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Newcastle Betting Tips for May 11, 2024 - Race-By-Race preview for Gosford Cup day

alex-marsh
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Last updated: 09 May 2024
Alex Marsh 09 May 2024
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  • The 2024 Gosford Cup program has been moved to Newcastle due to wet conditions
  • Saturday's meeting features two Listed Races and 'The Coast'
  • Included is a detailed race-by-race prediction and analysis to guide your bets
Expired
Newcastle Tips for 11.05.2024
Saturday's Gosford Cup meeting will be run at Newcastle. (Getty)
 

Wet conditions have forced the 2024 Gosford Cup program to be moved to Newcastle, with two Listed races and 'The Coast' headling the meeting.
  • Newcastle Tips May 11
  • Race 1 - 11:15AM Gosford It 2yo Handicap Tips (1200m)
  • Race 2 - 11:50AM Midway Handicap Tips (1200m)
  • Race 3 - 12:25PM TAB Highway Handicap Tips (1200m)
  • Race 4 - 1:00PM Tooheys New Bm78 Handicap Tips (2100m)
  • Race 5 - 1:35PM Signarama Erina/Gosford 3&4yo BM72 Tips (1600m)
  • Race 6 - 2:10PM Buterin L'estrange Gosford Gold Cup Tips (2100m)
  • Race 7 - 2:45PM De Bortoli Wines Takeover Target Stakes Tips (1200m)
  • Race 8 - 3:20PM The Coast Tips (1600m)
  • Race 9 - 4:00PM Triple M Thunder Thousand BM78 Handicap Tips (1000m)
  • Race 10 - 4:40PM Railway Hotel BM78 Handicap Tips (1200m)
  • Hawkesbury Quaddie Tips:

Our race-by-race preview for Saturday is included below.


Newcastle Tips May 11


Race 1 - 11:15AM Gosford It 2yo Handicap Tips (1200m)


Best: 8. President. He was simply never in calculations in the Group 2 Skyline behind Storm Boy and with perhaps the Brisbane winter in mind, President was sent for a little break.

There was plenty to like about the debut, where he was heavily backed at Randwick-Kensington and coming from the rear, he did a lot wrong when grabbing third.

Two smart ones in Chateau Miraval and Growing Empire filled that quinella. so the form is there and he appeared to be travelling well on a Soft 7 surface via his most recent trial.

Value: 6. Omnic.This is h arder than the Super Maiden that he contested at Gosford on April 25 but he was enormous in defeat there and 1200m looks ideal.

Omnic recorded the second fastest last 200m of that meeting, where he overcame trouble before angling out late and rattling home for second.

All of his lead-up work was on soft ground and he should handle wet tracks on breeding, while with a low draw, he can settle closer this time around.

Race 2 - 11:50AM Midway Handicap Tips (1200m)


Best: 5. Silvanito. Well he's adept on wet ground, the April 20 surface at Randwick was a tricky one and it's worth noting that Silvanito had no winning second-up form.

I'm prepared to forgive that run, especially given the return was decent in a midweek BM72 and coming back to 1200m is no knock for now.

Also, he was a blinkers horse when campaigning for James Cummings and with that key gear change back in effect here, he can improve third-up.

Value: 6. Sweet Ruby. She isn't easiest horse to catch, however, this is as well as she's been placed in a long time, with the mare back to a Midway.

Along with contesting stakes races, Sweet Ruby as been thereabouts in stronger metro company, which includes a third in a BM78 via her last third-up outing.

After contesting a Provincial Qualifier fresh, it was an improved showing second-up at Canterbury and she should've finished a little closer there.

Race 3 - 12:25PM TAB Highway Handicap Tips (1200m)


Best: 6. Tanglewood. On ability, Tanglewood has a bit on his Highway rivals here, however, he's an unknown on wet ground and that's an obvious query.

He was on a Soft 5 when fancied in a metro 64 last winter via an end-of-prep run before resuming on April 27, where he was runner-up to a flying Martini Mumma.

The four-year-old looked very fresh in that return, where he also wanted to hang in but he balanced up late and this big track will suit him.
Value: 16. Crop Duster. A hidden run in that April 27 Highway was from Crop Duster, who was given none in that attempt and he made late inroads.

The four-year-old was bolters odds there despite a Wyong provincial run that was better than it reads and he was a little unlucky prior to that at Gosford.

He won over this track/trip on February 26 before going on a provincial route, while down in the weights and from a low draw, he does look over the odds.

Race 4 - 1:00PM Tooheys New Bm78 Handicap Tips (2100m)


Best: 11. Anderson Bridge. I expected more from him in the Frank Packer Plate, although as mentioned, that was a really testing surface at Randwick on April 20.

Kintyre franked that form by taking out the Group 2 Queensland Guineas, while Anderson Bridge comes back to benchmark company to take on seasoned gallopers.

He was looking for further than 2000m after his Tulloch Stakes run and if he's to be a genuine Queensland Derby chance, then he'd need to thereabouts here.

Value: 4. Perfect Play. His last two outings in Europe resulted in placings over 12 furlongs, so the rise to 2200m should suit at his second start for Annabel Neasham.

His 1800m Australian debut was a sound one, as while he lacked a turn-of-foot to win that brutally run race, Perfect Play stuck on well.

Quality-wise, this isn't much stronger than what he faced on April 25 and he appears to have enough tactical speed to roll forward at this trip.

Race 5 - 1:35PM Signarama Erina/Gosford 3&4yo BM72 Tips (1600m)


Best: 9. Scarlet Oak. Konasana is a weapon when she's on and that Waller filly relished wet ground at randwick on April 20 when taking out the James Carr Stakes.

Although she was well held in second, Scarlet Oak wasn't disgraced in her Australian debut, which was only a second start overall following a brilliant NZ victory.

