Race 1 - 11:26AM G.H. Mumm Handicap Tips (2014 METRES)
Any runner in this field could lob without surprising. 7. LAUNDY does look well placed crossing the border and stepping up to 2000m now third-up is plus. He whacked away fairly fresh over 1400m before a fair effort over 1800m at Caulfield and you can tie that form through Canford via Dreamed who he safely held there. Will go forward under Oliver and although limited, can get away with this.
5. Canford looked a promising stayer early and following an ordinary 2020 campaign, has bounced back well, stringing many competitive efforts together. Hard fit and dropping back from 2500m, he can chime in late if they overdo it up front.
While 2. Dr Dependable has no turn-of-foot, but he's much better suited stepping up in trip and this gelding always takes at least a few runs to hit his straps. Draws for a soft run under Holder from barrier two and is capable enough in this grade.
There was somewhat surprisingly a little move at odds for 6. Manzala fresh, but he weakened late with 61.5kg. Has trialled twice since that April 21 attempt and was super consistent last autumn/winter in similar company.
Race 2 - 12:01PM David Coles AM Stakes Tips (Formerly National Stakes) (1200 METRES)
Competitive two-year-old event that lacks a standout and one at big odds is 3. MAGIC MAX who is making a big step up in grade, but expecting natural improvement here at start two over a more suitable 1200m. From a wide gate, not much went right in the debut when balancing up late and the April 27 jump out win was superb. Off a good speed in the smaller field, he'll look to launch late.
Another that will be needing this track to play fair for the off-pace runners is the favourite 1. Karacasu who looked to have the Breeders Stakes won before Cloudy kicked back hard for a tough win. Is he looking for further than 1200m now?
4. Butter Blonde was Group Three placed at start two and was terrible in two subsequent efforts, but bounced back over the Warrnambool carnival when running her rivals ragged. The on-speed/rails bias of that circuit was a big advantage, however.
8. Legless Lady
was cricket score odds on debut but flew home for an eventual fourth behind the speedy See You In Spring. Is a big price again ($18.20 @ Sportsbetting
) and the step up in distance should only suit.
Race 3 - 12:36PM Fleurieu Milk Company Handicap Tips (1050 METRES)
After defeating a promising stable mate in Streetcar Stranger first-up over this track/trip, 6. KAYSERI had to wait another 10 starts before returning to the winners stall and defeated Alsvior yet again on October 10. That galloper had recorded back-to-back victories in-between that, including a win over Dexelation (Stakes placed at his last two). Draws for a soft run and has won a jump out ahead of this.
11. Maddox crosses the border following a dominant third-up win at Ballarat in decent time and that was a strong Class 1. More pressure here, but she drops down to the 54kg minimum and has drawn low. She seemingly has more upside than most of these.
2. Larimer Street has the services of Jamie Kah for his stable debut for David Jolly and as a two-year-old, split Group One winners Lunar Fox and Ole Kirk before recording a Listed victory. Won a Strathalbyn trial easily on April 30, albeit against mostly unexposed rivals.
Saluting in the last on May 8 at a big price was 5. Trygve, a gelding that is flying for his new yard. Now goes up in the weights a little but this isn't much harder and a good speed up front will suit.
Race 4 - 1:11PM TAB Proud Miss Stakes Tips (1200 METRES)
While the more conservative tactics have worked of late, I suspect the best chance for 10. SMOKIN' VAL is to bite the bullet and roll forward in this small field that lacks speed, rather than trying to sprint home with the two favourites. Since the blinkers have been applied, she's defeated subsequent winner Instant Celebrity and had little luck behind Beau Rossa a fortnight back, both of those runners chances in The Goodwood.
The first-up effort of 1. Rubisaki was much better than the seventh of 10 indicated and she backed that up with fast finishing third in the Sangster. Nearing in on D-day for this winnable assignment, but she'll need the breaks from an inside draw.
Easily the best weighted galloper in the field is 5. Brooklyn Hustle who has competed at Group One level via her last six attempts, but needs everything to go right in whatever she contests. Not one of mine although could easily blow this field away late.
If going longer in the exotics, then I wouldn't leave out 9. Lady Pavli Chenko
who is the outsider of the field ($81.00 @ WinnersBet
), but she can rattle off a big finish. This is obviously much harder albeit it's not a field littered with winners.
Race 5 - 1:51PM TAB SA Fillies Classic Tips (2500 METRES)
At start nine in what is still just her first racing preparation, it will take a monster training effort from James Cummings with 3. FLEXIBLE although with average form around many of her rivals, is the one to beat off an unlucky Australasian Oaks effort, a feature she arguably should've won. Has easily the best turn-of-foot in this field, but does need to tick the 2500m box which is a query on her breeding.
Kiwi filly 1. Llanacord lacked the class over 2000m in the Australasian Oaks, but the run had merit, getting off heels to find the line well. Her NZ Oaks effort suggests this distance is much more suitable and expect Todd Pannell to try to settle closer from an inside draw.
