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Morphettville Betting Tips for May 11, 2024 - Race-By-Race preview for Goodwood day

Last updated: 09 May 2024
Alex Marsh 09 May 2024
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  • The 2024 Adelaide Racing Carnival concludes on May 11
  • Good 4 is the current track reading
  • The Group 1 Goodwood headlines Saturday's card
  • Our race-by-race preview for is included below
Morphettville Tips for 11.05.2024
Pounding is well placed in The Cummings Stakes at Morphettville. (Getty)

The Adelaide Racing Carnival wraps up on May 11 and The Goodwood is run on the last day, which is Adelaide's most famous race.
  • Morphettville Tips May 11
  • Race 1 - 11:47AM Carbine Club of South Australia Inc. Handicap Tips (1050m)
  • Race 2 - 12:22PM SkyCity Handicap Tips (1800m)
  • Race 3 - 12:57PM Sportsbet David Coles AM Stakes Tips (1200m)
  • Race 4 - 1:32PM Sportsbet Ken and Helen Smith SA Fillies Classic Tips (2500m)
  • Race 5 - 2:07PM Thomas Farms Centaurea Stakes Tips (2019m)
  • Race 6 - 2:42PM Sportsbet Proud Miss Stakes Tips (1200m)
  • Race 7 - 3:22PM Hahn The Cummings Stakes Tips (1600m)
  • Race 8 - 4:00PM The Sportsbet Goodwood Tips (1200m)
  • Race 9 - 4:35PM Grand Syndicates Handicap Tips (1200m)

Our race-by-race preview for Saturday's feature program can be found below.

Morphettville Tips May 11

Race 1 - 11:47AM Carbine Club of South Australia Inc. Handicap Tips (1050m)

Best: 8. Grint. It's a really open race, with plenty of speed on paper for this 1050m dash and that could set it up for Grint, who is likely to settle off them.

He was well backed on debut early last August and while he couldn't land those bets, it was a terrific run given the race shape, as he come from back and wide in a leader-dominated race.

Given time to mature after what was just an even effort at start two, he was well held in an April 18 trial, but the Strathalbyn jump-out 11 days later was much sharper.

Value: 7. Dodd. He showed some promise early, with a runner-up finish at start in the Magic Millions 2YO Classic at Murray bridge and he was spelled after his third run.

While he couldn't progress last spring, Dodd has improved this time in, with the gelding backing up a slashing Oakbank return to breakthrough second-up.

Given he was forced to settle off the speed last start in a race where the backmarkers didn't figure out wide, I'm willing to forgive that run, especially from a better draw here.

Race 2 - 12:22PM SkyCity Handicap Tips (1800m)

Best: 10. Enciphering. The each-way odds for Enciphering are enticing, a three-year old who appeared to be on a Derby path before putting in a poor run on April 6.

He then dropped in grade for a Gawler kill on April 25, which has given him nice confidence, as he followed that up with a strong chasing effort behind a handy Sir Kingsford.

Well he needs to handle the back-up, that certainly looks the right form line for this, as that winner would be a pretty firm fav here and Enciphering draws kinder this time.
Value: 12. Master At Arms. Although he hasn't been the easiest to catch from a winning perspective, Master Of Arms has been thereabouts in stronger races than this.

His last win came via a BM74 last spring, so a 0-68 is well within reach and the gelding has been freshened up off two unlucky outings on the Parks circuit.

This five-year-old found trouble at key stages in his last few starts and as a horse who needs momentum to build into his races, the wide draw isn't necessarily a negative.

Race 3 - 12:57PM Sportsbet David Coles AM Stakes Tips (1200m)

Best: 3. Karavas. They were all outclassed by Growing Empire in the Breeders' Stakes, with the Ciaron Maher-trained colt recording a big win that Group 3.

Blinkers go on Karavas following what was somewhat of a plain run there, but her prior form lines, especially from Flemington last spring really stands out in this field.

