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Pakenham Betting Tips for January 11, 2024 - Confrontational to upset

martin-pennington
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Last updated: 10 Jan 2024
Martin Pennington 10 Jan 2024
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  • Pakenham host a Thursday night meeting on January 11
  • The track is currently in the Soft 7 range
  • The preview opens with a $19 selection
  • Our Best Bet is primed to breakthrough
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Pakenham Tips for 11.01.2024
Nine races feature on Thursday night's Pakenham card. (Getty)

Pakenham hosts a nine-race program on January 11 and our free betting tips are available below. 
  • Pakenham Tips January 11
  • Pro Lift Garage Doors BM70 Handicap Tips (Race 3) 
  • Liberty Equipment Hire BM64 Handicap Tips (Race 4)
  • Sportsbet Future Stars Series Heat 2 Tips (Race 6)
  • Greenway Turf Solutions BM58 Handicap Tips (Race 8)

Pakenham Tips January 11


Pro Lift Garage Doors BM70 Handicap Tips (Race 3) 


Pakenham Roughie - Race 3 No. 7 Confrontational

The gelding has placed on both previous starts on a heavy track and while the most recent of those came back in June 2019, he has performed well on soft going since then.

Confrontational placed third over 2000m when competing at metro level in a Benchmark 78 handicap held on a soft 6 track at Caulfield in July last year.

That effort preceded a narrow win when racing in a similar contest over 2200m on the synthetic track at this venue twelve days later.

While the six-year-old failed to shine twice subsequently in his last spell, both of those efforts came in metro races at Flemington and Moonee Valley.

Jason Warren’s gelding jumped at odds of $26 when last of six over 1600m at Caulfield when first-up this prep, but is expected to have improved for that effort.

Liberty Equipment Hire BM64 Handicap Tips (Race 4)


Pakenham Value Bet - Race 4 No. 9 Movader

It’s hard to get past the four-year-old’s impressive heavy track stats, with the mare having won twice and placed second four times from her six starts in testing conditions.

Movade showed good form at metro level in her last prep, including when winning in a 1400m Benchmark 64 on a Heavy 9 at Sandown Lakeside in July.

While the mare was unable to finish in the first three in two subsequent starts, she was beaten less than two lengths on each occasion, with both efforts coming at Caulfield.

The second of those starts saw her contest a 1400m Benchmark 84 on a Good 4 in August , ith subsequent Group 2 winner Life Lessons among those ahead of her that day.

Barrier fourteen is far from ideal for the daughter of Invader, but she gets a significant drop in grade and looks value to salute dropping in trip on her return to action. 

Sportsbet Future Stars Series Heat 2 Tips (Race 6)


Pakenham Best Bet - Race 6 No. 7 Pink Chandon

Trainer Mike Moroney’s filly has shown a liking for wet tracks in her two starts to date, including when delivering a second-place finish on a Heavy 8 surface on debut.

That effort came in a 1000m maiden at Bendigo in June last year when Pink Chandon raced from the rear of mid-division, having been slowly away.

She was spelled following that effort and she appeared to have no issues with the step up to this trip when losing out narrowly at Mornington on her return to action.

The daughter of Pierro raced on a Soft 6 at Mornington and notably, that form is working out particularly well with the third, fourth and fifth all winning next time. 

Pink Chandon has an inside barrier here and while she tackles a double-figure field for the first time, she looks capable of delivering a victory with Jye McNeil retaining the ride. 

Greenway Turf Solutions BM58 Handicap Tips (Race 8)


Pakenham Next Best Bet - Race 8 No. 2 Wanda’s Outlaw

The mare proved that she can be a force at this Benchmark 58 level when delivering a victory over this course and distance in November.

The step up to metro level proved too much when the four-year-old struggled in finishing down the field at Sandown Lakeside subsequently.

Notably, Wanda's Outlaw is proven on the forecast heavy going, having broken her maiden on a Heavy 8 track in a 1629m maiden at Werribee last year.

Her only subsequent heavy track start came when outclassed in the 2500m Group 3 SA Fillies Classic at Morphettville two starts later.

The return to provincial racing and a Benchmark 58 contest are both positives here, while jockey Luke Cartwright’s three-kilogram claim is also useful.

Verdict

Our Pakenham selections for Thursday, January 11 are:
Best Bet1: Pink Chandon To Win @14/5 at Topsport - 4 Units
Best Bet2: Wanda's Outlaw Each Way @28/5 at Boombet - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Movader Each Way @13/2 at bet365 Australia - 2 Units
Best Bet4: Confrontational Each Way @18/1 at Neds - 1 Unit
Pink Chandon
To Win
@14/5 - 4 Units
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Betting Slip | 11 Jan 2024

Pakenham - January 11