Pakenham Betting Tips, Best Bets & Odds for January 14

This gelding from the Waller stable has been crying out for the 1400m, hitting the line with gusto last start in a race where the runner-up has subsequently won nicely.

His first-up run was very good as well over 1200m at Yarra Valley, sitting just off the speed and holding his ground to the line.

Being from Mongolian Khan, Amfissa will only improve as he steps up in trip, and with an inside gate, may be able to sit outside of the favourite who will likely sit behind the leader.

As far as progressiveness goes, this is the horse we want to follow, but is it just one start too soon?

I have tipped my own horse here a few times this prep, but this is not a strong race and he is in career best form, where he looks well weighted with Celine Gaudray's claim and in a race with horses who struggle to win.

Two starts back, he beat Chase On The Case who was competitive at Moonee Valley prior and has some nice form around him.

Last start, Oh So Skeptical was not fully wound up and just faded on his run on a heavy deck at Sale over 1740m.

On a week and a half back-up, back to the mile, with gate one and Celine Gaudray on who is striking at 33% on front-runners, it is going to take a horse that really wants to win to beat him and they're aren't many in that category.

Rutherford was a dominant winner first-up at Geelong where he never looked like getting beaten.

Since then, he was fourth at Sandown to Modear who was backed off the map, but he still ran okay at 64 level.

Last start, he was pretty poor at Sandown behind Zoushack, finishing six lengths off that horse and never looking likely.

Now coming back to 58 grade race that is a lot weaker than what he has faced at his last two starts and with Jye McNeil in the saddle, this four-year-old does look well placed this Thursday.