Her fresh form through Lincolnshire ties in a little better through Symphony Of Colour (fav), although it's worth noting that Lincolnshire was three-wide throughout in The Showdown.

Value: 2. Colmar. Ron Daniel & Trish Stanbury prepare Colmar, a two-year-old who showed potential throughout three runs in his first prep, which included a big Boxing Day win here.

That victory followed a debut third behind Wolfgang and Dancing Storm, while the campaign finished in January, where he tired late in a race won by Kuroyanagi.

That form was strong in Melbourne, with Kuroyanagi just missing in the Blue Diamond Prelude before a third in the Blue Diamond Stakes and that form stood-up in Sydney.

Race 4 - 1:32PM Sportsbet Ken and Helen Smith SA Fillies Classic Tips (2500m)

Best: 9. Sun Gift. Positivity (fav) stands out on ratings in this field as a Group 3 winner in NZ as well as being NZ Oaks placed, however, she was plain in the Australasian Oaks.

Without confidence in the race, I'm leaning towards Sun Gift, a filly who is seemingly crying out for 2500m, with the daughter of Savabeel catching the eye once again at Cranbourne on may 3.

Through Derozario and Saban, her maiden form in Victoria is okay and along with being suited on this bigger circuit, the blinkers have also been applied for the first time.

Value: 8. Kowhai. This Michael Moroney-trained filly has relished getting out in trip via her last two Victorian runs, with the first of those being a strong chasing effort at Pakenham.

Kowhai went on to breakthrough at Seymour on April 19 and she was made to earn that win, with the three-year old holding off a strong late challenge from Samurai.

That runner-up franked the form with a soft maiden victory on May 3, while Retourne finished third in that Seymour event and he appears to have a future.

Race 5 - 2:07PM Thomas Farms Centaurea Stakes Tips (2019m)

Best: 4. Sea What I See. Aiming to go six-from-six this prep is Sea What I See, a four-year-old who has really furnished this prep and she's ticked the 2000m box comfortably via her last two.

It's been savvy placement from trainer Danny O'Brien to take her through the grades and for the rise to Listed level on Saturday, she carries 3.5kg less from her last outing.

Connections will be looking for some black-type before tipping her out for the spring and as far as Listed races go, they couldn't have found a more softer option if they tried.
Value: 7. Rivaport. Following a return to form in Sydney, we gave Rivaport a sniff at a big price in the Queen Of The South and she was admirable in midfield there.

Not only did a slow tempo work against her via that April 27 attempt but she was also back to a mile and going off her 1900m performance at Rosehill, the mare may need further now.

A stronger predicted tempo will suit on Saturday and with even luck in transit from a low draw, the Grahame Begg-trained galloper has at least top three claims.

Race 6 - 2:42PM Sportsbet Proud Miss Stakes Tips (1200m)

Best: 5. Treasurway. Admittedly her winning strike is poor, however, she's generally thereabouts at this level and she was a Group 3 winner here as two-year-old over the last carnival.

Treasurway recorded one of the better runs in the Redelva Stakes on April 13, where she was forced to switch course at a key stage and the mare was luckless last start.

Behind the impressive Skybird, who is a genuine Goodwood chance, Treasurway found major trouble on multiple occasions in the straight, yet she recovered and found the line late.

Value: 16. Aviatress. I'm a fan of this filly and while she faces her toughest test in this group 3, they were always heading here and she's one of the few with upside in this field.

After winning their first two starts last spring, Aviatress held her own when fourth in the Group 3 Red Roses up the Flemington straight, where she made ground from off the speed.

She didn't appear to beat much when saluting fresh on April 27,. but that 0-68 rated quite well for the meeting and she's expected to have improved from that outing.

Race 7 - 3:22PM Hahn The Cummings Stakes Tips (1600m)

Best: 2. Pounding. He ran an absolute cracker first-up in the Country Discovery, which was contested over six furlongs and that sprint trip is well short of his best.

