesting the Group One Galaxy where she was outclassed, but not disgraced behind a dominant Eduardo. Much better placed back against her own sex and won third-up last spring in similar company.