She should find this easier and if they're looking to progress towards a Queensland Oaks next month, then the three-year-old should be putting this lot away.

Value: 14. Callistemon. We had this filly as a value selection in last Saturday's Midway, where she missed the kick and had to settle last as a result.

Callistemon did power home to finish six-of-twelve in that 1500m appearance and that outing followed an unlucky Kembla Grange run.

She has won her prior two to open her prep and while this assignment is harder than what she's faced so far, the three-year old is hard fit and going well.

Race 6 - 2:10PM Buterin L'estrange Gosford Gold Cup Tips (2100m)


Best: 10. Not Usual Glorious. The South Australian visitor would have preferred a Heavy 10 swamp at Gosford, however, he'll still get favourable conditions.

Not Usual Glorious us an out-and-out wet tracker and while this a step up on most of his appearances to date, it isn't a strong edition of the Gosford Cup.

The son of Fiorente won't know himself with 54kg and off an encouraging second-up run in the Warrnambool Cup, he's primed to give a big sight.

Value: 14. Verona. The Ciaron Maher-trained mare was too bad to be true in the Chairman's, where she was well in the market and a respiratory noise was detected post-race.

They wouldn't have pushed on if everything wasn't all clear and the five-year-old had been ticking over very nicely ahead of what looked a Sydney Cup path.

The short starting price vs Circle Of Fire reads superbly, with the subsequent Sydney Cup winner now heading the 2024 Melbourne Cup market.

Race 7 - 2:45PM De Bortoli Wines Takeover Target Stakes Tips (1200m)


Best: 10. Stefi Magnetica. It's a very weak Listed race and even trickier one for punters to work out, with a competitive early market assembled.

Stefi Magnetica could easily start fav giving the form around her last campaign, which culminated with a narrow loss at Group 1 level.

That Surround Stakes performance was no fluke, as she was fourth at Group 2 level prior to that but can she rediscover that touch straight away off one trial?
Value: 14. Wategos. A stablemate to Stefi Magnetica, Wategos is very genuine and while 1100m was a little sharp fresh, it was a decent return.

The son of Capitalist went to a whole new level last year, with 2023 finishing with a sixth in the Big Dance and second-up, he beat Brudenell over this trip.

Wategos comes right back in the weights for the Takeover Target Stakes and he has proven to be effective on all surfaces, so a testing 1200m may suit.

Race 8 - 3:20PM The Coast Tips (1600m)


Best: 9. Tavi Time. I think Tavi Time can win better races down the track and in The Coast, the Kris Lees-trained galloper can tick off a decent one on Saturday.

After taking out a Provincial Qualifier first-up, staying on that path worked against the son of Tavistock, as he appeared to be crying out for a mile after that fresh win.

He now gets to 1600m and with 6kg less from his unlucky Provincial Final appearance, he's superbly placed here, with wet ground and gate five both ticks.

Value: 1. Grebeni. The son of Ocean Park always takes a run to hit his straps and the resumption at Rosehill on April 27 was encouraging.

He's harshly treated with 59.5kg, especially given his major wins have come when down in the weights, although he won benchmark affairs with similar imposts.

His spring form stood up through Phearson, with that galloper now a two-time Group 3 winner and Grebeni is unbeaten form three second-up runs.

Race 9 - 4:00PM Triple M Thunder Thousand BM78 Handicap Tips (1000m)


Best: 5. Passeggiata. She's a short course specialist and it's somewhat interesting to note that her one victory past five furlongs did come on heavy ground.

Passeggiata saluted in grade last winter before running into Omni Man twice and the four-year-old has been given plenty of time ahead of her third prep.

It's not a bad BM78, as there's a few very progressive gallopers in this field but over the 900m scamper, this is the speedster that they'll need to catch.

Value: 11. Jambalaya. This Godolphin galloper looked as though he could be anything when saluting on debut at Moonee Valley as an odds-on fav.

Well he didn't go on with it, he still wasn't baiting all that far in those second and third-up outings, while he's won two April trials leading to this.

900m sprints are very different to six furlong races, however, he should be fine over this short trip, especially with gate one, as he can hold a position.

Race 10 - 4:40PM Railway Hotel BM78 Handicap Tips (1200m)


Best: 12. Heuristic. I don't mind the set-up for this Godolphin three-year-old, who performed a little above expectations first-up at Randwick-Kensington.

He was a notable drifter ahead of that April 25 return, a race which was taken out by a progressive Jedibeel, while the runner-up had some useful form lines.

Heuristic got warm late with 61kg over 1000m and now with 8kg less over a more suitable distance, he pounce off what's likely a soft run just behind the leaders.
Value: 10. Sir Ravanelli. This is harder than the two midweek contests he's faced so far this prep, although he was competitive in two Saturday BM78's before a spell.

Sir Ravanelli has been consistent in four metro outings since competing at Grafton last spring and he has caught the eye late in both of his autumn runs.

He appeared to be crying out for six furlongs off his last effort at Canterbury, where he was well backed and a wetter surface won't worry the grey.


Hawkesbury Quaddie Tips:


Race 7: 5,6,7,10,11,14,16
Race 8: 9
Race 9: 2,3,4,5,11
Race 10: 3,5,8,9,10,12

$210 gets you 100% of the Quaddie.
                  

Verdict

Our best & value tips for Saturday's Newcastle program are:

Best Bet1: Tavi Time To Win @11/5 at bet365 Australia - 5 Units
Best Bet2: Scarlet Oak To Win @17/5 at betM - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Not Usual Glorious Each Way @10/1 at Neds - 1 Unit
Best Bet4: Heuristic Each Way @15/2 at betM - 1 Unit
Tavi Time
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