Pounding was then a drifting fav on VOBIS Day and while he appeared just fair in that attempt, it's well worth noting that the on-speed bias was strong early on that program.

His closing splits were still respectable and he generally taken a few runs to his straps, so now back to set weights and penalties, he's very well placed (was contesting Group 1's this time last prep).

Value: 8. Pudding. He always looked a stakes class horse and the son of Tavistock proved that last spring when taking out the Listed John Letts before being spelled.

He beat Captain Envious in that triumph, a rival who won the Ballarat cup three starts later and third-up on April 6, Captain Envious took out the Group 3 Easter Cup at Caulfield.

After a slow start to the autumn, Pudding improved third-up on April 27 and it should be noted that his winning form started fourth-up last prep, so he just need a few runs these days.

Race 8 - 4:00PM The Sportsbet Goodwood Tips (1200m)

Best: 2. Amelia's Jewel. While there are queries with the WA star staying at 1200m, I feel her naysayers are really underrating her sprinting form, which includes a last start second behind Overpass.

They settled closer in The Quokka behind the eventual winner, who grows another leg in Perth and if you take out his Everest run, then Overpass has been a genuine topliner.

The blinkers go on in her final start for Simon Miller, with the Perth trainer noting that Amelia's Jewel had come back bigger this campaign, so there's clearly improvement to come.

Next Best: 16. Skybird. A talented three-year-old who won her first three races in style last spring, Skybird returned to winning form last start over this track/trip via the Tobin Bronze Stakes.

Although the Victorian is likely to prosper over 1400m-1600m, her turn-of-foot has been on display over sprint trips and she was able pinch early runs last start to land closer.

Skybird looks the real x-factor in this field, while she's still very lightly raced with a ceiling that could be anything and the filly carries 2.5kg less for this third-up assignment.

Value: 4. Sghirripa. The D C McKay Stakes (now John Hawkes Stakes) is the traditional lead-up and it's often an underrated form line, as long priced Goodwood winners have been produced.

Despatch (2019) and Savatoxl (2021) took out this feature at big odds after winning that race, while Santa Ana Lane (2018) was a 25/1 Goodwood winner after an obvious flashing light run.

Sghirripa in not only better in at the weights here, but it's also worth noting that he spent 18 days in the paddock via his freshen-up, so there's a platform to really spike here.

Race 9 - 4:35PM Grand Syndicates Handicap Tips (1200m)

Best: 14. Sachem. The son of Street Boss brings an obvious last start reference through Aviatress, with Sachem coming from back in the field to finish second behind that smart filly.

The clock backed-up that performance, as he recorded the fastest last 800m, 600m and 400m of the meeting and stepping up an extra 100m second-up looks ideal.

He was on stable debut for the Will Clarken & Niki O'Shea yard there and the gelding was specked at a price late, while with any improvement, he looks the one to beat in the last.
Value: 16. Togetherforever. The main threat to the fav appears to be Togetherforever, a lightly raced four-year-old, who bolted in with a Ballarat maiden second-up on April 3.

Jamie Kah has been aboard the daughter of Impending all prep, with the latest being a BM64 on the Caulfield Heath circuit and that was a better run than it looked.

Togetherforever was off the speed in that small field and unsuited by the pattern, but she got stronger as it wore on (fastest last 200m) and I felt she was looking for 1200m off that.


Our best & value bets for Saturday's Morphettville meeting are:

Best Bet1: Sea What I See To Win @11/10 at betfair - 4 Units
Best Bet2: Pounding To Win @43/10 at Boombet - 3 Units
Best Bet3: Enciphering Each Way @11/1 at betM - 2 Units
Best Bet4: Treasurway Each Way @50/1 at bet365 Australia - 1 Unit
Sea What I See
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@11/10 - 4 Units
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Betting Slip | 11 May 2024

Morphettville - May 11