4. Mimi's Award has looked super impressive via her last two in Victoria, firstly a Maiden over 1600m before an absolute demolition at 10 furlongs. Hasn't beaten anything it must be said and is likely working early from a wider draw. Interesting runner.
rounded out the top four in last Saturday's Derby and there's no doubting this is much easier back against fillies. Was Group Three placed prior to that and the pick of the double figure chances ($16.00 @ Ladbrokes
Race 6 - 2:31PM Centaurea Stakes Tips (2014 METRES)
Second-up off a long spell (18 months) in the Queen Of The South was 4. SHOP TIL I DROP, recording another second placing staying at 1600m and was very unlucky there with the eventual inside passage not opening until the 100m. Unbeaten from three attempts past a mile which includes a 2000m win at Morphettville, this screams as one that is ready to peak on Saturday. With even luck, she's best of the day.
If looking outside the Queen Of The South form, then there is appeal with 9. Zayydani who was midfield in last years Australasian Oaks before a fourth in a strong edition of the SA Derby. Now at her fourth run back, the step up in distance looks a big plus.
Not sure what to make of 1. In Good Health as on first glance, the effort a fortnight back looked a little plain but in reality, she's boxed on okay. The blinkers now go on and she should be able to take up the running. Hasn't run out the 2000m in two prior attempts, however.
Given 6. Makimak
had clean air when a few didn't, she was perhaps flattered a little with her last start third albeit still made ground and was good through the line. Is at least a top three/four chance for the exotics at a fair price ($14.00 @ WinnersBet
Race 7 - 3:11PM R A Lee Stakes Tips (1600 METRES)
Ultimately, 10. HASTA LA WAR was just one run short second-up and given he was 1200m-1600m off a 14 months spell, adds further merit to that performance. Still spotting them plenty of ground at the 100m, he launched late. recording easily the fastest last 600m of that May 1 contest (33.89). This is obviously much harder, but he's got his fair share of class and is very much on an upwards spiral.
While 6. Vassilator isn't a galloper I'd want to be taking sub $4 for given he generally mixes his form, the last start Flemington win was brilliant, defeating Holbein who bolted in last Saturday by four lengths. This will be the five-year-old's first attempt outside of Victoria.
8. Lord Vladivostok looked a good thing on paper via the May 1 meeting here and was a big drifter after opening up at odds-on quote. Still appeared to have that race shot to bits before hitting the wall late. Is this the target? (was off a big freshen-up there).
Although 1. Pacodali
is getting on in years it was a nice effort at Sandown on resumption and while a mile is as short as he wants it, the second-up stats are okay. Is well placed under the set weights plus penalties conditions and has claims at decent odds ($15.00 @ bet365
Race 8 - 3:52PM The Furphy Goodwood Tips (1200 METRES)
1. BEHEMOTH has been one of the great racing stories with the $6,000 yearling purchase now having accrued more than $2.5 million in prize money which includes back-to-back Group One victories in Melbourne last spring. Freshened-up off a very brave performance in the All-Star Mile, both jump outs have been faultless ahead of this return. Craig Williams jumps off the Sangster winner to continue his association.
The most consistent sprinter in the country for the best part of two years has been 2. Gytrash who has an outstanding 2020 resume at the highest level, winning the Lightning Stakes first-up before Group One placings in the William Reid Stakes and Newmarket Handicap.
Tony & Calvin McEvoy also prepare 6. Savatoxl
who will roll along early from an inside draw and as he has proven now multiple times, including two Stakes wins at Morphettville, he can be very galloper to get past on a good speed if a break is pinched. Can give a sight at a big price ($19.00 @ Unibet
I've got plenty of time for the Sangster winner 9. Instant Celebrity, who could very well announce herself on Saturday but given $9 was available a fortnight ago in a much easier affair, she's no spoil here at around $6. Will likely be spotting them a start.
Race 9 - 4:35PM Carbine Club of South Australia Inc. Handicap Tips (1200 METRES)
Looks a near repeat of the 64 a fortnight ago, a race which 12. AMBIDAZZLE should've won after being held up until the 150m then when getting the run late, dived to just miss on the line. She's been in work for what seems like an eternity but is holding her form and if anything, the wider alley this time around suits here. Craig Williams jumps and although an even affair, she should be in the mix.
The 60kg fresh is an ask 1. Extreme Class
, but on ability and off his last first-up attempt, is well and truly over the odds here ($19.00 @ bet365
). This gelding was a little unlucky when finishing just off Star Hills, who won his next four and is now an 84-rater. That reads superbly for this grade.
They've opted for the claim with 7. Lady Dunmore which sees her stay at 58kg, her winning weight from May 1 where she completed back-to-back victories. Won three of her last four and continues to be well placed. No knock on her.
Finishing just over a few lengths off Ambidazzle and Lady Dunmore was 10. Perfect Command with Damian Lane sticking with the veteran second-up. Not an easy galloper to catch, but ideally landing a pair or two closer from an inside draw, is in the mix.
MORPHETTVILLE QUADDIE TIPS: